T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2
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- Hybridstorm_November2001
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Not sure if this has been posted, so here goes:
...CENTRAL/EAST...
ACROSS THE NORTH EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NRN THIRD/HALF OF THE REGION. THIS
FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LGT TO MDT RNFL. NRN PLAINS TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
FRONT. ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE WEST MAY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION
OVER THE S-CNTRL PLAINS BY THU/FRI. ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND NEWD INTO
THE MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS/WRN OH VLY BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW FLOW ALOFT EVOLVES FARTHER N. FURTHER
ENERGY/MOISTURE MAY STREAM NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD. ERN GULF/SE COASTS SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RNFL
THRU THE PERIOD... WITH A WEAKENING STNRY FRONT PROVIDING SOME
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY INTO FRI. AWAY FROM LOCATIONS THAT SEE DAYTIME
RNFL... TEMPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CNTRL/ERN STATES SHOULD
BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
...TROPICS...
CONSULT TPC DISCUSSIONS AND ADVISORIES FOR LATEST INFO REGARDING
T.D. SIX IN THE ATLANTIC. BASED ON 15Z ADVISORY... THIS SYSTEM IS
FCST TO REACH HURCN STRENGTH BY DAYS 4-5 FRI-SAT. WITH GUIDANCE
DEPICTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG/E OF THE EAST COAST BY DAYS 6-7...
COORDINATED TPC/HPC TRACK DEPICTS AN INCREASED NWD COMPONENT AT
THAT TIME... KEEPING THE SYSTEM EAST OF 70W.
RAUSCH/CISCO
Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
...CENTRAL/EAST...
ACROSS THE NORTH EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NRN THIRD/HALF OF THE REGION. THIS
FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LGT TO MDT RNFL. NRN PLAINS TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
FRONT. ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE WEST MAY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION
OVER THE S-CNTRL PLAINS BY THU/FRI. ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND NEWD INTO
THE MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS/WRN OH VLY BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW FLOW ALOFT EVOLVES FARTHER N. FURTHER
ENERGY/MOISTURE MAY STREAM NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD. ERN GULF/SE COASTS SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RNFL
THRU THE PERIOD... WITH A WEAKENING STNRY FRONT PROVIDING SOME
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY INTO FRI. AWAY FROM LOCATIONS THAT SEE DAYTIME
RNFL... TEMPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CNTRL/ERN STATES SHOULD
BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
...TROPICS...
CONSULT TPC DISCUSSIONS AND ADVISORIES FOR LATEST INFO REGARDING
T.D. SIX IN THE ATLANTIC. BASED ON 15Z ADVISORY... THIS SYSTEM IS
FCST TO REACH HURCN STRENGTH BY DAYS 4-5 FRI-SAT. WITH GUIDANCE
DEPICTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG/E OF THE EAST COAST BY DAYS 6-7...
COORDINATED TPC/HPC TRACK DEPICTS AN INCREASED NWD COMPONENT AT
THAT TIME... KEEPING THE SYSTEM EAST OF 70W.
RAUSCH/CISCO
Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
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No it would destroy that LLC as 06L has a stronger LLC. In also the upper levels can hardly support a cat1 right now...In we are growing closer to the 30 year peak of this season. So it has not much more faverable it can become. It would be luck for this system to find a faverable area to go...This year.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
the trough is not lifting out quickly, if at all. Not sure where the trough is lifting out idea is coming from when it is not
it may be 2-3 days before we see really favorable conditions to allow for this to take off. If this survives the next 48-72 hours, we may very well see our first cane of the season (I am not sure Ernesto was a cane as flight level winds never supported cane status... BT may revise downward)
it may be 2-3 days before we see really favorable conditions to allow for this to take off. If this survives the next 48-72 hours, we may very well see our first cane of the season (I am not sure Ernesto was a cane as flight level winds never supported cane status... BT may revise downward)
Last edited by Derek Ortt on Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- jusforsean
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- terstorm1012
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we really NEED TO STOP EXTRAPOLATING FORECAST TRACKS
GFDL does not show any type of threat to Florida. It has the system 1,000miles east of the state, moving at a heading of 290-300 at T+126. Even extrapolating the track sends the storm well north of Florida.
I am not saying this cannot hit Florida, but chances currently do not favor that scenario; thus, I am not the least bit concerned here in South Miami at this time
GFDL does not show any type of threat to Florida. It has the system 1,000miles east of the state, moving at a heading of 290-300 at T+126. Even extrapolating the track sends the storm well north of Florida.
I am not saying this cannot hit Florida, but chances currently do not favor that scenario; thus, I am not the least bit concerned here in South Miami at this time
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Derek Ortt wrote:we really NEED TO STOP EXTRAPOLATING FORECAST TRACKS
GFDL does not show any type of threat to Florida. It has the system 1,000miles east of the state, moving at a heading of 290-300 at T+126. Even extrapolating the track sends the storm well north of Florida.
I am not saying this cannot hit Florida, but chances currently do not favor that scenario; thus, I am not the least bit concerned here in South Miami at this time
Derek, I like the sound of that...

I was curious if it was heading west still in that shot of GFDL in the other thread...
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- Grease Monkey
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Derek Ortt wrote:we really NEED TO STOP EXTRAPOLATING FORECAST TRACKS
GFDL does not show any type of threat to Florida. It has the system 1,000miles east of the state, moving at a heading of 290-300 at T+126. Even extrapolating the track sends the storm well north of Florida.
I am not saying this cannot hit Florida, but chances currently do not favor that scenario; thus, I am not the least bit concerned here in South Miami at this time
I'm also getting tired of people telling me to be concerned with a storm way ahead of time. I'll be concerned with a storm when I feel like it. It's a free country.

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- marcane_1973
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The trough to the North is really giving problems for TD 6 and the wave behind it. Both systems looked a lot better less than 24 hrs ago. Here it is September 5th starting peak time and every wave that comes off the coast of Africa seems to have shear or dry air to inhibit strengthening. 2006 sure seems to be one of the strangest and unpredictable seasons in a while.
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Josephine96 wrote:Calm down everybody please. If we all think the storm is going a certain way.. Let us think that way..
BESIDES.. IT'S WAY TOO EARLY.. Maybe it'll come to Fla, maybe it'll go into the GOM.. Maybe it'll hit SC/NC.. maybe it won't go anywhere..
I agree with you 125%. it is way,way,way,way too early to pin-point a landfall point, basically what I am recommending to everyone is to watch, and wait and just have it in the back of your mind what you would do, do you have your supplies in order, what you need to do if you did not make the early preps ahead of time, is to go out and buy your pre-season supplies if it makes you feel better. but please do not get to concerned at this time.
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