Accuweather's Comments on Ernesto and NHC!

[flair]

Most of those winds that were occuring up there where during the transition phase of the system. There was a large area of high pressure to the north of this system and as the storm was morning north, it was creating a very tight pressure gradiant. This was resulting in very strong winds.

Seems to me that most all winds are the result of pressure differential. As tropical systems move into the mid latitude, they almost always interact with high pressure systems and if the winds created by this gradiant are = or greater than TS velocity then i would think the downgrading would not be called for. The States of VA, MD, DE, and NJ all experienced sustained winds over 39 MPH and gusts in the 60-75 mph range after Ernesto was a tropical deperssion.

Exactamundo!!! If watches/warnings were never posted for systems when there were strong highs to their north, we would almost never have warnings here in the US. I am not trying to bash the NHC, they do a heck of a job. I just don't think it was proper to not have TS warnings for at least VA (and maybe MD). Just my two cents.

[Pearl River]

A lot of the times JB's statements do not reflect the actual AccuWeather statements. Yes JB does not always agree with the NHC, but he does give them kudo's more than what people want to believe. I don't believe what was said in the article was libel by the definition given.

[Extremeweatherguy]

A lot of the times JB's statements do not reflect the actual AccuWeather statements. Yes JB does not always agree with the NHC, but he does give them kudo's more than what people want to believe. I don't believe what was said in the article was libel by the definition given.

yes, and JB also admits when he makes a mistake.

[linkerweather]

Most of those winds that were occuring up there where during the transition phase of the system. There was a large area of high pressure to the north of this system and as the storm was morning north, it was creating a very tight pressure gradiant. This was resulting in very strong winds.

Seems to me that most all winds are the result of pressure differential. As tropical systems move into the mid latitude, they almost always interact with high pressure systems and if the winds created by this gradiant are = or greater than TS velocity then i would think the downgrading would not be called for. The States of VA, MD, DE, and NJ all experienced sustained winds over 39 MPH and gusts in the 60-75 mph range after Ernesto was a tropical deperssion.

Exactamundo!!! If watches/warnings were never posted for systems when there were strong highs to their north, we would almost never have warnings here in the US. I am not trying to bash the NHC, they do a heck of a job. I just don't think it was proper to not have TS warnings for at least VA (and maybe MD). Just my two cents.

SPlitting hairs.....there were warnings for wind, just not TS warnings. There were Gale Warnings in effect. Period. And gale conditions occurred. The event was properly warned.

Additionally, i don't think the article contained anything libelous, simply irresponsible reporting by leaving out the gale warning fact.

[brunota2003]

A lot of the times JB's statements do not reflect the actual AccuWeather statements. Yes JB does not always agree with the NHC, but he does give them kudo's more than what people want to believe. I don't believe what was said in the article was libel by the definition given.

plus the fact that the NHC is gov't...read that part...I was only passing that definition along as I thought it was interesting

[x-y-no]

Though I can't stand AccuWeather, they make some valid points here. Virginia was hit the hardest with Ernesto, but the TS warnings never made it past Currituck Beach Light, NC. There were sustained TS winds with gusts to around hurricane force on the VA coastline. This wasn't a "gale" or a "nor'easter" in VA, it was a tropical storm.

A gale warning means that sustained winds of 34-47 knots are expected. So explain how that was incorrect.


As for their ongoing practice of bashing the NHC ... Accuweather does not and never has issued verifiable position and intensity forecasts for tropical systems (JB did do so somewhat irregularly for a few storms, but never consistantly). Let them do that for a couple of years and equal or exceed the performance of the NHC and then maybe they'll have some basis for their criticisms. Until then, sorry, but no sale.

[Bailey1777]

Discredit the NHC and then pay me. Makes perfect sense to me $$$$$$$$$$$$

[Derecho]

I do enjoy reading Accuweather and I also have a lot of faith in what JB says. He did call Erni even told for days before where and how strong he though it would be when it hit.

Joe Bastardi, forecaster for AccuWeather in State College, Pennsylvania, expected the storm to gather strength as it passes slowly over the warm waters of the Caribbean, which ``means trouble.''

As the storm grows, it will ``come into the Gulf by Wednesday, and it looks like an energy-impacting situation for next week,'' he said.

Not that you're necessarily doing so, just making sure there's no post-event spin that JB or AccuWeather had Ernesto correct "all along" - I see no discernable evidence that either was more accurate than NHC for Ernesto, and both basically followed along with the models.

[Furious George]

From the article--

Expert Senior Meteorologist Dr. Joe Sobel was mystified by the NHC decisions. "While Ernesto was not a major hurricane, it was a formidable storm producing impacts similar to a minimal hurricane. The NHC's decision could have been tragic - sending the general public and Emergency Managers the wrong message about the storm."

That is where a lot of the anger from Accuwx comes from - the NHC having dropped the hurricane warnings.

Well guess what - Ernesto made landfall as a strong tropical storm. For those that wrote if off b/c if was not a hurricane - THAT IS YOUR PROBLEM. The NHC can't just lay down hurricane warnings along the entire cost for any storm that may produce a hurricane force gusts. I am very, very disappointed in the above statement by Dr. Sobel - my faith in Accuweather is dropping rapidly.

[Derecho]

From the article--
Well guess what - Ernesto made landfall as a strong tropical storm. For those that wrote if off b/c if was not a hurricane - THAT IS YOUR PROBLEM. The NHC can't just lay down hurricane warnings along the entire cost for any storm that may produce a hurricane force gusts. I am very, very disappointed in the above statement by Dr. Sobel - my faith in Accuweather is dropping rapidly.

There is an unfortunate general perception in the public that tropical storm watches and warnings are irrelevant - on contributor to this is the cone of error requiring such watches and warnings for people that actually get winds of about 20 kts or so.

Also, the range from 35 kts to 64 kts is pretty big, and the pressure of wind increases with the square of velocity - maybe we need another dividing line in there - I don't know.

Then when people get hit by a strong tropical storm - like Gabrielle crossing Florida - they're "surprised" that actual damage is caused.

One thing I've noticed JB and AccuWeather continually doing is indulging public misconceptions so they can get mileage out of them, instead of helping to educate the public. Instead of telling people that strong tropical storms aren't a joke and they need to be careful and prepared, they instead prefer to either claim strong tropical storms should get hurricane warnings, or get on a hobbyhorse attempting to claim the strong tropical storm was a hurricane (like JB and Gabrielle).

[Derek Ortt]

Also, the range from 35 kts to 64 kts is pretty big, and the pressure of wind increases with the square of velocity - maybe we need another dividing line in there - I don't know.

One possible dividor line that could be done is to eliminate TS warnings, and go with Gale and Storm Warnings. That would better warn the public as to whether they should expect low or high end TS winds.

The accuwx criticism is unfounded as the NWS did appropriately warn the coast. A Gale Warning is the same as a TS Warning for TS winds between 34-46KT, which is what occurred in coastal regions

[NetZeroZeus]

While I believe that the NHC did as well as it could given the circumstances, I think the NHC does make some errors in warnings sometimes. For example, last week Puerto Vallarta was under a hurricane warning from Hurricane John, yet we never got more than 10 mph sustained winds, basically a breeze. This made everyone hype up and close everything, which resulted in a loss of money and time, and I do believe that forecast could have been rectified.
As for Ernesto, the storm had a mind of it's own, so to speak, and the NHC, being a government agency, has absolutely no reason to not fulfill it's purpose, and I believe they are the highest qualified meteorologists out there, or at least I would hope so, seeing as millions of people depend on their forecasts.

[Derek Ortt]

The John warnings came from the Mexican Government, not the NHC. NHC only issues warnings for the USA

[george_r_1961]

Its not right for any private weather company to openly bash any proffesional organization including NHC. Period.

[flair]

One possible dividor line that could be done is to eliminate TS warnings, and go with Gale and Storm Warnings. That would better warn the public as to whether they should expect low or high end TS winds.

I think that is a good idea Derek. My gripe about the gale warnings is that a gale warning is, by definition (NWS glossary) a marine warning. A tropical storm warning is a coastal (and marine) warning. A lot of people were caught off guard in the Mid-Atlantic (including the local mets).

P.S. Good job on your forecast on Ernesto, Derek. You had it coming this way before many of the models and the NHC did. I show the guys at work your forecasts whenever there is a storm around.

[brunota2003]

hey flair...gale/storm warnings are only marine warnings as you stated, I think the NHC did a good job with what they did. Ernesto was not a hurricane...had they issued a Hurricane Warning, then people in the warning area would of thought they experienced Cat 1 winds, regardless of what the NHC said...then once they are actually threatend by one they will think its no sweat, I've been through it before...then once they received true Cat 1 winds, they would be even more caught off guard...the point is that people want to believe they have been through the highest winds a storm had, regardless of what side of the storm they went through...the NHC did not believe it would become a hurricane, therefore no warnings...then later on, they downgraded it to a TD, just as it was...just because a bouy reads 52 MPH sustained does not mean that the system is a true tropical storm as defined by "Da Rules" thus this is why they stated this:

THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

If the winds are not directly associated with the cyclone, then they don't count...the NHC does not issue the specifics for your local area...that comes down to your local NWS Forecasting Office...yet another example...this from the final advisory:

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS WEAKENED
AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE COAST. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

[NCWeatherChic]

I'll just say this....someone seems to be playing God while others do their jobs very well. Some people aren't as fortunate as we are to know about and utilize Storm2k for all our updates. So it's up to us to notify friends and family in areas that are "in the cone".

Personally I thought what Accuweather said to be disrespectful. Whether it's true or not, sometimes, buttoning your lip is better.

There is also a lingering question of whether the storm caught the National Hurricane Center off guard. On Tuesday, August 29, the NHC issued a Hurricane Watch for the Carolinas, but cancelled it the next morning when Ernesto weakened after its first landfall in Florida. As Ernesto strengthened in the Atlantic prior to its second landfall, the NHC issued a Hurricane Watch, but never upgraded the watch to a hurricane warning.

Although I strongly feel that cancelling the Hurricane Watch was a bad idea and not issuing a Hurricane Warning was even worse. We all knew he was coming with lots & lots of rain! The states north of NC weren't as prepared for the rain they received and they weren't properly notified but that is on the local mets. Which is where the average person gets their info.

Some like the decisions of the NHC, some don't, some like JB and his forecasts and some don't. It's just apples and oranges...I don't like oranges and who cares..but I don't go around talking bad about oranges.

Angela

[NCWeatherChic]

hey flair...gale/storm warnings are only marine warnings as you stated, I think the NHC did a good job with what they did. Ernesto was not a hurricane...had they issued a Hurricane Warning, then people in the warning area would of thought they experienced Cat 1 winds, regardless of what the NHC said...then once they are actually threatend by one they will think its no sweat, I've been through it before...then once they received true Cat 1 winds, they would be even more caught off guard...the point is that people want to believe they have been through the highest winds a storm had, regardless of what side of the storm they went through...the NHC did not believe it would become a hurricane, therefore no warnings...then later on, they downgraded it to a TD, just as it was...just because a bouy reads 52 MPH sustained does not mean that the system is a true tropical storm as defined by "Da Rules" thus this is why they stated this:

THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

If the winds are not directly associated with the cyclone, then they don't count...the NHC does not issue the specifics for your local area...that comes down to your local NWS Forecasting Office...yet another example...this from the final advisory:

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS WEAKENED
AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE COAST. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

Yeah, but sometimes the NHC needs to think "outside the box". KWIM

Angela

[Derek Ortt]

TS Warnings were not issued until 1987. Before that, Gale Warnings were issued (to cover all tropical storms, which made no sense since Gale winds stop at 46KT).

They should go back to Gale Warnings, but by all means, add Storm Warnings when necessary

Also, if Gale and Storm Warnings are already in effect, sometimes NHC will not put up a TS Warning (as they did with NC in November 1994 for Gordon), since the winds are already warned

[NCHurricane]

There was just a slight bit of inconsistency from the NHC with Ernie - IMO. After all they did issue Hurricane Warnings for Gaston in '04 with then reported 70MPH sustained winds.

Now granted, Gaston turned out in re-analysis to be a CAT1 'cane, but what's to say Ernie won't be either?

I'm not condoning AccuWx's bashing by any means, just making an observation.

Now returning to my lurker's chair.

Chuck Copeland
http://www.nchurricane.com