I made one for Ernesto and I'm doing the same here. It just makes the other thread less cluttered and makes it easier for people to get the info they need from the analysis thread.
Also here is the Storm2k Chat link.
http://www.stormdancing.net/network/jav ... torm2k.htm
Tropical Depression 06L General Chat thread.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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SouthFloridawx
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hurricanefloyd5
- Category 5
- Posts: 1659
- Age: 44
- Joined: Sun May 02, 2004 10:53 am
- Location: Spartanburg
- Contact:
Tropical Depression Six :
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 04, 2006
...Depression a little disorganized...
at 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Six was
estimated near latitude 16.9 north...longitude 43.8 west or about
1165 miles...1875 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...16.9 N...43.8 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Franklin
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 04, 2006
...Depression a little disorganized...
at 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Six was
estimated near latitude 16.9 north...longitude 43.8 west or about
1165 miles...1875 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...16.9 N...43.8 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Franklin
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hurricanefloyd5
- Category 5
- Posts: 1659
- Age: 44
- Joined: Sun May 02, 2004 10:53 am
- Location: Spartanburg
- Contact:
Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 5
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 04, 2006
satellite pictures show that the depression has not strengthened.
In fact... it looks less organized than 6 hours ago and has a
somewhat disheveled appearance. The center... as best we can
tell... is between two banding features that are looking
increasingly linear. Satellite estimates are unchanged from
earlier at tropical storm intensity... but there is no good reason
to upgrade the system as disorganized as it looks now. The initial
intensity is left at 30 kt.
Southwesterly shear seems to be inhibiting strengthening at
this time. Global models generally forecast the shear to
diminish... especially after 48 hours... after which more
significant intensification could begin. The intensity forecast is
lowered in the near-term to reflect the disorganized initial
state... but is kept almost the same in the later term out of
respect for the global models... which almost unanimously have the
system in a low-shear environment from days 3-5.
The initial motion appears to be about the same as before... 305/10.
Computer models are in fair agreement on the track of the
depression with a strong ridge forecast to build in a couple
days...after a large trough departs the central Atlantic Ocean.
However...the big difference among the models is the system's
speed. NOGAPS shoots the depression west-northwestward at an
unbelievably fast rate. The GFDL continues to be on the faster side
of the guidance envelope and the UKMET... after being one of the
slowest models... has made a large westward shift and is now
similar to the GFS position. With such a strong ridge forecast...
we've continued the idea of being a little faster than a model
consensus that excludes the NOGAPS.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 04/2100z 16.9n 43.8w 30 kt
12hr VT 05/0600z 17.6n 45.0w 30 kt
24hr VT 05/1800z 18.3n 46.5w 35 kt
36hr VT 06/0600z 19.0n 48.1w 40 kt
48hr VT 06/1800z 19.5n 50.0w 45 kt
72hr VT 07/1800z 20.5n 54.0w 55 kt
96hr VT 08/1800z 21.5n 58.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 09/1800z 23.0n 62.0w 75 kt
$$
forecaster Blake/Franklin
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 04, 2006
satellite pictures show that the depression has not strengthened.
In fact... it looks less organized than 6 hours ago and has a
somewhat disheveled appearance. The center... as best we can
tell... is between two banding features that are looking
increasingly linear. Satellite estimates are unchanged from
earlier at tropical storm intensity... but there is no good reason
to upgrade the system as disorganized as it looks now. The initial
intensity is left at 30 kt.
Southwesterly shear seems to be inhibiting strengthening at
this time. Global models generally forecast the shear to
diminish... especially after 48 hours... after which more
significant intensification could begin. The intensity forecast is
lowered in the near-term to reflect the disorganized initial
state... but is kept almost the same in the later term out of
respect for the global models... which almost unanimously have the
system in a low-shear environment from days 3-5.
The initial motion appears to be about the same as before... 305/10.
Computer models are in fair agreement on the track of the
depression with a strong ridge forecast to build in a couple
days...after a large trough departs the central Atlantic Ocean.
However...the big difference among the models is the system's
speed. NOGAPS shoots the depression west-northwestward at an
unbelievably fast rate. The GFDL continues to be on the faster side
of the guidance envelope and the UKMET... after being one of the
slowest models... has made a large westward shift and is now
similar to the GFS position. With such a strong ridge forecast...
we've continued the idea of being a little faster than a model
consensus that excludes the NOGAPS.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 04/2100z 16.9n 43.8w 30 kt
12hr VT 05/0600z 17.6n 45.0w 30 kt
24hr VT 05/1800z 18.3n 46.5w 35 kt
36hr VT 06/0600z 19.0n 48.1w 40 kt
48hr VT 06/1800z 19.5n 50.0w 45 kt
72hr VT 07/1800z 20.5n 54.0w 55 kt
96hr VT 08/1800z 21.5n 58.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 09/1800z 23.0n 62.0w 75 kt
$$
forecaster Blake/Franklin
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beachbum_al
- Category 5
- Posts: 2163
- Age: 55
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- Contact:
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dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
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AZRainman
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 146
- Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:48 pm
- Location: Sonoran Desert
- Contact:
No TS this time...try again later
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL ORGANIZATION REMAINS POOR. THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A
LARGE CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED NEAR THE OUTER
PERIPHERY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL FIGHTING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UNUSUALLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL
SHEAR...WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS. GIVEN THIS AND THE
PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO FRACTURE FORMING AN UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN...IF VERIFIED...WOULD
RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS A TOUGH ROAD IN THE INTERIM...AND WILL
NEED TO SURVIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO REACH THIS IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENT. THIS COMPLEX EVOLUTION MEANS GREATER THAN USUAL
UNCERTAINTY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A DIFFICULT TASK. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE TRANSIENT
CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION. THE ADVISORY POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MEAN CENTER OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION YIELDING AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 300/11. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS IT REACHES THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 17.7N 45.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 18.4N 47.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 19.2N 49.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 19.9N 50.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 20.5N 53.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 22.0N 58.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 23.5N 62.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 25.5N 66.0W 80 KT
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL ORGANIZATION REMAINS POOR. THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A
LARGE CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED NEAR THE OUTER
PERIPHERY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL FIGHTING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UNUSUALLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL
SHEAR...WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS. GIVEN THIS AND THE
PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO FRACTURE FORMING AN UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN...IF VERIFIED...WOULD
RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS A TOUGH ROAD IN THE INTERIM...AND WILL
NEED TO SURVIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO REACH THIS IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENT. THIS COMPLEX EVOLUTION MEANS GREATER THAN USUAL
UNCERTAINTY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A DIFFICULT TASK. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE TRANSIENT
CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION. THE ADVISORY POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MEAN CENTER OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION YIELDING AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 300/11. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS IT REACHES THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 17.7N 45.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 18.4N 47.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 19.2N 49.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 19.9N 50.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 20.5N 53.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 22.0N 58.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 23.5N 62.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 25.5N 66.0W 80 KT
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
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