T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z gfdl making a huge northward shift. I had been about 24.3N when it hit 65W. Now the 12Z is at 28.7N and 65W.

Id call it more of an extention to previous run..

[Stormavoider]

The 2PM disco mentions an ULL developing near 25N 55W. This is apparent on WV. Will this ULL give Florence an early boot to the north?

[KWT]

Also worth noting that Florance current track is to the south of just about every model bar the UKMO which problem means the models will constantly adjust westward slightly until it starts to pick up a slightly higher angle of attack. I think the general trend is pretty solid but the eventual system could well get quite a way further west before it actually undergoes that northward turn. I'd say most likely place for a landfall would indeed be Nova Scotia though if the north turn is delayed possibly the NE of the USA could have to watch it closely.

[Sanibel]

I think I see a lift already.

Hints at reconvecting.

Almost a certain oceanic recurver.

[miamicanes177]

12Z gfdl making a huge northward shift. I had been about 24.3N when it hit 65W. Now the 12Z is at 28.7N and 65W.

Id call it more of an extention to previous run..

4.4 further north at 65W. That is a significant jump in my opinion.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looks more like the ULL will provide shear. Going to keep development slow.

[gatorcane]

Looks more like the ULL will provide shear. Going to keep development slow.

2006 the year of troughs and ULLs....lets see how it can get to this one.

[primez]

Is there any chance of Florence hitting Long Island? Some of the Long Range forecasts look that way to me....

[storms in NC]

This is JMO here and that is all.

Now as far as history goes We have the same weather pattern as in 1999. We had Dennis come and dump rain on of them 2 week after that Floyd. I see the same thing happening again. Florence is just about the same spot that Floyd was but a little north and west Floyd was around 14 north and 45 west Florence is 17.5 north and 47.3 west So that tell me it could run up the east coast. If it does it will be a flood like 1999. I still have water here. Yes some of it has gone down.
But with that said. I will say I don't know where it will go. But you can bet your bottom dollar I will not sit and wait before they will make their mines. I will move my stuff out of my house 5-4 days it is to hit here. I am not saying it is going to but it could.

You all in Fla can have all the rain you want I don't want any more for a while.
Like my grandson ask me granny can I come over and go fishing?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/1745 UTC 17.1N 48.0W T2.0/2.5 FLORENCE -- Atlantic Ocean

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Too sum things up; the Future of Florence is rather uncertain:


...CENTRAL/EAST...

STNRY FRONT AND ASSOC FOCUS FOR RNFL NEAR THE SE COAST INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD DISSIPATE FRI-SAT. LOCALIZED BOUNDARIES MAY
STILL SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THOUGH. COLD FRONT PUSHING
SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS/GRTLKS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LGT-MDT
RNFL. A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE COULD ENHANCE RNFL IN THE UPR GRTLKS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE OUTLOOK REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK/TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY
TRY TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOC WITH
ENERGY DEPARTING FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW WITH HOW QUICKLY RNFL OVER THE PLAINS ON FRI-SAT WILL PROGRESS
EWD-NEWD. TRENDS/CONSENSUS SUGGEST A SLOWER TIMING THAN FCST BY
RECENT GFS RUNS. WARMEST TEMPS COMPARED TO NORMAL SHOULD BE OVER
THE GRTLKS/NEW ENG FRI AHEAD OF THE APPCHG COLD FRONT... AND OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL SUPPORT A COOLING TREND.

...TROPICS...

CONSULT LATEST TPC DISCUSSIONS AND ADVISORIES FOR INFO REGARDING
T.S. FLORENCE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURCN STRENGTH BY DAY 3
FRI. COORDINATED TPC/HPC FCST BRINGS THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FARTHER
WWD THAN YDAYS FCST... TO 29.5N 72W BY DAY 7... BASED ON RECENT
DATA SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM MAY INITIALLY BE A LITTLE FARTHER S
THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE EAST COAST SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A WLY COMPONENT TO SUPPORT
RECURVATURE ONCE FLORENCE REACHES THE DAY 7 POSN BUT UNCERTAINTY
WITH ORIENTATION OF UPSTREAM NOAM FLOW AT THAT TIME... AND
QUESTION MARKS ABOUT THE TRACK THRU DAY 5... STILL LEAVE THE DOOR
OPEN TO SIGNIFICANT TRACK ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FUTURE.


RAUSCH/CISCO


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[jpigott]

Is there any threat that Florence will remain disorganized enough to keep chugging westward with the lower level flow. There was a bunch of "homebrew" development last year from these types of systems that did not get going until they got to the western atlantic/carib

[gatorcane]

I think out of the two systems we have 91L has the higher chance of landfalling probability - my eyes are fociusing on 91L as it moves Westward at 10 mph

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89296

[storms in NC]

As we All know very well the models will change back and forth for the next 3-5 days.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060905 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060905 1800 060906 0600 060906 1800 060907 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 48.0W 18.3N 49.1W 19.5N 50.3W 20.7N 51.7W
BAMM 17.2N 48.0W 17.9N 49.3W 18.8N 50.5W 19.5N 51.7W
A98E 17.2N 48.0W 17.7N 50.2W 18.3N 52.3W 19.2N 54.4W
LBAR 17.2N 48.0W 18.0N 49.8W 19.3N 51.6W 20.6N 53.6W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 49KTS 56KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 49KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060907 1800 060908 1800 060909 1800 060910 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.7N 53.4W 23.3N 57.3W 25.4N 61.7W 27.9N 65.0W
BAMM 20.4N 53.0W 22.1N 56.3W 24.6N 60.4W 27.6N 64.4W
A98E 19.9N 56.6W 21.2N 61.1W 22.2N 65.1W 23.0N 67.0W
LBAR 21.8N 55.7W 23.8N 60.3W 25.9N 64.7W 28.5N 67.2W
SHIP 63KTS 75KTS 85KTS 91KTS
DSHP 63KTS 75KTS 85KTS 91KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.2N LONCUR = 48.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 16.8N LONM12 = 45.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.4N LONM24 = 43.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 90NM

[EDR1222]

Definately a watch and wait mode right now. With the fact that it should make it well west of Bermuda, the SE U.S. mainly north of Florida should still keep an eye out. Still way to early to know where it will go, but we all know how things can change.

[El Nino]

cat2, and not far of a major hurricane

[whereverwx]

Is this the Florence I once knew?

[SouthFloridawx]

Is there any threat that Florence will remain disorganized enough to keep chugging westward with the lower level flow. There was a bunch of "homebrew" development last year from these types of systems that did not get going until they got to the western atlantic/carib

How I see it is that Currently Flo has very little convection and as long as that is happening it should continue to follow the low level flow until the organization is such to be steered by the Mid to Upper Levels down the road. IMO the general northward track may be adjusted farther south and we may see a more westerly track due to the nature of the current organization.

Also if the current lack of convection continues over the next day or so the effects from the ULL may be limited due to the fact that this would be a low level system rather than the Mid-Upper Level system. ULL's do not steer features that are at the surface they help to shear or steer features that are in the Mid to Upper levels by creating a weakness in the Mid to Upper Level ridge.

There are a few scenario's currently for FLO and I doubt that we'll know more for a few more days.

[JTD]

Why is Florences censored in the graphic calamity?