TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[MiamiensisWx]

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[cycloneye]

Remember,no chatting about off-topic things as there is a chatroom for those conversations.

[shaggy]

Its going to be interesting to see how the models play this out in the long run.The new UKMET sure does show a strong high to the north of the system but the GFS is the opposite and shows a weakness so i guess in 4 days the NHC will have a plot somewhere close to land or showing it recurve but until that shows up on the maps its a long time to wait and watch.

[HURAKAN]

Throughout the day the convection has been getting and firing-up closer to the center. Could we see tomorrow Florence's center under a CDO or will the shear be still too strong.

[SouthFLTropics]

Just for the record, I don't think this will make it to the states and as of right now I am going with the NHC and thinking that recurvature is most likely. Although, Stewart did have some interesting language in the 11:00AM discussion that made me think that there still is an outside chance of this reaching the states. I may end up eating crow for making a statement like this. I know back in 04 when Jeanne began to track North off of the Dominican Republic that I wrote her off and said that she would be heading out to the fishies. BOY WAS I WRONG...and stunned to check the models a few days later to find her pointing right at ME. Watching this storm form has been like watching water boil. As long as you stand there and watch it nothing happens. I was away from the computer today for a while and when I came back we had TS Florence. Probably if I go away again the models will flip all over the place and she'll be Hurricane Florence. LOL.

[TampaFl]

Jeff Master's thoughts on Floreance & the early model runs;

The computer models all forecast that Florence will pass north of the Lesser Antilles Islands, although it is too far in the future to be highly confident of this forecast. A complicating factor is the development of a new disturbance about 800 miles to the east-southeast. This new disturbance, officially designated "Invest 91L" this morning by NHC, is close enough to alter both the strength and track of TD 6. Anytime two storms get within 13 degrees of arc of each other (900 miles), the two storms tend to rotate around a common center (the Fujiwhara effect). The computer models do make some allowances for this effect, but are not very good at handling it. For this reason, one should be suspicious of the track and intensity forecasts for Florence and 91L as long as they are so close. The intensities of both storms can also change as a result of the interaction, with both storms intensifying at a slower rate than they otherwise would, or one storm growing at the expense of the other. If the two storms approach within about 7 arc-degrees of each other (480 miles), this is considered the "zone of death" where one cyclone will surely destroy the other. The surviving storm will not be a "superstorm" that has the combined size and strength of the two storms, however.

The long-range GFS model forecast continues to show Florence becoming a powerful hurricane that threatens Bermuda, but recurves out to sea well east of the U.S. East Coast. Again, it is too early to be confident of this forecast. Keep in mind that early model forecasts are often very unreliable. That is because the center is not well established and often relocates, and that subtle difference can make major
track changes. Also, the global models such as the GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS represent a weak storm as a very diffuse entity, and that causes problems for the global models and the "zoomed in" models like the GFDL that use a global model (the GFS) as their starting points. Be wary of the track forecasts until the system becomes more established. Tomorrow morning we should have a better idea of the models' reliabilty, since Florence should be better established.

From Jeff Masters @ Weatherunderground.com

[Robjohn53]

Thats the way things og for me as well when i go away lol

[MortisFL]

the gfdl assumes the system will pass 50W at 20N...i dont think thats happening.

[cycloneye]

the gfdl assumes the system will pass 50W at 20N...i dont think thats happening.

That is a sure thing about Florence.Already at 48w.

[Aquawind]

Reminder!

When copying information from other websites everyone needs to provide a direct link to the original data. Thank You

[MortisFL]

the gfdl assumes the system will pass 50W at 20N...i dont think thats happening.

That is a sure thing about Florence.Already at 48w.

Yep, and the the GFS derived model suite is on board with GFDL as well...can pretty much throw those out on this run.

MM5 and UKMET are more realistic.

[storms in NC]

You really seem to really like Jeff Masters. I am sorry I just don't really care for him or good old JB. I really put my trust in NHC. It is true they even have trouble at times but hey we are all human

JMO I was just looking at the vloop and I don't see how this storm could recruve back over the Atlantic. There is the Bermuda high that will be in it way. It could move off shore up the eastern seaboard. I still see more of a west movement right now. More like wwnw. I know there is no wwnw but you know what I mean.

[Stormavoider]

280?

[HURAKAN]

[Bgator]

I see a motion at 280-290 as of now...more 280 like though..Looking at visible loop

[Derek Ortt]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/06090519

Models were re-initialized at 40KT, indicating that NHC sees this slowly intensifying (I see it about to, but would not have raised the intensity to 40KT)

[tgenius]

280 is closer to WNW then 300-315 which is almost NNW right?

[El Nino]

40 kts, 1003mb according to last image ?

[El Nino]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/06090519

Models were re-initialized at 40KT, indicating that NHC sees this slowly intensifying (I see it about to, but would not have raised the intensity to 40KT)

93 kts

[Zardoz]

Man, it's really shaping up now, isn't it? :

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html