T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[otowntiger]

I'm not sure what everyone is getting all excited about (re: it's going to hit south FL, or the Carolinas, New England, etc.) as it appears to me that the models and even the professional mets are suggesting that this thing will turn out to sea. I know things can certainly change, but from what I've been seeing the chances of a US strike at this point are minimal, and less so the further south you are.

[Nimbus]

The Caribbean islands look like they will be on the weak side of the storm, so that is a good thing. Unless something happens to the Bermuda high forecast from this morning a recurving track close to the Bahamas and up past the Carolinas looks most likely.

The slow forward speed and lack of an accurate initialization have hindered the models some thus far. They need to see how the ridge or Bermuda high is going to build to forecast the track. With an ULL splitting off and retreating west it is possible the ridge Florence will find herself embedded in may push farther west than currently forecast. My first impresion was that maybe the ULL might swing north and lift out with Florence following.

[skysummit]

I simply cannot understand all these "most likely" scenarios. Haven't we learned anything from Ernesto? NOTHING is "most likely" this early.

[Stormavoider]

Even so I can't imagine it the models shifting far enough south and west for Florida hit right now. If anything it just increases the threat up north.

I can't speculate on possible new model tracks. I just feel there may be significant change due to a center shift.

[terstorm1012]

I found them and this post can be deleted.

[WxGuy1]

I simply cannot understand all these "most likely" scenarios. Haven't we learned anything from Ernesto? NOTHING is "most likely" this early.

What? There will almost always be a most likely path. That DOES NOT mean that the storm will follow that path, but that's why we say "most likely" instead of "for certain" or guaranteed or whatnot. Just because we had Ernesto does not invalidate all future forecasts for all future cyclones.


I would say the most likely scenario is for the storm to turn out to sea and not affect the US. Of course, that's not as fun as talking about a very small chance that it will hit the US. People talking about a US landfall now is like me talking about a fish potential for a major storm in the Gulf... It's possible, but highly unlikely given the forecast data we have. The second most likely scenario in my opinion is a close approach or strike to the central or northern US coast. Even that will be difficult with the widespread nature of >30kt upper-level flow. I think the only hope for a major cane would be for a storm that stalls intself in the middle of the ridge over the Bahamas. This is, however, my "very unlikely scenario".

[SouthFloridawx]

Yep there seems to be consensus that this thing is going to turn out to sea.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

Let's see what happens in the coming days.

How is 06L looking this morning on satelite?

[skysummit]

WxGuy1, I agree with most of what you're saying...we still need to forecast. Up to 5 days I agree with, but talking what will happen 7 - 10 days out is just ridiculous IMO. Each and every model run changes some every time.

However, like you said, just because we had Ernesto does not invalidate all future forecasts for all future cyclones, BUT, anything beyond 3 days, I now take with a VERY small grain of salt.

***Well, geez....now you edited your original post before I could ever respond so nevermind.

[WxGuy1]

However, like you said, just because we had Ernesto does not invalidate all future forecasts for all future cyclones, BUT, anything beyond 3 days, I now take with a VERY small grain of salt.

That's certainly wise! It's always important to remain aware of the limitations of model forecasts, which amplify with time. In this case, it'd be discouraged to look at the individual track forecasts past a few days, but a look at the synoptic, upper-level forecast indicates that it would be difficult for a storm to get to the US east coast if the upper-level forecast verifies. The ECMWF and GFS indiciate a pretty similar upper-level environment by early next week, with a decent upper-level trough in the western Atlantic / eastern US seaboard. Not coincidentally, these models both show TD6 turning northward well east of the US.

I think the only real possibility of a US land may occur if TD6 stays as far south as possible, skimming northern Cuba / southern Bahamas. This does throw a block in my "2nd most likely IMO is northern and central US coast". It appears as though if it's north enough to get an approach angle on the central or northern US coast, it'll get caught up in the southwesterly flow and turned northward. Of course, the details of this trough are uncertain at this time, as the ECMWF seems to show a more shallow upper-level trough (i.e. less of a mid-level reflection), which may allow a shallower system to continue towards the east coast. If that occurs, however, the 35+ kt 250mb westerly flow will create high upper-level shear.

Regardless, I'll still make my "most likely" pathcast of TD6 moving out to sea.

[gatorcane]

I simply cannot understand all these "most likely" scenarios. Haven't we learned anything from Ernesto? NOTHING is "most likely" this early.

What? There will almost always be a most likely path. That DOES NOT mean that the storm will follow that path, but that's why we say "most likely" instead of "for certain" or guaranteed or whatnot. Just because we had Ernesto does not invalidate all future forecasts for all future cyclones.


I would say the most likely scenario is for the storm to turn out to sea and not affect the US. Of course, that's not as fun as talking about a very small chance that it will hit the US. People talking about a US landfall now is like me talking about a fish potential for a major storm in the Gulf... It's possible, but highly unlikely given the forecast data we have. The second most likely scenario in my opinion is a close approach or strike to the central or northern US coast. Even that will be difficult with the widespread nature of >30kt upper-level flow. I think the only hope for a major cane would be for a storm that stalls intself in the middle of the ridge over the Bahamas. This is, however, my "very unlikely scenario".

I would have to agree with you here. Another thing to highlight is that Ernesto was a very unique situation where you had a developing system trailing a big TUTT low. In addition the interaction of land caused erratic movements and center reformations that the models could not understand.

If I had to put money on it I would say fish storm here, based on what i have read from pro mets here and some other things I have looked at.

[windycity]

I am SOOOOo happy after seeing the latest model plots, fish, sounds good.

[BensonTCwatcher]

One thing that is quite notable from a NC point of view is the climo history and the "key indicators" that form a NS/SC threat. GA storms being being most rare are exluded for the sake of argument.

Probably our single most threatening scenario is a hurricane ( or any well developed cyclone forecast to move over the gulf stream) which rides the periphery of the bermuda high such that it enters the carolinas at a more westward track. i.e. typically tropical systems are in the recurve phase when they strike the curved carolina coast or barrier islands. storms that get blocked by high pressure and ride in on a more westward track are more costly in lives and property overall. Key storm paths would be:

Hugo
Hazel
Fran

A key point is the 25N 70W point. If the track is N or E of this point, then no carolina landfall.

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html select storms by name

Would be Florence looks to be a fish based on that setup and the GFS at this point. A big fly in the ointment is the high pressure moving SE from Canada at the end of the GFS run. If it joins up with the Bermuda high, then we have trouble, if not I can't see this system impacting the east coast. anything south of Charleston looks really unlikely at this point, unless we start talking loops etc.

I know things WILL change before the weekend, and storm speed relative the forecast features will be key.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006090506&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[curtadams]

The LL circ is looking much nicer - fairly symmetrical now. But no convection anywhere near the center.

[Zardoz]

How is 06L looking this morning on satelite?

Healthy and strong:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[carve]

Is the spin or center to the sw of the convection?? And if so would that not keep the trough from picking it up....or am i way off??

[BensonTCwatcher]

Expect a new intialization on the models. Looks like the new center is the winner of the circulation battle royale that has been going on.

[greels]

WxGuy1..

You mentioned the possibility of this storm brushing Cuba and the Bahamas.....should I be concerned,living as I do, in the Turks and Caicos Islands?

Gretchen

[Windtalker1]

Also expect a more Westward push with each model run. I think that High in Canada is going to be stronger and move more South than anticipated.

[HURAKAN]

I the center near the blob or SW of the blob?

[Windtalker1]

I say SW of the Blob.