Florence size tricking the GFS?

[SouthFloridawx]

In 24 Hours GFS develops a fairly strong ridge.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

This is more of a question to you people out there in weather land and what you know about forecast models.

48 Hours... still a fairly decent ridge out there.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

Here is the 72 frame from the 18Z with a decent sized system.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

500mb 72 Hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif



Note that the ridge has an indent in the southwest side of the Center of the high. That indent is Florence.

Is it possible as I look a little farther in the run that since the system is fairly large in size that the model is creating a weakness that is not really a weakness but, the system itself?

At 84 hours the ridge is starting to get weaker on the NW quad.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

Bottom line of this post is.....

Since the forecast models are picking up on a weakness in the ridge could it actually be stronger than what it shows?
If the system is an large intense storm could it enhance the ridge to it's north and keep it moving on a WNW motion rather than NW?

Just something that I was thinking about. Give me your input and let me know what the deal is with this. I'm still inexperienced and still learning.

[Stormavoider]

How does Ernie figure into this?

[JonathanBelles]

ernesto?

[wxmann_91]

Well, it's obviously Florence, but all the models are showing this as a trough to the north induces a fairly substantial weakness.

[WindRunner]

And people say this season is slow . . .

And yes, I see what you are picking up on South, and I believe it is true. I would not at all be suprised if this ridge builds east moreso than any of the models are seeing as of now. A more head-on approach (i.e. NW instead of NNW) into the area of high pressure seems to be the most likely solution IMO.

[SouthFloridawx]

How does Ernie figure into this?

Ernie doesn't figure into this.

My fault... changed the title.

[Nimbus]

Before Florence can pump up the ridge she needs to organize better and establish a more symmetrical outflow. But yes a cat 3 storm might pump up the ridge more than forecast.

[weatherwindow]

good evening nathan.....a very reasonable possibility, short term...flo develops a significant outflow anticyclone which pumps up the gfs ridge....which may yeild a more westerly solution. however, nws/mia and hpc have both hyped the full latitude trough progged to move offshore late period....still feel confident that flo will run into a wall between 75 and 70deg w......rich