Area in S. FL/Bahamas

cpdaman · #41 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:43 pm

southfloridawx

i see what u are seeing

here is a tip look at the miami long range radar and SPEED up the animation

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

it becomes obvious IMAO

bout 100 miles southeast of miami anyone else have opinion

#42 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:46 pm

something is suspiciously brewing SE of Miami for sure - now lets see what the NHC finds...

#43 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:52 pm

There is a Mid-level spin showing up on Miami radar, but keep in mind that is a spin probably up around 17,000 ft or so, does not mean we have anything in the way of a low at the surface.......yet.

This convection needs to continue for this possibility.

rainydaze · #44 Postby **rainydaze** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:54 pm

From the Miami NWS 8:30pm Forecast Discussion:

LATEST
88-D LOOPS THOUGH INDICATE LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE TIP
OF S FLA AND THE CUBAN COAST. TRAJECTORY SEEMS TO TAKE THESE AREAS
OF CIRCULATION WNW INTO THE EXTREME SE GULF OF MEX. A SE/S WIND FLOW
ALOFT MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE UPON THE
E COAST AND ALONG THE FLA BAY COAST OF MAINLAND MONROE AND W MIAMI
-DADE COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE FOR A WHILE BUT MORNING ACTIVITY BEFORE SUNRISE COULD ALSO
IMPINGE UPON THE GULF COAST AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.

WILL UPDATE ZONES SOME...ESPECIALLY W COAST WHERE EARLY MORNING
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE ASHORE.

IF THE ABOVE SCENARIO WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS REACHES
FRUITION...AND THE FLA PENINSULA REMAINS ON E SIDE OF THE CIRCULA
-TIONS...S FLA...WHICH ALREADY HAS 70-80% POPS FOR TUE MAY SEE THAT
UPPED AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

Grrrr....more rain and possibly a homegrown.... You know when your nic is Rainydaze and you are getting sick of the rain....it's been raining ALOT!! lol

#45 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:01 pm

Actually you can see two distinct spins, one south of the Keys in the Straits and one well to the east of that closer to the Bahamas.

WindRunner · #46 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:05 pm

10:30 TWO

ABNT20 KNHC 050257
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX...LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND
EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH...AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM... IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...SINCE
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING LITTLE...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

#47 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:06 pm

cpdaman wrote:southfloridawx

i see what u are seeing

here is a tip look at the miami long range radar and SPEED up the animation

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

it becomes obvious IMAO

bout 100 miles southeast of miami anyone else have opinion

Yep it's still there but, it's mid level circulation probably associated with the convection.

cpdaman · #48 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:07 pm

to me it appeared moving nne or so

dean what is your take on the "trajectory seems to take ...wnw"

fyi i trust there eyes better than mine but they didn't seem convinced

unless they are talking about a little spin south of marathon?

#49 Postby **tgenius** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:10 pm

It has to be moving NE.. there was massive amounts of convection directly under South FL, and its almost moving around the land...

boca · #50 Postby **boca** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:54 pm

The Radar seems to show a NW movement and its now pouring here in West Boca and I also noticed on radar more rain popping up in the Bahamas heading this way.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

#51 Postby **Starburst** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 11:05 pm

Can you please send the rain our way? No storm please just the rain :wink:

Thanks Boca :darrow:

boca · #52 Postby **boca** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 11:09 pm

Starburst I'll send it overnight so when Fedex comes around 1030am sign for it open it and it should start raining.

Ptarmigan · #53 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 11:15 pm

That area of clouds has persisted for days. It should be monitored for possible development. The Gulf is very warm. We are entering a more active season.

SouthFLTropics · #54 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 11:29 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:That area of clouds has persisted for days. It should be monitored for possible development. The Gulf is very warm. We are entering a more active season.

Yeah, I keep hearing that we are entering the more active part of the season and I keep seeing things fizzle out. It's almost like the season is teasing us. Don't get me wrong, after the past two years I'm not complaining about the lull. I'm just afraid that the season may be running about 2 to 3 months behind schedule. I wouldn't be suprised to see some storms well into November this year. JMO.

boca · #55 Postby **boca** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 11:34 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:That area of clouds has persisted for days. It should be monitored for possible development. The Gulf is very warm. We are entering a more active season.

Yeah, I keep hearing that we are entering the more active part of the season and I keep seeing things fizzle out. It's almost like the season is teasing us. Don't get me wrong, after the past two years I'm not complaining about the lull. I'm just afraid that the season may be running about 2 to 3 months behind schedule. I wouldn't be suprised to see some storms well into November this year. JMO.

Maybe so but more of a chance of these systems curving out to sea due to troughs getting stronger due to the fall season and we also have to worry about the Western Caribbean come Oct and Nov. If we see an EL Nino event I think that shuts down the Caribbean basin due to shear.

#56 Postby **hiflyer** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 8:31 am

Looking at radar out of KMIA this morning...

"for what we are about to receive....."

at least on the coast!!!!

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

jpigott · #57 Postby **jpigott** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:22 am

The SE Florida metro areas look to be in for a very soggy day

jpigott · #58 Postby **jpigott** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:17 am

The area of disturbed weather over FL and the Bahamas was mentioned again in the 11:30 TWO

A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS AND ADJACENT WATERS
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

NFLDART · #59 Postby **NFLDART** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:07 am

Rain Rain Rain... At least a better fire season...

Johnny · #60 Postby **Johnny** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 2:06 pm

Rule of thumb for Johnny. If I don't see a pro met posting in a 'possible development' thread within 3 pages then chances are nothing will come out of it. Page 3 is just about filled up. It's time to move on.

Area in S. FL/Bahamas

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