Analysis of Florence: timing may mean everything

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is just an analysis of the synoptics that may affect Florence and how intertwined factors may make big differences in terms of a landfall vicinity if Florence impacts the Eastern Seaboard.

Based on this FSU run and the synoptics, timing, position of the LLC of Florence, and movement of Florence, as well as the synoptic factors of a possible positive NAO and EPO and the timing and intensity of the ridging/troughing will make big differences. Here's a graphic that goes into details on my thoughts on the synoptics and why timing will be everything...



The timing of the two ridging complexes merging, as well as Florence's possible more southerly track, as well as the intensity and movement/speed of Florence and the positive EPO/NAO synoptics, as well as the timing and intensity and speed of rate of the trough progged to approach the Eastern Seaboard, will all make big differences in regards to track and possible threatened areas if Florence impacts the Eastern Seaboard. On this visible loop, you can see clear evidence a further south (south-southwest) relocation of the broad circulation center (LLC) near 17N and 47W.

Based on the more southerly (south-southwest) relocation of the broad circulation center (LLC) of Florence, as the first ULT (upper-level trough) creating shearing over Florence pulls out, mid-level steering currents and the west-northwest movement of the relocated LLC may support a slightly more southerly track than indicated by the guidance.

Any thoughts? As for Herbert's Box, it has been proven to be unreliable, as synoptics vary. Andrew only clipped Herbert's Box, and the synoptics prove that you can't rely on magic theories for accurate synopsis.

This is not -removed-, either, nor is it a forecast. This is unofficial and just an analysis of the synoptics.

[Dean4Storms]

I see the same possible two scenario's Cape. That Canadian Ridge diving ESE this time with the storm just north of the islands could spell trouble for the east coast. I'm not sold on the weakness being enough to allow Florence northward.

[MiamiensisWx]

Any more thoughts?

[tgenius]

Any more thoughts?

How comfortable do you feel for us in South FL right now CVW... After Andrew I lost faith in "ridges will weaken and move north...

[MiamiensisWx]

How comfortable do you feel for us in South FL right now CVW... After Andrew I lost faith in "ridges will weaken and move north...

Right now, if Florence threatens the Eastern Seaboard, I think a threat to the Carolinas may be slightly more likely than a Florida hit due to the synoptics, but not by much.

[gatorcane]

How comfortable do you feel for us in South FL right now CVW... After Andrew I lost faith in "ridges will weaken and move north...

Right now, if Florence threatens the Eastern Seaboard, I think a threat to the Carolinas may be slightly more likely than a Florida hit due to the synoptics, but not by much.

Really how likely is that track into Palm Beach.....I think it is looking less and less likely by the hour based on new model runs.

[MiamiensisWx]

Really how likely is that track into Palm Beach.....I think it is looking less and less likely by the hour based on new model runs.

I never said either of those two general paths were likely... they were and are just rough estimates of possible paths if Florence threatens the Eastern Seaboard.

As for models, many have stated that the LLC may have relocated further southwest, which may result, along with the synoptics, in a more southerly track than some of the guidance through 100 hours.

[Thunder44]

It's possible the models are too strong with trough and it will not be enough to erode the ridge in the North Atlantic to allow Florence to escape to the NE. But I feel it will be enough to erode the ridge to allow a NW and North movement for at least awhile before it can possibily build back up again with the aid of the Canadian block. That minimizes the threat south of NC/SC border.

[fci]

You should look at Don Sutherland's analysis in the Tropical Analysis forum.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's possible the models are too strong with trough and it will not be enough to erode the ridge in the North Atlantic to allow Florence to escape to the NE. But I feel it will be enough to erode the ridge to allow a NW and North movement for at least awhile before it can possibily build back up again with the aid of the Canadian block. That minimizes the threat south of NC/SC border.

That's my general line of thinking as well.

You should look at Don Sutherland's analysis in the Tropical Analysis forum.

It's a solid analysis, but there are still remaining uncertainties.

[CrazyC83]

Right now, I see four possible scenarios (ultimately). I am going to draw them up. Only one of them makes Florence a fishie.

[Damar91]

Just a stupid question, aren't the models usually really bad in forecasting ridges and troughs that far out? And if so, isn't it kind of hard to say with any certainity where this will go until we get a little further out?

[JonathanBelles]

whats NAO?

[Thunder44]

Just a stupid question, aren't the models usually really bad in forecasting ridges and troughs that far out? And if so, isn't it kind of hard to say with any certainity where this will go until we get a little further out?

Sure, but we can still talk about it.

[MiamiensisWx]

whats NAO?

It's the abbreviation for North Atlantic Oscillation. NOAA has several good site outlets on the Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillation processes.

[TampaSteve]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is just an analysis of the synoptics that may affect Florence and how intertwined factors may make big differences in terms of a landfall vicinity if Florence impacts the Eastern Seaboard.

Based on this FSU run and the synoptics, timing, position of the LLC of Florence, and movement of Florence, as well as the synoptic factors of a possible positive NAO and EPO and the timing and intensity of the ridging/troughing will make big differences. Here's a graphic that goes into details on my thoughts on the synoptics and why timing will be everything...



The timing of the two ridging complexes merging, as well as Florence's possible more southerly track, as well as the intensity and movement/speed of Florence and the positive EPO/NAO synoptics, as well as the timing and intensity and speed of rate of the trough progged to approach the Eastern Seaboard, will all make big differences in regards to track and possible threatened areas if Florence impacts the Eastern Seaboard. On this visible loop, you can see clear evidence a further south (south-southwest) relocation of the broad circulation center (LLC) near 17N and 47W.

Based on the more southerly (south-southwest) relocation of the broad circulation center (LLC) of Florence, as the first ULT (upper-level trough) creating shearing over Florence pulls out, mid-level steering currents and the west-northwest movement of the relocated LLC may support a slightly more southerly track than indicated by the guidance.

Any thoughts? As for Herbert's Box, it has been proven to be unreliable, as synoptics vary. Andrew only clipped Herbert's Box, and the synoptics prove that you can't rely on magic theories for accurate synopsis.

This is not -removed-, either, nor is it a forecast. This is unofficial and just an analysis of the synoptics.

Possible "back door" storm for Tampa, a la Frances and Jeanne?

[gatorcane]

I think the chances of Florence impacting Tampa are about 0.001% right now...

(with disclaimer as seen above)

[CrazyC83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here are the four scenarios I can think of, based on the ridge holding, advancing westward or retreating eastward, plus a potential trough:



Some storms comparable to each scenario:

1 - Fabian, Felix (95)

2 - Edouard (96), Irene (05)

3 - Isabel, Floyd

4 - Frances, Andrew

[TampaSteve]

I think the chances of Florence impacting Tampa are about 0.001% right now...

(with disclaimer as seen above)

Heh heh...if you go by the historical tracks, Flo is gonna be a fish storm...

[whereverwx]

Excellent analysis, CapeVerdeWave!