T.S Florence Models Thread

[SouthFloridawx]

I am creating this thread so we can focus on the model runs in the coming days. We have been posting it in the other thread which is ok but, the Model runs get buried under a bunch of other posts in the thread.

Here is the 144 Hour Analysis from the Global Models and Early Guidance Runs.

CMC 12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

GFS 12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

NOGAPS 12Z 132 Hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=132hr

UKMET 12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

12Z Early Guidance
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM SIX (AL062006) ON 20060905 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060905 1200 060906 0000 060906 1200 060907 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 46.8W 18.6N 47.9W 19.9N 49.1W 21.2N 50.5W
BAMM 17.2N 46.8W 18.2N 48.3W 18.9N 49.6W 19.7N 50.8W
A98E 17.2N 46.8W 17.9N 48.9W 18.8N 50.8W 20.0N 52.8W
LBAR 17.2N 46.8W 18.4N 48.4W 19.8N 50.1W 21.1N 51.8W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 48KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060907 1200 060908 1200 060909 1200 060910 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 52.2W 23.8N 56.8W 25.7N 61.8W 28.3N 66.3W
BAMM 20.2N 52.3W 21.7N 55.7W 23.9N 59.8W 26.8N 64.4W
A98E 20.9N 54.9W 22.7N 60.1W 23.9N 65.2W 24.5N 68.8W
LBAR 22.2N 53.8W 24.1N 58.5W 25.9N 63.3W 27.8N 67.0W
SHIP 60KTS 74KTS 83KTS 89KTS
DSHP 60KTS 74KTS 83KTS 89KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.2N LONCUR = 46.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 44.7W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 42.3W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

Intensity Guidance
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity2.png

[SouthFloridawx]

12Z GFDL
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM SIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.1 46.8 285./11.1
6 17.2 47.4 288./ 5.7
12 17.7 47.8 323./ 5.9
18 18.4 48.5 312./ 9.1
24 19.0 49.2 310./ 9.5
30 19.8 49.8 326./ 9.1
36 20.6 50.3 328./ 9.7
42 21.4 51.4 304./13.1
48 21.9 52.6 295./12.5
54 22.7 54.0 298./14.8
60 22.9 55.4 281./13.2
66 23.4 57.0 287./15.5
72 23.8 58.3 285./12.0
78 24.0 59.5 283./11.7
84 24.5 60.6 292./11.2
90 25.0 61.6 297./10.4
96 25.5 62.6 301./10.0
102 26.2 63.4 308./ 9.5
108 26.8 63.9 319./ 7.8
114 27.3 64.4 315./ 7.0
120 28.0 64.8 332./ 7.2
126 28.7 65.0 344./ 7.7

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 47.3W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.09.2006 17.5N 47.3W WEAK

00UTC 06.09.2006 17.5N 49.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2006 18.6N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.09.2006 19.0N 53.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2006 19.0N 56.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2006 20.5N 57.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2006 21.4N 60.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2006 23.4N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2006 24.2N 65.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2006 26.0N 67.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.09.2006 26.6N 68.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.09.2006 29.4N 69.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.09.2006 31.3N 69.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


12z UKMET text.

[TampaSteve]

I know it's early yet, but the more info I see about the potential track of Florence, the more it looks like a fish storm...no US landfall at all.

[SouthFloridawx]

18Z Global Models

GFS 144 Hour
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

UKMET 48 Hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=048hr

18Z Early Guidance
698
WHXX01 KWBC 051943
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060905 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060905 1800 060906 0600 060906 1800 060907 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 48.0W 18.3N 49.1W 19.5N 50.3W 20.7N 51.7W
BAMM 17.2N 48.0W 17.9N 49.3W 18.8N 50.5W 19.5N 51.7W
A98E 17.2N 48.0W 17.7N 50.2W 18.3N 52.3W 19.2N 54.4W
LBAR 17.2N 48.0W 18.0N 49.8W 19.3N 51.6W 20.6N 53.6W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 57KTS 64KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 57KTS 64KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060907 1800 060908 1800 060909 1800 060910 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.7N 53.4W 23.3N 57.3W 25.4N 61.7W 27.9N 65.0W
BAMM 20.4N 53.0W 22.1N 56.3W 24.6N 60.4W 27.6N 64.4W
A98E 19.9N 56.6W 21.2N 61.1W 22.2N 65.1W 23.0N 67.1W
LBAR 21.8N 55.7W 23.8N 60.3W 25.9N 64.7W 28.5N 67.2W
SHIP 71KTS 82KTS 89KTS 93KTS
DSHP 71KTS 82KTS 89KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.2N LONCUR = 48.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 16.8N LONM12 = 45.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.4N LONM24 = 43.6W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$



http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity2.png

[HenkL]

ECMWF 12z medium range loop:
http://tinyurl.com/hwle7

[SouthFloridawx]

285
WHXX04 KWBC 052332
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE 06L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.1 48.0 280./11.1
6 17.5 48.5 309./ 6.1
12 18.2 49.3 313./10.3
18 18.8 50.1 309./ 9.6
24 19.6 50.8 317./10.0
30 20.6 51.3 334./11.0
36 21.4 52.4 307./13.5
42 22.1 53.6 300./12.7
48 22.9 55.0 299./15.9
54 23.3 56.3 288./12.1
60 23.8 57.7 287./14.0
66 24.3 58.8 298./11.3
72 24.9 60.0 295./12.5
78 25.3 61.1 292./10.5
84 25.8 62.1 295./10.1
90 26.5 62.8 313./ 9.6
96 27.2 63.6 314./10.6
102 27.9 64.2 316./ 8.3
108 28.5 64.8 313./ 7.8
114 28.9 65.0 340./ 5.1
120 29.6 65.3 340./ 6.9
126 30.0 65.2 4./ 4.5

[hurricanetrack]

So there it is. The GFDL now shows it east of north. I think the door is about to close and close tightly on this one. The models are just too consistent on this one- hard to see how this will ever get past 65 West. The models are going to have to really begin moving back to the west on future runs from now on for me to consider that this will make it anywhere near the East Coast. If I were in Bermuda, I would be a little more concerned.

[Scorpion]

Look at the XTRAP and look at the models. Enough said.

[Damar91]

Exactly. For Florence to follow those models it would have to jog NW pretty darn quick!

[SouthFloridawx]

Exactly. For Florence to follow those models it would have to jog NW pretty darn quick!

Especially the GFDL. But, how knows maybe it'll start turning more northerly tonight. We'll find out tomorrow what happend tonight LOL.

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL is likely out to lunch

We have a shallow system, so I don't think the UL will turn the system to a NNW heading. It may keep it a weak sheared system though and prove to be yet another blown shear forecast

[MiamiensisWx]

I, too, think a faster northwest turn tonight and into early tomorrow morning is a bit unlikely, as the weak ULL is keeping the LLC more to the south and on a more just north of due west heading, as seen here (visible is not as available now due to darkness). At the same time, the system is getting steered by the low-level to mid-level ridging in the vicinity while interacting with the weak ULL. Based on this, a just north of due west to west-northwest continuing heading of the LLC into roughly the early morning hours tomorrow may be most likely. Just two cents.

[Meso]

GFDL 18z model run

[SouthFloridawx]

[cinlfla]

GFDL 18z model run

That is not going to happan its lifting Florence to soon.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060906 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060906 0000 060906 1200 060907 0000 060907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 49.0W 18.5N 50.6W 19.6N 52.2W 20.8N 54.0W
BAMM 17.5N 49.0W 18.2N 50.6W 19.0N 52.1W 19.9N 53.6W
A98E 17.5N 49.0W 18.2N 50.9W 19.2N 52.8W 20.7N 54.7W
LBAR 17.5N 49.0W 18.6N 50.8W 19.9N 52.8W 21.2N 55.0W
SHIP 40KTS 46KTS 54KTS 62KTS
DSHP 40KTS 46KTS 54KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060908 0000 060909 0000 060910 0000 060911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.8N 55.9W 23.6N 59.5W 25.7N 62.7W 27.6N 64.6W
BAMM 21.0N 55.2W 23.2N 58.3W 26.2N 62.3W 28.6N 65.1W
A98E 22.0N 57.0W 24.3N 62.1W 26.3N 66.6W 26.8N 68.7W
LBAR 22.5N 57.2W 24.4N 61.9W 26.7N 65.6W 29.1N 66.8W
SHIP 69KTS 83KTS 92KTS 94KTS
DSHP 69KTS 83KTS 92KTS 94KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 49.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 46.9W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.6N LONM24 = 44.7W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 125NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 90NM

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

The 00Z has the Synoptics in different places this is showing a more westward track.