No Recurvature???

[bucman1]

Is there anything that would not make Florence recurve as it sounds like a forgone conclusion that it will??

[Damar91]

Is there anything that would not make Florence recurve as it sounds like a forgone conclusion that it will??

A stronger than anticipated ridge. Has happened before.....

[gatorcane]

if it can stay on the south side of the NHC cone, it has a higher likelyhood of not recurving. Already we have seen the models trending west today and I don't trust them that far out. It would remain on the south side for two reasons:

1) If the ridge is stronger to the north
2) If the storm stays weaker and thus gets pushed by the low-level easterlies.

[Meso]

If the ridge builds back more than the models are showing would be one way... It will recurve (99%) question is just by how much I think..JMO

[brunota2003]

it will recurve...the question is...when...

[jusforsean]

Yes the question of when??? Were not looking for a recurve in the middle of the state of florida!

[JonathanBelles]

Yes the question of when??? Were not looking for a recurve in the middle of the state of florida!

if it does im hoping for more than a breeze

[NCgreenhead]

If the system stays weaker and therefore stays further south farther out than forecast, and if the storm stays further south than forecast and misses the trough that is suppose to pick it up, and if it misses that trough that is suppose to pick it up and then is steered back NW under the new ridge then the east coast would have a big fat OH-OH headed its way but that is a whole lot of if's. However if this thing does not turn someone on the east coast is going to have a very bad week next week.

[Zardoz]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but is the center moving due west at the moment? :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[Damar91]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but is the center moving due west at the moment? :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

You are correct, my friend. However, remember consistency is the key!

[Weatherfreak14]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but is the center moving due west at the moment? :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

You are correct, my friend. However, remember consistency is the key!

Yes but any more west it goes the track moves west with it.

[mascpa]

Pretty close to it.
And is that 91L sneaking up on Flo from behind? Any possibility of a merger?

[Damar91]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but is the center moving due west at the moment? :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

You are correct, my friend. However, remember consistency is the key!

Yes but any more west it goes the track moves west with it.

And with that, a whole lot of chaos here!

[x-y-no]

Pretty close to it.
And is that 91L sneaking up on Flo from behind? Any possibility of a merger?

Not of a merger, no ... but it could impede development some, and if it's strong enough and close enough it could also influence Florence's track (leftward).

[Damar91]

Pretty close to it.
And is that 91L sneaking up on Flo from behind? Any possibility of a merger?

Not of a merger, no ... but it could impede development some, and if it's strong enough and close enough it could also influence Florence's track (leftward).

Dumb question, how would it influence Florence's track leftward?

[x-y-no]

Pretty close to it.
And is that 91L sneaking up on Flo from behind? Any possibility of a merger?

Not of a merger, no ... but it could impede development some, and if it's strong enough and close enough it could also influence Florence's track (leftward).

Dumb question, how would it influence Florence's track leftward?

Fujiwhara effect


EDIT: I note that the description I linked actually talkes about the effect eventually leading to a merger , but more commonly you just have smaller influence without the full sequence of events.

[sfwx]

Interesting discussion at 5:00 p.m. about the models....

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH 96 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER THAT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN EVENTUAL BREAK IN THE
RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 65W-75W FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. HOWEVER
...EACH RUN HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST.
GIVEN THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND THAT A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY DAY
5...THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FORECAST TO GENERATE THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
REMAINS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

[bucman1]

it sounds like some are given florida the "alls clear" already.

please understand I am not -removed- but thats what it sounds like.

[jusforsean]

it sounds like some are given florida the "alls clear" already.

please understand I am not -removed- but thats what it sounds like.

alls clear as in come on in the waters great or alls clear as far as go on with your life and stop scheduling your life around the latest model plots??

[Josephine96]

All clear can be a nasty word this early.. even if it's only a figure of speech..