Invest 91L Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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HurricaneMaster_PR
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#21 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:45 pm

Looks pretty healthy tonight..This soon will be Invest 91L...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
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#22 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:53 pm

Latest TAFB 48 hour Forecast=Shows a fairly strong system.
Image
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#23 Postby Hyperstorm » Sun Sep 03, 2006 8:20 pm

The system is not doing much tonight. Any low-mid level rotation is WELL northeast of the convective activity...likely over the Cape Verde islands. Low-level cloud lines are from the west all across those thunderstorms.

Don't expect development in the near-term with this setup. Have to see convection persist for at least 24 hours (for low pressure development in it) to even be considered for an invest classification...
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#24 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 03, 2006 8:39 pm

Hyperstorm wrote:The system is not doing much tonight. Any low-mid level rotation is WELL northeast of the convective activity...likely over the Cape Verde islands. Low-level cloud lines are from the west all across those thunderstorms.

Don't expect development in the near-term with this setup. Have to see convection persist for at least 24 hours (for low pressure development in it) to even be considered for an invest classification...




good catch....just saw the same on latest Met-8.
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#25 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 8:43 pm

Here are my thoughts on this system...

Image

Even though the main mid-level rotation area is displaced from the main convection and is closer to the Cape Verde Islands, as the system moves further west, the possible low area may reform closer to the convection, or the convection may consolidate closer to the area of the main mid-level rotation as the wave axis slows and shear gradually lessens as the gap between TD 6 and this wave widens, lending support into this system possibly forming into 91L soon, especially beyond 24 hours. Convection, although displaced, has persisted well since the axis of this wave exited the African coastline. With all the synoptics in, this mat well develop soon a bit down the road.
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#26 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:00 pm

Image
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#27 Postby TheEuropean » Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:43 am

AXNT20 KNHC 040611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 16N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W. A FEW CELLS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Convection is persisting now for many hours and IMO it may be classified as an invest later today.
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#28 Postby Meso » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:21 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040906
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON SEP 4 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO


I think that's for this wave...
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#29 Postby HenkL » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:49 am

The NAMMA project forecast from today:

"NAMMA forecast Sept 4

The wave sampled by the DC-8 yesterday (Sept 03) has continued to propagate westward while maintaining a cyclonic circulation signature below 500mb. A decision has been made to fly the system again today. A QuickScat overpass at 2018UTC Sept 3 places the surface circulation center near 15N 26W. The position is consistent with NHC Tropical Discussion issued 0600 UTC Sept 4 placing a 1008mb low near 26W/27W and 16N. The circulation center is located 100-200km to the northeast of convective burst within the ITCZ. It continues to move west at 10-15 knots. The 00UTC Sept 4 numerical guidance suite (NCEP GFS, MAP06 GEOS-5, Howard Univ and UIUC WRF systems) is in strong agreement on both the track of the system and low-level structure over the next 48h. Ensemble positions are as follows: 12UTC/4: 16N-27; 00UTC/5: 16N-29W; 12UTC/5: 16N-32W; 00UTC/6: 16N-35W."
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#30 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:35 am

The future #7 I'm guessing perhaps..?
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#31 Postby skysummit » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:40 am

What I don't like about this is it's southern location. Now, if TD6 forms into Florence....the next wave that could be 91L would be "G", and this beast coming off of Africa could be my dreaded "Helene". There's just something about that name....I said it since before the season started. I dread Helene.
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#32 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:13 am

496
ABNT20 KNHC 041500
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 4 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX...LOCATED ABOUT 1235 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...
IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION WITHIN A LARGE CIRCULATION AND THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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#33 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:37 am

System is clearly organizing right now. Convection is forming all throughout the low-mid level circulation that was devoid of shower activity yesterday. Yesterday's persistent blob has weakened leading the way for more inflow to follow the broad center.

The "popcorn" type of development of the weather over the center leads me to believe this is almost a go.

Expect an invest soon...
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#34 Postby Zardoz » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:39 am

HenkL wrote:...maintaining a cyclonic circulation...

The circulation is just coming into view in this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
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#35 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:23 pm

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

530 TWO
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#36 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:02 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2006

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 21N OR ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOST ORGANIZED IN A BROKEN
CURVED BAND FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SFC LOW...FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 30W-34W.
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#37 Postby WindRunner » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:32 pm

Since no one has posted a sat pic in a while, here we go. I know I sometimes get lazy and will check a thread for a current sat pic of a system instead of going to another site for them, so I try to return the unknowing favor when I can. 8-)

Image

Hard to believe there's a TD in the middle of that picture, eh?
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#38 Postby Meso » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:00 am

The NOGAPS is quite vicious on this system!
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

The UKMET forms the system,but not very deep.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

MM5 also closes off the low and brings it behind what it seems to think will be a powerfull florance
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

GFS also puts it as a closed low (as well as another system developing near the end of the run)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

CMC has it on and off
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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#39 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 5:02 am

The MM5 model scares me! :eek:
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#40 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:37 am

This is now 91L Invest on NRL. Let's make this thread for 91L, instead of a new one.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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