T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

Josephine96 · #141 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:11 pm

FOX NEWS ALERT: TD 6 DIES.. :lol:

HurricaneHunter914 · #142 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:14 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Doesn't look like a TD on her death bed.

#143 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:14 pm

Everything I'm looking at(quickscat,buoy data,sat imagery) leads me to beleive the center may likely be reforming to the sw . This will be interesting to see how this develops in the coming hours. Until we have a well-defined center I will hold off on possible implications.

#144 Postby **Jevo** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:14 pm

gbear wrote:

ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!! good friggin game

jaxfladude · #145 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:19 pm

Josephine96 wrote:FOX NEWS ALERT: TD 6 DIES..

...........And everywhere the wish-casters mourn...........*

*not directed at anyone on this forum

Josephine96 · #146 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:23 pm

LOL.. I'd be mourning too..

#147 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:43 pm

Looks to me we have a broad circulation and imbedded with several vortices.

#148 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:46 pm

Website · #149 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:46 pm

Stewart wrote a very long, interesting, and detailed 11pm discussion. It's a must-read!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCDAT1

Swimdude · #150 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:49 pm

True that, Brent.

The intensity forecast is almost exactly what Ernesto's was when he was a TD... I'll be interested to see how this plays out...

Bgator · #151 Postby **Bgator** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:53 pm

Even though this is supposed to curve at least a bit right now, if you read the discussion it may not happen, often these weaknesses actually do not happen...

HurricaneHunter914 · #152 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:54 pm

Wow, the intensity calls for 90 mph in 5 days, stronger than before.

#153 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:54 pm

I smell fish here....lets just see if that happens

Bgator · #154 Postby **Bgator** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:55 pm

I see almost nothing that says fish, even stewart says the weakness may not occur as these trofs dont usually cause them... What makes you think fish?

Extremeweatherguy · #155 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:56 pm

Bgator wrote:Even though this is supposed to curve at least a bit right now, if you read the discussion it may not happen, often these weaknesses actually do not happen...

which would be bad news for FL..

#156 Postby **Bailey1777** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:58 pm

I guess I read it different I thought he was leaving the door open for the possibility that it does not curve.

#157 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:59 pm

its so early to speculate but given the lattitude where it is at now, there would have to be a 2004-like ridge to push it into florida and I have yet to see any sign of that strong of ridge this summer. So I would put my money on a recurve away from Florida if I had to put money on it right now.

HurricaneHunter914 · #158 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:59 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Bgator wrote:Even though this is supposed to curve at least a bit right now, if you read the discussion it may not happen, often these weaknesses actually do not happen...
which would be bad news for FL..

Wouldn't that be nice. :roll:

#159 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:12 pm

now that I read the latest discussion, which was excellent by the way, I think it is actually indicating there is a possbility there will be no weakness and it will just continue WNW - if you extrapolate it out, Florida would be in its path....let's just hope that doesn't happen.

cpdaman · #160 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:16 pm

i think the discussion means that the connection between the smaller low latitude trough and the stronger mid latitude trough don't usually phase according to climo

i take this as bad news for the carolina's because

1. the smaller low latitude trough is STILL forecast to be there (this is florida's friend) and will steer this thing north albeit temporarily if it doesn't phase with mid lat trough some where between 65-75 west which should bring it north of florida IMO

2. the lack of confidence in hooking up with the mid lat trough suggest the system ( if there is one in 5 days) may find a weakness and slide between the troughs

T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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