T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[fci]

The models are SCREAMING recurve.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

Boy, that is the understatement of the year! After Ermesto, however, I think I'll still keep one eye on this one.

I will also keep an eye on it until it is safely past where I live.

However, given that the models are saying recurvature, Pro Mets say it and climatology says it; the expectation that she will recurve has to be there.

It would take a real surprise, shock, anomaly and/or rarity to occur for her NOT to recurve.
I will definitely think in those terms and write this one off while still watching "just in case".

[SCMedic]

Any idea why there have been the Hugo references in the media, accuweather, and local news here in SC? I mean, locally, it's understandable, they're pretty on edge with any storm, but are the synoptics even remotely similar?

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not so sure this will be a fish

Seems like the models are indicating more of a SSW to NNE flow, which would make it somewhat difficult for this to clear Canada

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm not so sure this will be a fish

Seems like the models are indicating more of a SSW to NNE flow, which would make it somewhat difficult for this to clear Canada

LOL..Nothing like looking ahead Ortt..

[Damar91]

I'm not so sure this will be a fish

Seems like the models are indicating more of a SSW to NNE flow, which would make it somewhat difficult for this to clear Canada

Derek, do you meant the front, or Florence?

Thanks!

[gatorcane]

I'm not so sure this will be a fish

Seems like the models are indicating more of a SSW to NNE flow, which would make it somewhat difficult for this to clear Canada

interesting can you explain further?

[RevDodd]

The models are SCREAMING recurve.

...and back in 1999 they were screaming "Floyd is going to hammer Florida!" so loudly that millions of folks were evacuated.

Models are great tools for trends, but trying to solve a storm's track a week out with them is like spitting watermelon seeds into a bucket from a ferris wheel.

That's what makes it all so fascinating.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm not so sure this will be a fish

Seems like the models are indicating more of a SSW to NNE flow, which would make it somewhat difficult for this to clear Canada

interesting can you explain further?

I think he is sayng Nova Scocia is in trouble..

[Stratosphere747]

12z GFS has it safely missing the CONUS and impacting Nova Scotia....

For those that live by the models...

[Hurricaneman]

there is even a chance I may have to watch it here in the coming days

[Derek Ortt]

yeah, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland need to carefully monitor the progress of Florence the next few days

[Windsurfer_NYC]

12z UKMET,another recurver.

Although it turns to the right, each point of Longitude is westward (or unchanged) -- none actually turn it east.

[PTrackerLA]

Fox news just metioned:

"Tropical storm Florence has formed in the Atlantic and it's path takes it on a collision course with the SE United States."

Seriously, it's absolutely ridiculous what the media reports on the news this year about storms.

[Steve H.]

I agree with Mr. Benson. Even though we have a consensus on this curving out to sea, this is the model runs today! Let's see if they show this on Friday. There are several shortwaves rotating through that show no ridging behind them at all, which is a bit suspect IMO. When storms gt to 65/70W and still are near 25N you cannot shout all clear for the continental US a week out. Not with the model performance we've seen lately and the pattern this summer. If we get blocking near the Canadian Maritimes ( as seems to be the case ) this can indicate a stronger ridge developing, and may foretell an indian summer. Don't write this or the one behind it off yet. Again, it should curve out to sea, but lets get closer to the event before stating it as fact.

[miamicanes177]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM SIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.1 46.8 285./11.1
6 17.2 47.4 288./ 5.7
12 17.7 47.8 323./ 5.9
18 18.4 48.5 312./ 9.1
24 19.0 49.2 310./ 9.5
30 19.8 49.8 326./ 9.1
36 20.6 50.3 328./ 9.7
42 21.4 51.4 304./13.1
48 21.9 52.6 295./12.5
54 22.7 54.0 298./14.8
60 22.9 55.4 281./13.2
66 23.4 57.0 287./15.5
72 23.8 58.3 285./12.0
78 24.0 59.5 283./11.7
84 24.5 60.6 292./11.2
90 25.0 61.6 297./10.4
96 25.5 62.6 301./10.0
102 26.2 63.4 308./ 9.5
108 26.8 63.9 319./ 7.8
114 27.3 64.4 315./ 7.0
120 28.0 64.8 332./ 7.2
126 28.7 65.0 344./ 7.7

[gatorcane]

thanks hopefully it is a fish

[Damar91]

In Dr. Masters blog, he was saying something about 91L's influence on the potental track of Florence. Would the models take this into consideration at this point?

[Nimbus]

The current models would have to all be wrong for Florence to make landfall on the US east coast. Historically the most common model error that ended up reducing recurve has been the underestimation of ridge building effects. Major hurricanes pump up the ridging significantly with their outflow.

A hurricane can release the energy equivalent of a 10 megaton bomb detonating every 20 minutes. Accurate forecasting becomes as important as predicting an enemy invation like Pearl harbor when you consider the possible consequences. You have to expect the NHC to be a little conservative with their track predictions this time of year.

[miamicanes177]

12Z gfdl making a huge northward shift. I had been about 24.3N when it hit 65W. Now the 12Z is at 28.7N and 65W.

[SouthFloridawx]

The current models would have to all be wrong for Florence to make landfall on the US east coast. Historically the most common model error that ended up reducing recurve has been the underestimation of ridge building effects. Major hurricanes pump up the ridging significantly with their outflow.

A hurricane can release the energy equivalent of a 10 megaton bomb detonating every 20 minutes. Accurate forecasting becomes as important as predicting an enemy invation like Pearl harbor when you consider the possible consequences. You have to expect the NHC to be a little conservative with their track predictions this time of year.

Excellent Point.