Strong Looking Tropical Wave in the Caribbean
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Strong Looking Tropical Wave in the Caribbean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg
Deep reds are developing over a Caribbean wave. Shear seems favorable for development. Any Thoughts?
Deep reds are developing over a Caribbean wave. Shear seems favorable for development. Any Thoughts?
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Okay thanks. I just thought that this forum needed life since TD#6 is sad looking and apparently is under the impression that the dry air will diappate it..
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
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- x-y-no
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The most recent TWD mentioned this area:
I'm not convinced the comment about this being associated convection sheared ahead of the wave is correct, it looks more to me like there's just local abundant moisture and convection driven by upper-level divergence.
Seems to me the area is worth watching when the wave gets there in the next couple of days.
And despite all the forecasts of it's impending dissipation, the upper level trough which killed 99L is still hanging about, so who know if anything which did form would survive very long ...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED ALONG 55W FROM 8N-21N. THIS
RELOCATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS
WHICH SHOW A CLEAR LOW CLOUD INVERTED V WAVE STRUCTURE. ALL OF
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED WELL AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 60W-66W. THIS POORLY ORGANIZED
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE W NEAR 10 KT OR SO.
I'm not convinced the comment about this being associated convection sheared ahead of the wave is correct, it looks more to me like there's just local abundant moisture and convection driven by upper-level divergence.
Seems to me the area is worth watching when the wave gets there in the next couple of days.
And despite all the forecasts of it's impending dissipation, the upper level trough which killed 99L is still hanging about, so who know if anything which did form would survive very long ...
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For the Central and Eastern GOM areas this wave looks to be the most promising to me. Pressures are remaining steady however at the PR observation stations 29.92 (1012) and 29.93 (1013) but are lower than the area in the NW Bahamas mentioned in the 5:30 Two. Looks like I see a slight twist there as well.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html
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Is the wave you are talking about, associated with the convection blowing up in the Eastern Carib? If so, yes, it does really seem to be refiring this morning. Check out the below Sat, IF that's the one you are speaking of.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg
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- ConvergenceZone
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Zardoz wrote:It's firing up pretty nicely at the moment:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html
yep, convection is looking stronger every hour. I wouldn't be surprised to a an invest here within the next couple of days. I'm sure the reason many people aren't interested in this on this forum yet is because they want to see if the convection persists, and I can't blame there there. I'll keep an eye on this all day.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg
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It's definitely growing. Looks like it's getting fed from the northeast:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html
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