T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

[carve]

Is it just me or are the 2 combining..Td 6 and the other wave..looks to be merging, with a possible circulation further southwest...any comments

We've been discussing this above, although we never said so specifically. The other wave is definately part of what I'm seeing here.

Yes,and to me it looks to be forming a circulatio further to the sw.

[cycloneye]

[carve]

Thats a scarey looking track...even though it's a long ways out!

[Sanibel]

That elongation is the system butting against the slot of ridge above it. If I remember correctly, elongated features do not reform south due to poleward corriolis. However a west motion could occur if it hangs under a ridge beyond the trough.

[ronjon]

Wow, the 12Z GFDL brings the system to 138 kts (115 kts with surface reduction) & 938 mb in 126 hrs near 24.5N-66W. Looks like our first major hurricane of the season. Checking the 500 mb pattern, the 12Z GFS produces a weakness in the upper air ridge around 150 hrs out and leaves it weak until about 190 hours out. Thereafter, it has an upper air high building southward from the New England which would block any northward movement. Gonna be an interesting set-up with the classic battle of ridge strength versus trough influence - timing is everything and we know how the upper air patterns can change dramatically this far out (aka Ernesto).

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation