T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

[tgenius]

04/1745 UTC 16.8N 43.1W T2.5/2.5 06L -- Atlantic Ocean

I see the T# has maintained at 2.5, I wonder if it will be enough for NHC to bump it to Florence @5.

[Grease Monkey]

It seems like the nhc doesn't pay any attention to that.

[HURAKAN]

Any new QUIKSCAT information?

[Trugunzn]

hERE IT IS:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?508,220

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

Looking better.

[SouthFloridawx]

hERE IT IS:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?508,220

Lookin good.

[tgenius]

So the $64,000 dollar question is:

Does Dvorak of 2.5 + Improved Visable Sat Imagery + Quickscat looking good = Florence @ 5?

[Trugunzn]

Can someone post the GFDL, im having trouble

[JonathanBelles]

its starting to shear.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Can someone post the GFDL, im having trouble

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[windycity]

Pics DO look impressive, better than ernie at this point. What kind of SSTs are we looking at, not that it matters much if other conditions arent highly favorable in this area.

[Grease Monkey]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006090412-six06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I still think of alice and wonderland at this point.

[Windtalker1]

its starting to shear.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I don't see that...if you compare yesterday to today there seems to be less shear now.

[SouthFloridawx]

its starting to shear.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I don't see that...if you compare yesterday to today there seems to be less shear now.

Shear tendency is down with favorable conditions ahead.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Trugunzn]

hERE IT IS:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?508,220

SHOWS ALOT OF 30-35KT WINDS AND ONE 40KT WIND, I still think it will be upgraded later today or tonight

[bobbisboy]

The trough has stopped digging south and TD6 if approaching the the base of it. Once the trough begins to lift and TD6 turns west, I would expect more rapid intensification than is now called for. Think of similar situations with Floyd and Andrew. Both exploded when the affects of a trough lifted and the storms turned west. The VERY large question is not whether a high will build in now and guide TD to a position off the SE CONUS but what the setup will be once it does. Seems that a faster track will find a trough while a slower track may find yet another building ridge. The former would be a harmless recurve, the later would be a potential disaster. This one is worth staying closely focused on.

[AnnularCane]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006090412-six06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I still think of alice and wonderland at this point.

Why is that?

I heard she was getting better organized. Although that was from TWC...

[fci]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006090412-six06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I still think of alice and wonderland at this point.

Ooohhhh, a "call back " to a post yesterday!

[clfenwi]

Two things:

1. The AFWA's Dvorak estimate remains 2.0/2.0
TPNT KGWC 041830
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
B. 04/1731Z (74)
C. 16.1N/8
D. 43.7W/4
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T2.0/2.0/STT: S0.0/21HRS -04/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIEDLING AN UNREP DT OF 2.5. FT BASED ON PT.
MET AGREES.

AODT: T2.3 (CRVD BND)

HAMILTON/WEAVER


2. That Quikscat image is the same one the forecaster had in hand this morning despite the SSD's (and maybe TAFB's ?) estimste of 35 knots. There won't be another pass until this evening (2310Z according to the NRL pass log).

[Grease Monkey]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006090412-six06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I still think of alice and wonderland at this point.

Why is that?

I heard she was getting better organized. Although that was from TWC...

Way too early to predict that far ahead in intensity and track. Things can change drastically. I just see these models as a form of entertainment for the time being.