Invest 91L Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

This is now 91L Invest on NRL. Let's make this thread for 91L, instead of a new one.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Changed the title.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060905 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060905 0600 060905 1800 060906 0600 060906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.1N 31.9W 14.2N 34.0W 14.6N 36.1W 15.2N 38.1W
BAMM 14.1N 31.9W 14.5N 33.7W 15.4N 35.5W 16.5N 37.3W
A98E 14.1N 31.9W 14.3N 34.3W 14.6N 36.8W 14.9N 39.4W
LBAR 14.1N 31.9W 14.4N 34.4W 15.1N 37.3W 15.7N 40.2W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 25KTS 29KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 25KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060907 0600 060908 0600 060909 0600 060910 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.8N 40.0W 16.3N 43.2W 15.9N 45.8W 14.5N 48.1W
BAMM 17.6N 38.8W 19.1N 41.1W 19.5N 43.1W 19.2N 44.7W
A98E 15.1N 42.0W 16.6N 47.1W 17.8N 51.8W 19.7N 55.6W
LBAR 16.3N 42.9W 16.9N 47.8W 16.4N 51.0W 15.6N 51.9W
SHIP 34KTS 44KTS 48KTS 55KTS
DSHP 34KTS 44KTS 48KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 31.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 29.7W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 27.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

[Thunder44]

585
WHXX01 KWBC 051242
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060905 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060905 1200 060906 0000 060906 1200 060907 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.3N 33.1W 14.6N 35.5W 15.0N 37.7W 15.4N 40.0W
BAMM 14.3N 33.1W 14.7N 35.3W 15.5N 37.5W 16.5N 39.5W
A98E 14.3N 33.1W 14.5N 35.5W 14.9N 38.0W 15.5N 40.6W
LBAR 14.3N 33.1W 14.8N 35.7W 15.5N 38.4W 16.0N 41.1W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060907 1200 060908 1200 060909 1200 060910 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 42.1W 15.3N 45.9W 14.3N 48.9W 13.1N 51.4W
BAMM 17.2N 41.0W 17.5N 43.7W 17.3N 45.9W 16.9N 47.8W
A98E 15.7N 43.2W 17.1N 48.2W 17.7N 52.8W 17.4N 56.8W
LBAR 16.4N 44.0W 16.5N 49.0W 15.9N 52.2W 14.8N 54.0W
SHIP 43KTS 50KTS 52KTS 56KTS
DSHP 43KTS 50KTS 52KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 33.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 30.8W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 28.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12z models initialized 25kts.

[Josephine96]

25 kts is a TD right..?

[HenkL]

The latest forecast from the NAMMA project:

"NAMMA forecast Sept 05 2006

Today DC-8 will fly along 19N into African continent to examine the dust source, how its character changes as exiting the coast and its interaction with clouds if there is any. The vortex we sampled yesterday moved to 15N 30W. Model consensus shows no sign of intensification for the next 12 hours. The upper level dry and dusty air ahead of it might contribute to the weakening. Models (MAP06/G5, GFS, UKMAT, and CMC) predict the vortex will merge with TD6 within 72 to 96 hours. Mission scientists decided to not fly it again and will wait for the next wave coming off the coast on Sept 8th. Three dusty regions can be seen from satellite imageries from west to east: ahead of the TD6, between TD6 and the vortex, and east of CV islands. Mission today is focused on the dust just coming off the coast. Shallow cumulus clouds embedded in the dust layer just northwest of Dakar may be an interesting area to examine the dust and cloud interaction. Tomorrow is a hard down day."

[Thunder44]

25 kts is a TD right..?

Not necessarily and it doesn't appear TPC will upgrade this at 11am.

[SouthFloridawx]

I see we have a new invest.. Man see what happens when I don't check on everything before I leave for work.

[gatorcane]

okay folks now this invest has me concerned.....initially for the islands....

[caribepr]

okay folks now this invest has me concerned.....initially for the islands....

Good, now we don't have to be concerned, just prepared Thanks!

[cajungal]

We will just have to wait to see what happens. I have a feeling that this one might not make it. But, it is at an awfully low latitude and we are almost at the peak of hurricane season.

[Fego]

The latest forecast from the NAMMA project:

"NAMMA forecast Sept 05 2006
Today DC-8 will fly along 19N into African continent to examine the dust source, how its character changes as exiting the coast and its interaction with clouds if there is any. The vortex we sampled yesterday moved to 15N 30W. Model consensus shows no sign of intensification for the next 12 hours. The upper level dry and dusty air ahead of it might contribute to the weakening. Models (MAP06/G5, GFS, UKMAT, and CMC) predict the vortex will merge with TD6 within 72 to 96 hours. Mission scientists decided to not fly it again and will wait for the next wave coming off the coast on Sept 8th. Three dusty regions can be seen from satellite imageries from west to east: ahead of the TD6, between TD6 and the vortex, and east of CV islands. Mission today is focused on the dust just coming off the coast. Shallow cumulus clouds embedded in the dust layer just northwest of Dakar may be an interesting area to examine the dust and cloud interaction. Tomorrow is a hard down day."

Say what?... 91L will merge with TD#6?

[jpigott]

Man that would be one big storm, TD6 already looks to be merging with ex98L and now some are forecasting 91L to get sucked in also, I hope this thing is a fish b/c it looks like it could be really large

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 5 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 935 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS AND ADJACENT WATERS
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME A BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[CrazyC83]

Still I don't see anything coming out of this blob.

[Wx_Warrior]

Merger

[hurricanetrack]

Acquisition.

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W FROM 8N-21N MOVING W NEAR
10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL-DEFINED
WITH A 1010 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14.5N. A 36 HOUR
INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING
DURING THIS TIME BUT IN GENERAL HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER
THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZATION TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOST ORGANIZED IN A BROKEN
CURVED BAND ON THE N AND W SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...NAMELY FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 33W-37W. THIS BROAD AREA IS BEING MONITORED AS
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 051735
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.4 32.7 275./11.1
6 14.3 33.7 266./10.0
12 14.4 34.8 278./10.4
18 15.1 36.2 294./14.8
24 15.6 37.6 292./14.9
30 16.2 38.8 293./12.7
36 16.6 39.9 294./11.4
42 16.9 41.2 281./12.1
48 17.4 42.3 292./11.6
54 18.0 43.3 302./12.3
60 18.5 44.2 297./ 8.8
66 18.9 45.0 300./ 8.7
72 19.2 46.1 286./11.3
78 19.5 47.4 283./12.3
84 19.4 48.2 262./ 8.3
90 19.0 49.1 246./ 9.0
96 19.3 50.4 284./12.6
102 19.4 51.6 272./11.4
108 19.6 52.7 284./10.1
114 19.7 54.0 274./12.6
120 19.5 55.2 258./12.0
126 19.7 56.4 281./11.2

12z GFDL for 91L.