T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:13 pm

Continue the discussions about TD 6 here.

Thread #1

Thread #2

#2 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:16 pm

I see what appears to be the LLC near 46w 17n moving off to the NW fairly quick and is exposed.

#3 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:16 pm

990
WHXX01 KWBC 041906
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (AL062006) ON 20060904 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060904 1800 060905 0600 060905 1800 060906 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.6N 43.3W 17.8N 44.9W 18.9N 46.3W 19.7N 47.7W
BAMM 16.6N 43.3W 17.8N 45.1W 18.7N 46.7W 19.1N 48.0W
A98E 16.6N 43.3W 17.7N 45.0W 18.9N 46.6W 19.9N 48.4W
LBAR 16.6N 43.3W 18.1N 44.7W 19.6N 46.1W 21.2N 47.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060906 1800 060907 1800 060908 1800 060909 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.5N 49.4W 21.8N 53.2W 23.0N 57.4W 24.4N 61.5W
BAMM 19.3N 49.6W 20.0N 52.7W 21.1N 55.6W 22.7N 58.7W
A98E 20.4N 50.8W 22.4N 55.9W 23.3N 61.7W 22.4N 66.5W
LBAR 22.7N 49.4W 25.6N 53.9W 27.6N 58.5W 30.1N 61.8W
SHIP 53KTS 64KTS 73KTS 84KTS
DSHP 53KTS 64KTS 73KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 43.3W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 41.5W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 39.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

#4 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:16 pm

It may die or it could be a Big hurricane. I don't know at this time and I don't know where it is going. But I don't like the sound of it right now. Like with any strom things change. Just look at what TS E did. Every one be on your toes in a week.

You all go ahead and say what you want I am packing up my things in a truck by next Monday and and take it some where high and dry. If it comes this way or not. I will not lose my things again. All pic are cd now. Lost all baby pic of my kids when they were young. All grown now with kid of their own. Anyway I am not taking any chances.

Trugunzn · #5 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:16 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Interesting that GFDL doesnt develope this storm for the next 48 hours and then really intesify when near lesser antilles.

Grease Monkey · #6 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:20 pm

I'm confused with those plots. I thougth they said that the tracks were shifting west again.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:20 pm

storms in NC wrote:It may die or it could be a Big hurricane. I don't know at this time and I don't know where it is going. But I don't like the sound of it right now. Like with any strom things change. Just look at what TS E did. Every one be on your toes in a week.

You all go ahead and say what you want I am packing up my things in a truck by next Monday and and take it some where high and dry. If it comes this way or not. I will not lose my things again. All pic are cd now. Lost all baby pic of my kids when they were young. All grown now with kid of their own. Anyway I am not taking any chances.

That is a good thing,you are going out even if this system dosen't go to your area.Better be safe than sorry later.

SouthFLTropics · #8 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:22 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have to agree with Derek on this one...The only way this thing is going to get going is to get away from the trough that is currently affecting it. The trough does not appear to be moving east or lifting out so therefore the motion to the NW will continue and the shear will continue. If, and that's a big if, this thing gets clear of the trough and the strong ridge actually builds in then I think TD6 could/will get its act together and be a fairly decent hurricane. Under the ridge it would head between 280 and 300 and COULD have a shot at the CONUS. But like another poster said, it will all be about timing. I for one cannot see a strong ridge staying in place long enough to allow it to reach the CONUS. A trough most likely will erode it and kick this baby back out to sea. JMHO of course...would love the opinion of some of the pro mets on the board. Comments welcome.

Grease Monkey · #9 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:23 pm

well that update makes sense to me.

Emmett_Brown · #10 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:26 pm

I agree that we are seeing X98L and TD6 merge. That being said, it is entriely possible that this system will stay at TD status for the next 24-48 hours until it consolidates and conditions begin to improve.

Currently, it appears like a very elongated LLC SW to NE. Depending on where the center permanently takes hold could have a big impact on the islands, especially if the SW LLC takes over.

#11 Postby **fci** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:28 pm

storms in NC wrote:It may die or it could be a Big hurricane. I don't know at this time and I don't know where it is going. But I don't like the sound of it right now. Like with any strom things change. Just look at what TS E did. Every one be on your toes in a week.

You all go ahead and say what you want I am packing up my things in a truck by next Monday and and take it some where high and dry. If it comes this way or not. I will not lose my things again. All pic are cd now. Lost all baby pic of my kids when they were young. All grown now with kid of their own. Anyway I am not taking any chances.

Yeah, you posed the question earlier about the chances of this one affecting you in NC and I don't know if you got opinions about it or not (I've been at work so I did not look for a few hours).

Anyway, I am not real comfortable with the track here in So. Fla and I would not feel real good up there either. It could get as far as the Central Bahamas and take the "Floyd" turn towards NC/SC.

Of course it could turn earlier and be a fish but I would recommend all between me (Fla) and you (NC) to watch carefully as the course and strength unfold over the next several days.

Patrick99 · #12 Postby **Patrick99** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:34 pm

TD6 looks sick. Seen better looking open waves. This won't get the chance to recurve, or go under any highs, IMO.

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:42 pm

10. Intentional posting of false information is not permitted at all. We know people do like to joke around but we have to many people visiting this forum other than the regulars to permit this activity. If you are going to joke about something or copy information from another location you must clearly say so in words. We take this as a very serious offense and the penalties will be very serious as well.

I deleited all the posts that talked about a false information that was posted at this thread to have the thread clean about any confusion that the information might haved created.

jaxfladude · #14 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:10. Intentional posting of false information is not permitted at all. We know people do like to joke around but we have to many people visiting this forum other than the regulars to permit this activity. If you are going to joke about something or copy information from another location you must clearly say so in words. We take this as a very serious offense and the penalties will be very serious as well.

I deleited all the posts that talked about a false information that was posted at this thread to have the thread clean about any confusion that the information might haved created.

Thanks................

Trugunzn · #15 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:49 pm

IMO the reason for most of its disorganization is the ex98 to its south looks still fighting TD6 to stay alive.

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:50 pm

That member got one week suspension for posting false information.

#17 Postby **curtadams** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:52 pm

TD6 is obviously interacting with the circulation center to the south. They'll probably merge eventually and then, given the conditions, strengthen. But I don't see strengthening before that. Debby, with centers much closer to this, took 12 hours to get them together so I figure a day or so before strengthening could start.

I don't think any model properly captures merging centers in cyclogenesis - it's too complex and small-scale. The GFDL has special modeling to handle the cyclone itself but not for any nearby cyclones and so I suspect it in particular can't handle it. So I would expect TD 6 to develop more slowly and more south than the current model runs.

Also - I'm a broken record here, but it's still true - the GFDL has been consistently overaggressive in developing systems. I don't expect this to be different.

Bgator · #18 Postby **Bgator** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:53 pm

Ok, i see the weakness in the high...But what causes this weakness, is there a trof coming down?

#19 Postby **HenkL** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:01 pm

The ECMWF 12Z shows a track that is very like the AEMN.
Hint: if you visit the ECMWF site, there is a picture in the upper left titled 'Extreme forecast'. Clicking on the picture gives some extra maps. From day tot day you will find different topics; sometimes they are interesting, sometimes boring.

#20 Postby **Toadstool** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:07 pm

HenkL wrote:The ECMWF 12Z shows a track that is very like the AEMN.
Hint: if you visit the ECMWF site, there is a picture in the upper left titled 'Extreme forecast'. Clicking on the picture gives some extra maps. From day tot day you will find different topics; sometimes they are interesting, sometimes boring.

Very nice. That site also seems to take the system to the north before reaching land... hope that's the trend.

T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

Who is online