Invest 91L Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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DESTRUCTION5
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#61 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 1:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:WHXX04 KWBC 051735
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.4 32.7 275./11.1
6 14.3 33.7 266./10.0
12 14.4 34.8 278./10.4
18 15.1 36.2 294./14.8
24 15.6 37.6 292./14.9
30 16.2 38.8 293./12.7
36 16.6 39.9 294./11.4
42 16.9 41.2 281./12.1
48 17.4 42.3 292./11.6
54 18.0 43.3 302./12.3
60 18.5 44.2 297./ 8.8
66 18.9 45.0 300./ 8.7
72 19.2 46.1 286./11.3
78 19.5 47.4 283./12.3
84 19.4 48.2 262./ 8.3
90 19.0 49.1 246./ 9.0
96 19.3 50.4 284./12.6
102 19.4 51.6 272./11.4
108 19.6 52.7 284./10.1
114 19.7 54.0 274./12.6
120 19.5 55.2 258./12.0
126 19.7 56.4 281./11.2

12z GFDL for 91L.


Westward Ho for this one...
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#62 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 05, 2006 1:32 pm

This one will be much more close to that 20n-60w position.
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#63 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 1:34 pm

If this does form, I either see an immediate recurvature or no recurving at all - straight into the Caribbean. I can't see it following Florence's footsteps.
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#64 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2006 1:35 pm

yeah this is the one to watch for any landfalling prospects...just a feeling
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#65 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2006 1:42 pm

latest image:

Image
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#66 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 1:48 pm

I think this one is just just as likely stay away from the US. It's already at higher latitude and further east than Florence. Even though the ridge might build to force a more westerly path for while. It will also have the Fugiwari affect from Florence and tend to head in it's path.
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#67 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 1:49 pm

It has to survive the interaction with Flo first.

Latest run of the WRF shows three systems, with this one heading towards the Caribbean and Flo gradually recurving..
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#68 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Tue Sep 05, 2006 1:56 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060905 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060905 1800 060906 0600 060906 1800 060907 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.5N 34.3W 15.0N 36.5W 15.5N 38.7W 16.0N 40.9W
BAMM 14.5N 34.3W 15.3N 36.6W 16.4N 38.6W 17.6N 40.3W
A98E 14.5N 34.3W 14.9N 36.9W 15.4N 39.5W 16.0N 42.0W
LBAR 14.5N 34.3W 15.0N 36.9W 15.8N 39.6W 16.4N 42.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060907 1800 060908 1800 060909 1800 060910 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.1N 42.9W 15.5N 46.5W 14.6N 49.0W 14.1N 50.6W
BAMM 18.2N 41.5W 18.3N 43.3W 18.2N 44.4W 19.1N 45.8W
A98E 16.2N 44.6W 17.1N 49.4W 17.2N 53.9W 15.8N 57.7W
LBAR 16.7N 45.1W 16.6N 49.9W 15.9N 52.9W 14.8N 54.6W
SHIP 46KTS 53KTS 57KTS 61KTS
DSHP 46KTS 53KTS 57KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 34.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 31.9W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 29.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#69 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 2:02 pm

This one could easily turn straight north like Debby did (that was well-predicted by most of us, although we were off some on intensity)...
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#70 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 05, 2006 2:08 pm

Image
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#71 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 2:09 pm

Usually whe this set up happens the one further east comes west...
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#72 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Sep 05, 2006 2:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:Image


this is the best model agreement that i have ever seen!!!
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#73 Postby TampaFl » Tue Sep 05, 2006 2:51 pm

Jeff Masters thoughts on 91L & Floreance interaction:

The computer models all forecast that Florence will pass north of the Lesser Antilles Islands, although it is too far in the future to be highly confident of this forecast. A complicating factor is the development of a new disturbance about 800 miles to the east-southeast. This new disturbance, officially designated "Invest 91L" this morning by NHC, is close enough to alter both the strength and track of TD 6. Anytime two storms get within 13 degrees of arc of each other (900 miles), the two storms tend to rotate around a common center (the Fujiwhara effect). The computer models do make some allowances for this effect, but are not very good at handling it. For this reason, one should be suspicious of the track and intensity forecasts for Florence and 91L as long as they are so close. The intensities of both storms can also change as a result of the interaction, with both storms intensifying at a slower rate than they otherwise would, or one storm growing at the expense of the other. If the two storms approach within about 7 arc-degrees of each other (480 miles), this is considered the "zone of death" where one cyclone will surely destroy the other. The surviving storm will not be a "superstorm" that has the combined size and strength of the two storms, however.

From Jeff Masters @ Weatherunderground.com
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#74 Postby Aquawind » Tue Sep 05, 2006 2:57 pm

this is the best model agreement that i have ever seen!!!


LOL..

That is an halarious spread in both direction and turns.. :lol:
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#75 Postby Lowpressure » Tue Sep 05, 2006 3:26 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Usually whe this set up happens the one further east comes west...


DAVID & FREDERICK
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#76 Postby Eyewall » Tue Sep 05, 2006 3:30 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Image


this is the best model agreement that i have ever seen!!!


thats definitely the worst...LOL
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#77 Postby Zardoz » Tue Sep 05, 2006 3:52 pm

I know it's deceptive, but this loop makes it look like it's trying to move south of Florence:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html

We'll see how the two of them interact over the next day or so...
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#78 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:11 pm

If it is moving south, then we'd better be praying to God that this blob goes poof...the chances of a fishie drop significantly...
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#79 Postby Damar91 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:If it is moving south, then we'd better be praying to God that this blob goes poof...the chances of a fishie drop significantly...


Could be a double whammy for someone....
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#80 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:15 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 960 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
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