Not an official forecast, merely a speculation at this point by a weather hobbyist: See s2K disclaimer:
The discussion at 11 a.m noted the west motion would continue for 24 hrs right? Well 12 more hours to go then. The model runs, all but the globals will not "see" the true storm structure or synoptics and at this point in the game are not much help other than identify a consensus and a trend. Although we are still shy of 20N here, I'd throw out the statisticals, climos, and the dynamic models and go with a trend of the GFS, UKMET, Canadian and FSU ensemble ONCE a true center forms and persistent convection is present near the center or in other words the storm gains sufficient height to act like the models are programmed.
That said, it is pretty reasonable that another 12 hours or so of varying shear/lack of intensifying will let Florence drift with the low level winds on a W to WNW course. Then we may see the ULL retrograde and allow Florence to move under favorable upper level winds and stack up. By that time we would have Florence past 55W perhaps around 19.5 N. The synoptic set up still looks like a 50/50 bet regarding the Canadian high and Bermuda high joining forces to prevent recurvature. Furthermore, the storm having intensified and moved more poleward, may in fact build the ridge up and actually impede N/NE movement. All of that would be a bit more like a 70/30 bet against landfall, but in last runs of the UKMET, GFS and MM5 I see what appears to be a consensus of a weaker trough.
The bottom line is every tick west makes the odds swing toward landfall, and the analogs for me are Fran, Floyd, and to a lesser extent Hugo once Florence decides she will pass near 25N 70W.
For tonight I will watch here for the center since it's easier to see on shortwave IR turn on LON/LAT
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
