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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Tropical Storm Florence HH Advisory 1
Tropical Storm Florence is a little less than a thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles. General movement is W at 12 MPH, and I expect that to pick up and turn a little more north in 24 hours. Winds are currently at 35 KT, or 40 MPH, and the pressure is at 1005 MB. The winds are not concentrated towards the center at this time. Florence is currently enduring strong shear, so no development is forecasted in the next 36 hours. However, rapid development is possible after 36 hours when the shear relaxes. Another result of the shear is that the thunderstorm activity is displaced from the center. My track is slightly more south than the NHC track. I expect Florence to take more of a West or West-North-West path in the 5 days due to a strong ridge north of Florence. On my track, the center of Florence should be around 250 miles north of Puerto Rico in 4 days and towards the Central Bahamas in 5 days.
INITIAL 35KT
12HR 35KT
24HR 40KT
48HR 50KT
72HR 60KT
USE WITH CAUTION:
96HR 75KT
120HR 90KT
HH Hurricane Florence Forecast # Special Advisory 13
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Evil Jeremy
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HH Hurricane Florence Forecast # Special Advisory 13
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:59 am, edited 11 times in total.
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Evil Jeremy
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gatorcane
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Evil Jeremy wrote:gatorcane wrote:you did a good job with Ernesto, what do you think about an East Coast hit...where and how strong?
i think that is is too early to tell, but give it a few days, and then i can tell you. right now, everyone from the keys to the carolinas have to watch this now.
interesting so you are obviously suggesting a more West track here......
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DESTRUCTION5
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Evil Jeremy
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weatherwoman
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tropicsgal05
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tropicsgal05 wrote:What are the chances of Florence moving into the GOM? Is it to early to know yet or is it definite it won't enter the GOM?
REAL unlikely.
She would have to go either through Florida or through the Straits which with the recurvature seems highly unlikely.
This one sure looks like it WILL NOT be a GOM'er.
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Scorpion
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Evil Jeremy
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Tropical Storm Florence HH Advisory 2
Florence continues to become better organized as it nears the Caribbean.
Tropical Storm Florence continues to strengthen over the Atlantic, with winds of 40KT, or 45 MPH currently. Its pressure has also lowered from 1005 MB to 1003 MB. Movement, as forecasted, has moved a bit more north, and the storm is now headed WNW at 12 MPH. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 2-3 days.
A ridge of high pressure is building over Florence. Most of the models forecast a weakness in the ridge now, so we have changed our forecast based on that. For our new cone, we have made little change in the first 2 days, but have nudged it a little more north on days Three, Four and Five. We have also slowed down the timing for Florence. Are cone now takes Florence to about 280-300 Miles above Puerto Rico at day 3, and close to the Bahamas on day 5. Intensity wise, the forecast is about the same, showing a Cat 1 above of Puerto Rico and a Cat 2 or 3 Entering the Bahamas. We expect the shear over Florence to continue for another 24 hours, allowing only limited strengthening. After then, it will be able to intensify into a hurricane. Please note that intensity forecasts for this advisory are very unreliable for 72 hours and beyond at the moment. Also note that even though Florida is now out of the main cone, we are still over a week away from any kind of landfall, so anywhere from Florida to the Carolinas need to closely watch the progress of Florence as it inches closer to us.
INITIAL 40KT
12HR 45KT
24HR 50KT
48HR 60KT
72HR 70KT
USE WITH CAUTION:
96HR 80KT
120HR 95KT
Tropical Storm Florence HH Advisory 2
Florence continues to become better organized as it nears the Caribbean.
Tropical Storm Florence continues to strengthen over the Atlantic, with winds of 40KT, or 45 MPH currently. Its pressure has also lowered from 1005 MB to 1003 MB. Movement, as forecasted, has moved a bit more north, and the storm is now headed WNW at 12 MPH. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 2-3 days.
A ridge of high pressure is building over Florence. Most of the models forecast a weakness in the ridge now, so we have changed our forecast based on that. For our new cone, we have made little change in the first 2 days, but have nudged it a little more north on days Three, Four and Five. We have also slowed down the timing for Florence. Are cone now takes Florence to about 280-300 Miles above Puerto Rico at day 3, and close to the Bahamas on day 5. Intensity wise, the forecast is about the same, showing a Cat 1 above of Puerto Rico and a Cat 2 or 3 Entering the Bahamas. We expect the shear over Florence to continue for another 24 hours, allowing only limited strengthening. After then, it will be able to intensify into a hurricane. Please note that intensity forecasts for this advisory are very unreliable for 72 hours and beyond at the moment. Also note that even though Florida is now out of the main cone, we are still over a week away from any kind of landfall, so anywhere from Florida to the Carolinas need to closely watch the progress of Florence as it inches closer to us.
INITIAL 40KT
12HR 45KT
24HR 50KT
48HR 60KT
72HR 70KT
USE WITH CAUTION:
96HR 80KT
120HR 95KT
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Evil Jeremy
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Evil Jeremy
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Evil Jeremy
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Florence has not strengthened at all over the last few hours, although organization has continued. The wind field has expanded to a 145 Mile radius, and it continues to expand. Florence continues to move WNW at 12 MPH, and we expect that to persist for 2-3 more days, before turning a little more north. South Carolina seems like the most likely target for a landfall right now. Our track is currently more south than the NHC track and doesnt forecast that big of a turn to the north. Recon Flights are recommended for Thursday and Friday.
Next Update: 5:30AM EDT
Next Update: 5:30AM EDT
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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