2006 a bust???

[Cyclenall]

Well then, that is settled. The Pacific no longer exists. Personally, the last time Florida got hit by a Pacific hurricane, it was awful.

I don't get it?

If people think the Tropics are so boring this season then go do something else for a while.

We can't, the tropics change way too fast.

[senorpepr]

Well then, that is settled. The Pacific no longer exists. Personally, the last time Florida got hit by a Pacific hurricane, it was awful.

I don't get it?

You are trying too hard.

[TampaSteve]

Maybe people ought to define what a bust is? For me a bust is one landfalling hurricane and what it brings. A great season is one where we have days and days of big powerful storms drifting through the Atlantic. Fun to watch, fun to track and fun to watch drift harmlessly away. A perfect year is when nature does it job taking the heat from the tropical Atlantic and dumping it into the cooler north Atlantic. Never ceases to amaze me how disappointed the posts become when we have a "fish" storm.

As a Florida resident, I'll take a whole season of "fish storms" any year!

[NFLDART]

Maybe people ought to define what a bust is? For me a bust is one landfalling hurricane and what it brings. A great season is one where we have days and days of big powerful storms drifting through the Atlantic. Fun to watch, fun to track and fun to watch drift harmlessly away. A perfect year is when nature does it job taking the heat from the tropical Atlantic and dumping it into the cooler north Atlantic. Never ceases to amaze me how disappointed the posts become when we have a "fish" storm.

As a Florida resident, I'll take a whole season of "fish storms" any year!

AMEN to that

[gilbert88]

I don't even live near the coast, and after Emily and Gert last year I can sincerely say I hate SLOW tropical storms.

[canegrl04]

All it takes is one mother of a hurricane(ala Andrew) and a season can not be called a bust.I have a feeling Florence will be this year's Andrew.Especially if she gets into the GOM with the still untouched super warm,deep waters

[Frank2]

I'd never use boom or bust to describe a season, but, while the past two seasons were very busy, and, while this year is still somewhat above normal as far as the number of named systems, the environment is not nearly as favorable as it was the past two seasons.

Some are thinking a busy September is possible, but, even in busy seasons like last year, September means the change in seasons is upon the tropics, and, as the weeks go by, the environment is likely only to become more and more unfavorable - it might remain busy as far as potential systems, but, the environment may not allow for any other than potential systems, rather than named or well-developed cyclones (as might be the case with TD 6).

Frank

[DanKellFla]

HurricaneBill, I am sitting here laughing at a picture of a bust. My wife is just looking at me funny at walking away.

[DanKellFla]

canegrl04, If you get that one right, e-mail me and we will talk stock picks.

[TheShrimper]

Can I get in on that one too?

[brunota2003]

Well then, that is settled. The Pacific no longer exists. Personally, the last time Florida got hit by a Pacific hurricane, it was awful.

I don't get it?

You are trying too hard.

If you dont get it, I second senorpepr, you need to just simply go back and read the post until you get it...it has something to do with Pacific hurricanes hitting Florida...something just does not seem right there...

[wxmann_91]

Well then, that is settled. The Pacific no longer exists. Personally, the last time Florida got hit by a Pacific hurricane, it was awful.

I don't get it?

You are trying too hard.

If you dont get it, I second senorpepr, you need to just simply go back and read the post until you get it...it has something to do with Pacific hurricanes hitting Florida...something just does not seem right there...

It was sarcasm. Pacific means calm. Thus, a Pacific hurricane wouldn't be too bad.

[DanKellFla]

wxmann_91, Nope.... I am not that clever. I was refering to the previous post to that comment about only paying attention to one particular basin. I was also in a funny mood that day.

[Weatherfreak000]

Why is this season a "bust"??


Let's look back.


1995- 6 Hurricanes formed by now
1996- 5 Hurricanes by now.
1997- 2 Hurricanes by now. (An even an El Nino year)
1998- 3 Hurricanes by now.
1999- 3 Hurricanes by now.
2000- 2 Hurricane by now.
2001- 1 Hurricane by now.
2002- 0
2003- 4 Hurricanes by now.
2004- 5 Hurricanes by now.
2005- 6 Hurricanes by now.

So within a 10 year average we have somewhere around 3.7 Hurricanes. I daresay I won't even count Ernesto.

So based on this what seems to happy with seasons puttering along at this point?


Seasons with one hurricane up to this point within the past 20 years average something like 18 Canes and 7 Majors so divided by something like 5 or 6 with the years that it has for that, (I forget the exact number but I may be being generous)

3.6 Canes coming, 1.4 Majors.


So that's basically what we have coming, also this name set we're using is almost criminal with weaker storm seasons, go back and look (of course the year when Gilbert and Joan formed are exceptions)


But usually this nameset we're using has storms that always seem to stay weak with weak storm starts. Maybe it's just destiny?

[Jim Cantore]

At this point

Named storms

2006: 6
1999: 5

[TampaSteve]

At this point

Named storms

2006: 6
1999: 5

That stat doesn't tell the whole story.

1999
------
Tropical Storm Arlene 06/11 - 06/18 60 mph 1006 mb
Hurricane Bret 08/18 - 08/25 145 mph 944 mb
Hurricane Cindy 08/19 - 08/31 140 mph 942 mb
Hurricane Dennis 08/24 - 09/08 105 mph 962 mb
Tropical Storm Emily 08/24 - 08/28 50 mph 1004 mb
---> 9/05 <---
Hurricane Floyd 09/07 - 09/19 155 mph 921 mb
Hurricane Gert 09/11 - 09/23 150 mph 930 mb
Tropical Storm Harvey 09/19 - 09/22 60 mph 995 mb
Hurricane Irene 10/12 - 10/19 110 mph 960 mb
Hurricane Jose 10/17 - 10/25 100 mph 979 mb
Tropical Storm Katrina 10/28 - 11/01 40 mph 999 mb
Hurricane Lenny 11/13 - 11/23 155 mph 933 mb

2006
------
Tropical Storm Alberto 06/10 - 06/14 70 mph 995 mb
Tropical Storm Beryl 07/18 - 07/21 60 mph 1001 mb
Tropical Storm Chris 08/01 - 08/05 65 mph 1001 mb
Tropical Storm Debby 08/21 - 08/27 50 mph 1000 mb
Hurricane Ernesto 08/24 - 09/01 75 mph 988 mb
Tropical Storm Florence 09/03 - 09/05 40 mph 1005 mb
---> 9/05 <---

As you can see, by this date (9/5) in 1999, we had already had 3 hurricanes, 2 of them Cat 4. 2 more Cat 4 storms formed over the next week. This year, we have only 1 storm that even made it to minimal hurricane status so far (Ernesto), and only for a few hours at that.

There is no comparison between this year and 1999 so far, IMHO.