T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

[tgenius]

Two things:

1. The AFWA's Dvorak estimate remains 2.0/2.0
TPNT KGWC 041830
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
B. 04/1731Z (74)
C. 16.1N/8
D. 43.7W/4
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T2.0/2.0/STT: S0.0/21HRS -04/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIEDLING AN UNREP DT OF 2.5. FT BASED ON PT.
MET AGREES.

AODT: T2.3 (CRVD BND)

HAMILTON/WEAVER


2. That Quikscat image is the same one the forecaster had in hand this morning despite the SSD's (and maybe TAFB's ?) estimste of 35 knots. There won't be another pass until this evening (2310Z according to the NRL pass log).

Forgive my ignorance on Dvorak readings, but if these are showing T2.0, where does the 2.5 # come from?

[storms in NC]

Frances enocuntered 25KT of westerly shear in the Bahamas. That will rapidly weaken any major hurricane

Okay that sounds good. But But I do beleave that we are in the same weather pattern as in 1999. JMO. It is a F name and the east coast like F name.LOL


I have read a bit on here about being . Will if you are bored don't have any thing to do you can come here and help out the people that lost homes from the flood here from Ernesto. Even the fire Dept got flooded. So I am sure someone could use your help. We still have Hwy 41 shut down from I40 east. I live on Hwy 41. Roads washed out or flooded acrossed the road. Not boreing in my neck of the woods. I live in the middle of a lake.

Now on to TD6 I will be keeping a good eye out on her. But lets hope for a fish storm.

[Derek Ortt]

Three different agencies give Dvorak readings

[HURAKAN]

Derek Ortt, What do you think, Florence @ 5 or the waiting game continues?

[tgenius]

Three different agencies give Dvorak readings

Derek, is there one that supercedes the other 2 or are they all given equal importance?

[Frank2]

I don't know what Derek would say, but, it doesn't look very impressive at this time - it may not even have a closed circulation...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Windtalker1]

I don't know what Derek would say, but, it doesn't look very impressive at this time - it may not even have a closed circulation...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Quikscat shows otherwise. http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?508,220

[StormWarning1]

Looks like the LLC is at 16.9N and 43.0W, moving more North than expected.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
Click on the storm and move your mouse cursor while watching the lat and lon at the bottom left.

[Frank2]

Too true, but, the visible loop just doesn't give the same impression...

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KWBC 041906
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (AL062006) ON 20060904 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060904 1800 060905 0600 060905 1800 060906 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.6N 43.3W 17.8N 44.9W 18.9N 46.3W 19.7N 47.7W
BAMM 16.6N 43.3W 17.8N 45.1W 18.7N 46.7W 19.1N 48.0W
A98E 16.6N 43.3W 17.7N 45.0W 18.9N 46.6W 19.9N 48.4W
LBAR 16.6N 43.3W 18.1N 44.7W 19.6N 46.1W 21.2N 47.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060906 1800 060907 1800 060908 1800 060909 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.5N 49.4W 21.8N 53.2W 23.0N 57.4W 24.4N 61.5W
BAMM 19.3N 49.6W 20.0N 52.7W 21.1N 55.6W 22.7N 58.7W
A98E 20.4N 50.8W 22.4N 55.9W 23.3N 61.7W 22.4N 66.5W
LBAR 22.7N 49.4W 25.6N 53.9W 27.6N 58.5W 30.1N 61.8W
SHIP 53KTS 64KTS 73KTS 84KTS
DSHP 53KTS 64KTS 73KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 43.3W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 41.5W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 39.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tr ... 20x486.jpg

Now these are the Sea Surface Temps of a true Hurricane Season.

[Derek Ortt]

I think the T 2.5 estimates ar eplacing a little too much emphasis on the curvature of the pattern, rather than the intensity and scattered nature of the patters. I'd give this a 1.5/1.5 or a 2.0/2.0

[superfly]

I don't know what Derek would say, but, it doesn't look very impressive at this time - it may not even have a closed circulation...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

It has a very clear LLC

[canegrl04]

YIKES The closer it gets to the US coast,the stronger it will become(provided shear is weak). There is a deep pocket (200 feet) of extra warm water in the GOM that can supersize any storm or cane quickly

[wxman57]

I don't know what Derek would say, but, it doesn't look very impressive at this time - it may not even have a closed circulation...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

It has a very clear LLC

I would agree with Derek. The LLC is not very well-defined. I do see convection increasing north of the apparent LLC now, and moisture from 98L continues to flow northeastward into the depression. It's very slowly consolidating. Could be a TS tomorrow afternoon.

Interesting 12Z ECMWF. While the GFS indicates "Florence" tracking off to the north (again, same GFS that shoved Ernesto into Mexico early on), the ECMWF has it slowing down and possibly being blocked by high pressure building off the east U.S. Coast next Monday. I calculated a movement of 340/08 kts from 12Z Sunday to 12Z Monday from the ECMWF positions. Definitely slowing down, and possibly being blocked westward. Since the center is passing 30N by next Monday, the threat would appear to be to the Mid Atlantic Coast northward if it does get blocked. Wouldn't rule out SC, though. Looking very unlikely it would hit Florida and/or move into the Gulf, still:

ECMWF Valid 12Z Sept. 11th:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence5.gif

[gatorcane]

looks like the folks along the east coast of Florida including South Florida need to monitor this situation - albeit without getting to anxious yet.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Darn it its eating 98L...Which has a nice LLC to. What a shame. This system looks like it has pass the trough axis, with a high building north of it. So it has turned westward or west-northwestward. Strong upper level shear ahead of it is pushing the convection to the north and northeast of the LLC. This thing is very close to tropical storm strength by its looks. This year is not allowing anything to go.

We might make it through the whole season with out a major. 1997 had one major with a landfalling hurricane.

[Frank2]

We'll see what they say at 5 - while it has some curvature to the cloud field, it just does not look as impressive as it did yesterday morning...

Just my observation...

Frank

[Toadstool]

This year is not allowing anything to go.
We might make it through the whole season with out a major. 1997 had one major with a landfalling hurricane.

Hopefully, though September is definitely a rough month. Look at the month's in which Cat 5's have formed (I'm not suggesting this is anything like a Cat5), and you see the list for Sept goes on much longer than any other.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ca ... _in_season

[jhamps10]

Darn it its eating 98L...Which has a nice LLC to. What a shame. This system looks like it has pass the trough axis, with a high building north of it. So it has turned westward or west-northwestward. Strong upper level shear ahead of it is pushing the convection to the north and northeast of the LLC. This thing is very close to tropical storm strength by its looks. This year is not allowing anything to go.

We might make it through the whole season with out a major. 1997 had one major with a landfalling hurricane.

Yeah, but wouldn't TD 6 get 98L's LLC if it eats it up, which to my untrained eye it appears to be doing.