WTPZ42 KNHC 051430
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 05 2006
JUST WHEN WE THINK THAT KRISTY IS DONE FOR... A STRONG BURST OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS NOW SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... AND
KRISTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM... AGAIN. THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE SURVIVED THE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...
RELAXING SOMEWHAT DUE TO AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
EAST... BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE STORM IS PRETTY
MARGINAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. A STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUD LAYER IS TRYING TO WRAP INTO THE STORM'S CIRCULATION AND
SHIPS DIAGNOSES RATHER DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS
BEYOND 48 HOURS. HOWEVER... SSTS STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 26C FOR THE
PERIOD... AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THEREFORE... KRISTY ISN'T EXPECT TO FLOURISH BUT...
UNFORTUNATELY... DISSIPATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY HOLD ON TO THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT 5 DAYS... AND SO
DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST... 275/7. A
DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD PUSH KRISTY WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER RATE FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER... THE RIDGE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE... CAUSING THE
STORM TO FOLLOW A WESTWARD COURSE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS.. BUT NOT AS FAR TO THE NORTH AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 16.4N 121.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 16.7N 123.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 17.1N 125.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 17.5N 128.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 17.5N 131.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 17.5N 134.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 17.5N 137.5W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
