T.S Florence Models Thread

[tgenius]

The 00Z has the Synoptics in different places this is showing a more westward track.

If the 00Z runs are showing westward, IR + model runs would give the likelyhood of a west shift come 5am, right?

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z 156 Hours


18Z 156 Hours

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z


18Z


EDIT: Meant to post the 500mb

[gatorcane]

big changes to the forecast track at 5 am seem likely given the new GFS and its westward shift....

[SouthFLTropics]

big changes to the forecast track at 5 am seem likely given the new GFS and its westward shift....

I wouldn't expect too big of a change. Maybe a westward shift of the track but still showing it curving North in the end. I'm not quite ready to go against the models right now. They are all too much in agreement of this thing turning to the North, which I believe this system will do. The big question will be as to when that turn begins. I still cannot see this system making it all the way to be a threat to us in Florida. MAYBE the Carolinas but not Florida. I hope I don't eat crow on that!!!

SouthFLTropics

[gatorcane]

big changes to the forecast track at 5 am seem likely given the new GFS and its westward shift....

I wouldn't expect too big of a change. Maybe a westward shift of the track but still showing it curving North in the end. I'm not quite ready to go against the models right now. They are all too much in agreement of this thing turning to the North, which I believe this system will do. The big question will be as to when that turn begins. I still cannot see this system making it all the way to be a threat to us in Florida. MAYBE the Carolinas but not Florida. I hope I don't eat crow on that!!!

SouthFLTropics

The models are initializing off some bogus data - you and others are basing the turn off all of the models which were dead wrong on Ernesto mind you. Florence is very disorganized and the center maybe in the blob that is on the SW side....things are going to change alot until Florence is more well-defined.....

again the models have problem with ill-defined systems like Florence....

[MWatkins]

To me the big news from the GFS is the stall. This is a huge difference from the 12Z run..which had Flo quietly recurving out to sea...

The stall may very be an indicator that changes are happening up stream that may not let this thing just get out to sea.

MW

[gatorcane]

To me the big news from the GFS is the stall. This is a huge difference from the 12Z run..which had Flo quietly recurving out to sea...

The stall may very be an indicator that changes are happening up stream that may not let this thing just get out to sea.

MW

Thanks Mike - just great - but 2006 has been the season of unpredictable storms

[Windy]

If this turns out to be the Long Island storm that Accuweather was dooming and glooming about at the beginning of the year, I'm going to eat my hat or something.

[SouthFLTropics]

To me the big news from the GFS is the stall. This is a huge difference from the 12Z run..which had Flo quietly recurving out to sea...

The stall may very be an indicator that changes are happening up stream that may not let this thing just get out to sea.

MW

That is a good point Mike. I'm not one to never say never. I learned after Jeanne that until it is in the North Atlantic you shouldn't write it off. If this thing stalls I'd hate to think that she could pull a Jeanne loop de loop and come back west. I guess we'll have to wait and see. The only thing for sure here is that we have a very interesting setup and a very interesting few days ahead. Thanks for the insight...I always respect your opinion and i had the pleasure of meeting you and Mark at the Treasure Coast Mall about a year ago at Hurricanetrack.com's booth during the annual hurricane preparedness expo. BTW, have you been able to get together with Mark yet this year and chase anything? I know there hasn't been much to chase.

[SouthFLTropics]

big changes to the forecast track at 5 am seem likely given the new GFS and its westward shift....

I wouldn't expect too big of a change. Maybe a westward shift of the track but still showing it curving North in the end. I'm not quite ready to go against the models right now. They are all too much in agreement of this thing turning to the North, which I believe this system will do. The big question will be as to when that turn begins. I still cannot see this system making it all the way to be a threat to us in Florida. MAYBE the Carolinas but not Florida. I hope I don't eat crow on that!!!

SouthFLTropics

The models are initializing off some bogus data - you and others are basing the turn off all of the models which were dead wrong on Ernesto mind you. Florence is very disorganized and the center maybe in the blob that is on the SW side....things are going to change alot until Florence is more well-defined.....

again the models have problem with ill-defined systems like Florence....

I'll go along with you on this one Gatorcane...you bring up some valid points but right now those models are in pretty good agreement of some sort of turn to the North which most certainly will happen at some point in time. I don't see this thing going all the way to EPAC. So to make myself more clear, at this point in time I don't see it making it all the way to Florida but stranger things have happened. For now, since it is so far away I'll buy into the models for tonight and see what materializes tomorrow. I will agree with you though on the fact that many things will change and take place in the days to come! It should be an interesting few days ahead and this is gonna be a very good storm to track. If last year was the year of numerous and intense storms then this year is the year of the puzzling storms!!

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z CMC 144 Hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

00Z GFS 144 Hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

MM5 FSU 00Z 120 Hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr

00Z UKMET 144 Hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

00Z NOGAPS 144 Hours
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... lantic.gif

FOR CRAPS AND GIGGLES:
00Z NAM 84 Hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[superfly]

GFS 00Z shows Florence missing the shortwave and moving west with a building high at 144h.

[Ground_Zero_92]

The GFS is slowly trending a little more west with every run now. I forgot who always used to say "follow the trend". That being said and the stall the GFS is now projecting does, as Mike said, show that a change may be coming. Could Florence get hung up in low steering currents and a favorable environment for strengthening? Could the projected ridge become stronger than forecast at that point and keep her moving more west? Too early to call. But remember the models have had a tendency to underestimate ridges a lot.

I think everyone on the east coast needs to watch this closely. If the west trend continues, and a stall is followed by a stronger ridge, someone from Bermuda or the east CON-US coast could get a visit by Florence next week.

That said, I don't think the risk is high for Florida as it is for the Carolinas and points north. However i don't like the "FL" in Florence's name.

[Meso]

The 06z run is looking more like yesterdays 18z than the 00z

[cinlfla]

delete

[Meso]

GFS 06z Model Run

[Windtalker1]

GFS 06z Model Run

Sorry, Don't buy it...How is this Storm going to break down that High from the NW merging with the High in the Atlantic?

[cycloneye]

386
WHXX04 KWBC 061135
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE 06L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.9 49.8 295./11.1
6 18.1 50.5 284./ 6.9
12 18.7 51.3 307./ 9.8
18 19.5 51.7 338./ 8.3
24 20.5 52.5 320./12.2
30 21.6 53.8 309./17.2
36 22.3 55.2 298./14.6
42 22.9 56.8 290./15.8
48 23.5 58.3 291./14.7
54 24.1 59.7 293./14.7
60 24.7 61.2 292./15.0
66 25.2 62.5 290./12.1
72 25.6 63.6 293./10.9
78 26.3 64.5 304./10.6
84 27.1 65.4 314./11.3
90 27.9 65.9 328./ 9.6
96 28.8 66.3 338./ 9.6
102 29.7 66.5 345./ 8.7
108 30.7 66.4 7./10.5
114 31.9 66.1 12./12.2
120 33.3 65.9 8./13.4
126 34.7 65.7 10./14.0

6z GFDL has a big roadblock at 65w.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060906 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060906 1200 060907 0000 060907 1200 060908 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 50.6W 19.6N 52.5W 20.9N 54.5W 22.1N 56.8W
BAMM 18.3N 50.6W 19.2N 52.5W 20.2N 54.4W 21.4N 56.4W
A98E 18.3N 50.6W 19.1N 52.6W 20.3N 54.6W 21.8N 56.8W
LBAR 18.3N 50.6W 19.4N 52.5W 20.5N 54.7W 21.7N 57.0W
SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 59KTS 67KTS
DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 59KTS 67KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060908 1200 060909 1200 060910 1200 060911 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.4N 59.3W 25.7N 63.9W 28.3N 67.2W 30.7N 68.6W
BAMM 22.5N 58.4W 25.3N 62.7W 28.2N 66.5W 30.5N 68.1W
A98E 23.4N 59.3W 26.4N 64.3W 29.0N 67.1W 32.0N 66.8W
LBAR 22.6N 59.6W 24.5N 64.7W 27.0N 67.9W 29.6N 68.8W
SHIP 75KTS 87KTS 94KTS 97KTS
DSHP 75KTS 87KTS 94KTS 97KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 50.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 17.7N LONM12 = 48.7W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 46.8W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 250NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 100NM


A little more stronger 50 mph.