GFDL brings Florence down to 934MB in 126 hours

AussieMark · #21 Postby **AussieMark** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:55 am

in the latest runs the GFDL has backed off now

now only has it at reaching 958 instead of 934

and going more North than west as in previous runs

shaggy · #22 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:07 am

yeah the last GFDL seems to be doing a hugo type steady WNW track.If thats the case then we better hope for a weakness closer to the coast so it can pull a recurve between EC and bermuda or the SE "MIGHT" have something to worry about.

#23 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:12 am

link to the latest run?

WmE · #24 Postby **WmE** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:14 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

MetroMike · #25 Postby **MetroMike** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:17 am

We should lock this thread as the title is out of date and incorrect now.

#26 Postby **Wthrman13** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:46 am

TampaSteve wrote:
Damn...that F4 just smashed that house...bam...gone...

Which F4 are you referring to? The June 24th, Manchester SD storm? That was rated an F4, I believe. The tornado he used the video probe in was on June 11th in Iowa (can't remember the name of the town it was near off the top of my head). I'm not sure about the damage it produced or its rating. Regardless, it's the first time anyone's succesfully retrieved video from within a tornado, and could end up being immensely useful for scientific investigations of the wind flow at ground level.

TampaSteve · #27 Postby **TampaSteve** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:33 pm

Wthrman13 wrote:
TampaSteve wrote:
Damn...that F4 just smashed that house...bam...gone...

Which F4 are you referring to? The June 24th, Manchester SD storm? That was rated an F4, I believe. The tornado he used the video probe in was on June 11th in Iowa (can't remember the name of the town it was near off the top of my head). I'm not sure about the damage it produced or its rating. Regardless, it's the first time anyone's succesfully retrieved video from within a tornado, and could end up being immensely useful for scientific investigations of the wind flow at ground level.

Saw it on the National Geographic website: http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm ... edia2.html

The footage of the house getting destroyed by the tornado appears in a couple of places, including the last part of the "Crunching Numbers" section.

One second the house is there, then BAM, it just disappears...the power of a big twister is just incredible!

Oh, BTW...do you have a link to the June 11th video from inside the tornado? I'd love to see that!

NFLDART · #28 Postby **NFLDART** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 1:11 pm

TCDS....OMG thats why i feel this way

Trugunzn · #29 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 1:14 pm

New Gfdl shows a stronger ridge

#30 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 1:17 pm

Trugunzn wrote:New Gfdl shows a stronger ridge

link?

Trugunzn · #31 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 1:21 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.0 42.6 305./ 9.9
6 16.1 43.2 279./ 6.6
12 16.8 44.5 297./14.3
18 17.1 45.5 283./ 9.8
24 17.4 46.3 290./ 8.2
30 17.6 47.2 285./ 7.9
36 18.2 47.6 323./ 8.0
42 18.7 48.3 307./ 7.9
48 19.9 48.7 340./12.5
54 20.7 50.1 300./14.9
60 21.4 51.6 294./16.0
66 21.9 53.3 286./15.9
72 22.2 54.9 281./15.1
78 22.6 56.5 284./15.5
84 22.9 57.9 282./13.7
90 23.0 59.3 276./13.0
96 23.4 61.0 283./15.1
102 23.3 62.1 269./10.9
108 23.6 63.0 289./ 8.7
114 23.8 64.1 277./10.1
120 24.0 65.1 282./ 9.1
126 24.4 65.7 303./ 7.3

moving more west shows that ridge is stronger on this run

#32 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 1:25 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Bane · #33 Postby **Bane** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 1:49 pm

the gfdl is going crazy with this system.

canegrl04 · #34 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:07 pm

Latest I heard on TWC was that this soon to be storm will take a more westerly track and wind up just North of Puerto Rico.I hope it doesn't take a ride up the east coast becasue my brother and his family have already suffered enough with Ernesto.Let it go out to sea,or into the GOM

gilbert88 · #35 Postby **gilbert88** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:09 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Let it go out to sea,or into the GOM

Out to sea is fine with me. :eek:

Cape Verde · #36 Postby **Cape Verde** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:19 pm

According to today's Houston Chronicle, the GFDL is going to be replaced by a new model, the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model.

First I've heard of that.

You can read the story here:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/world/4161285.html

#37 Postby **ericinmia** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:47 pm

^^^ its a Hurricane version of the WRF i believe....

jimvb · #38 Postby **jimvb** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:52 pm

This same article also said that GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET are the four major models hurricane forecasters use. I can easily get a hold of GFDL through http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ , GFS through http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml (and ETA/NAM too), and NOGAPS through https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... p_atlantic . But I can't find a suitable site for UKMET. The FSU site has UKMET but half the time half the images are missing. I have found some other sites, such as http://meteocentre.com/animate.php?lang ... 00Z%20ANIM , but this one gives continental North America instead of the North Atlantic, where many hurricanes are.

Where's a good site to track hurricanes down using the UKMET?

Cape Verde · #39 Postby **Cape Verde** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:10 pm

I'm not good enough at selecting the right criteria, but you might try this site.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ukmet.html

Josephine96 · #40 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:13 pm

I don't know if most if us Floridians like that GFDL ya have posted up there..

GFDL brings Florence down to 934MB in 126 hours

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