T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[sunny]

We could be looking at Florence heading toward South Florida.Maybe a GOM cane,if the center is SW

Of course we could. But I don't think it's likely or unlikely. Simply a possibility.

Local mets are thinking this will be an East coast event.

[Blown Away]

We could be looking at Florence heading toward South Florida.Maybe a GOM cane,if the center is SW

Of course we could. But I don't think it's likely or unlikely. Simply a possibility.

Local mets are thinking this will be an East coast event.

What scenario are they saying will happen. Our local mets are saying this will likely be a fish, but always say wait until the storm is N of our latitude before we can let our guard down.

[Josephine96]

My local met says the models may be picking up on a northward turn at the end of the 5 day..

[storms in NC]

We could be looking at Florence heading toward South Florida.Maybe a GOM cane,if the center is SW

Of course we could. But I don't think it's likely or unlikely. Simply a possibility.

Local mets are thinking this will be an East coast event.

I think as well it will be a East coast storm if it make it. JOM

[Josephine96]

Florida-Carolinas.. or somewhere in between..

[windycity]

Ok folks, this storm is starting to concern me abit, although conditions arent highly favorable right now. The sat pics show such a LARGE area of circulation, which is impressive inspite of disorganization. That is what worries me. What are you pro mets thinking about this?

[sunny]

We could be looking at Florence heading toward South Florida.Maybe a GOM cane,if the center is SW

Of course we could. But I don't think it's likely or unlikely. Simply a possibility.

Local mets are thinking this will be an East coast event.

What scenario are they saying will happen. Our local mets are saying this will likely be a fish, but always say wait until the storm is N of our latitude before we can let our guard down.

That is the trough doesn't catch it, most likely the Carolina's. Of course they did the standard "it's a long way out there and things can happen". But they just do not sound concerned about this getting in the Gulf.

[cinlfla]

If the center is more SW then the models are wrong. If I remember the GFDL runs from a few days ago this storm should have been stronger as well, we are also talking about a weaker system. This should be interesting to see if and how the models change.

[Josephine96]

My opinion.. Only way it gets into the Gulf, is if it crosses Florida 1st...

[skysummit]

I didn't see if this was posted yet, but the 12z models says Tropical Storm:

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM SIX (AL062006) ON 20060905 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060905 1200 060906 0000 060906 1200 060907 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 46.8W 18.6N 47.9W 19.9N 49.1W 21.2N 50.5W
BAMM 17.2N 46.8W 18.2N 48.3W 18.9N 49.6W 19.7N 50.8W
A98E 17.2N 46.8W 17.9N 48.9W 18.8N 50.8W 20.0N 52.8W
LBAR 17.2N 46.8W 18.4N 48.4W 19.8N 50.1W 21.1N 51.8W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 48KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060907 1200 060908 1200 060909 1200 060910 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 52.2W 23.8N 56.8W 25.7N 61.8W 28.3N 66.3W
BAMM 20.2N 52.3W 21.7N 55.7W 23.9N 59.8W 26.8N 64.4W
A98E 20.9N 54.9W 22.7N 60.1W 23.9N 65.2W 24.5N 68.8W
LBAR 22.2N 53.8W 24.1N 58.5W 25.9N 63.3W 27.8N 67.0W
SHIP 60KTS 74KTS 83KTS 89KTS
DSHP 60KTS 74KTS 83KTS 89KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.2N LONCUR = 46.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 44.7W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 42.3W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$

[Thunder44]

Thunder,you know the drill here at storm2k.We always wait for the official information from NHC and not go ahead and rapidily post a information or change a title of a thread that later may not be the correct one.It's better to play it safe.

Yeah, that what I said I don't know. Especially since they didn't give it a name yet. I believe they did this with Beryl on a 5pm advisory and didn't upgrade until a plane found TS force winds.

[Josephine96]

Maybe they think it's Florence? I don't know.. or maybe they don't name storms anymore.. lol

[wxman57]

Thunder,you know the drill here at storm2k.We always wait for the official information from NHC and not go ahead and rapidily post a information or change a title of a thread that later may not be the correct one.It's better to play it safe.

Yeah, that what I said I don't know. Especially since they didn't give it a name yet. I believe they did this with Beryl on a 5pm advisory and didn't upgrade until a plane found TS force winds.

The model data with "Tropical Storm" atop it and 35 kts surface wind makes it almost a certainty we'll see the NHC upgrade it at 10am CDT>

[Thunder44]

We could be looking at Florence heading toward South Florida.Maybe a GOM cane,if the center is SW

Of course we could. But I don't think it's likely or unlikely. Simply a possibility.

It looks very unlikely at this time. Most models this morning are showing a turn to NW or North somewhere between 65W and 70W, after 5 days. The ridge in the North Atlantic doesn't look to be set up far enough west to allow the storm get much further westward. The threat seems higher for the Mid-Atlantic and more so for New England. Although all of them recurve it out, before it hits the US, as a shortwave trough comes in from the Pacific NW and takes it out to sea.

[Josephine96]

Ok.. so it appears we have Florence as of 11am? Cool..

[Stormavoider]

We could be looking at Florence heading toward South Florida.Maybe a GOM cane,if the center is SW

Of course we could. But I don't think it's likely or unlikely. Simply a possibility.

It looks very unlikely. Most models this morning are showing a turn to NW or North somewhere between 65W and 70W, after 5 days. The ridge in the North Atlantic doesn't look to be set up far enough west to allow the storm get much further westward. The threat seems higher for the Mid-Atlantic and more so for New England. Although all of them recurve it out, before it hits the US, as a shortwave trough comes in from the Pacific NW and takes it out to sea.

With the storm well SSW of the model initialization, the new runs could be a whole new ball game.

[skysummit]

Stormavoider, I agree. In my eyes, it looks like they'll have to reposition the center again.

[windycity]

Here we go. Now on to the wobble wars. Knowing that its taking longer to strenthen is concerning me about all of us on the east coast. If it makes it, i dont see this being a fish.

[Thunder44]

We could be looking at Florence heading toward South Florida.Maybe a GOM cane,if the center is SW

Of course we could. But I don't think it's likely or unlikely. Simply a possibility.

It looks very unlikely. Most models this morning are showing a turn to NW or North somewhere between 65W and 70W, after 5 days. The ridge in the North Atlantic doesn't look to be set up far enough west to allow the storm get much further westward. The threat seems higher for the Mid-Atlantic and more so for New England. Although all of them recurve it out, before it hits the US, as a shortwave trough comes in from the Pacific NW and takes it out to sea.

With the storm well SSW of the model initialization, the new runs could be a whole new ball game.

Even so I can't imagine it the models shifting far enough south and west for Florida hit right now. If anything it just increases the threat up north.

[Blown Away]

We could be looking at Florence heading toward South Florida.Maybe a GOM cane,if the center is SW

Of course we could. But I don't think it's likely or unlikely. Simply a possibility.

It looks very unlikely. Most models this morning are showing a turn to NW or North somewhere between 65W and 70W, after 5 days. The ridge in the North Atlantic doesn't look to be set up far enough west to allow the storm get much further westward. The threat seems higher for the Mid-Atlantic and more so for New England. Although all of them recurve it out, before it hits the US, as a shortwave trough comes in from the Pacific NW and takes it out to sea.

With the storm well SSW of the model initialization, the new runs could be a whole new ball game.

1200z models initialize at 17.2, about 30 miles S of the 5am position. I doubt this will change the model consensus to much, fish storm is likely.