TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

#381 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:05 am

im not liking the new models! more westward! http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

Josephine96 · #382 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:07 am

I'm wondering why the models haven't shifted yet.. But more importantly.. This thing does appear to still be moving more west than north..

Of course.. I could be wrong.

#383 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:07 am

...and they're still almost all incorrect. They all show more of a northwest current motion when we all know that's not currently taking place.

Josephine96 · #384 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:08 am

Maybe the NHC'ers are asleep or something.. I have no clue.. I'm still trying to figure out they have it moving WNW..

KWT · #385 Postby **KWT** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:10 am

They probably think the same as Wxman57, in that there coulfd be several vorticies in the large circulation and that the overall broad circulation is moving WNW while the seperate features are travelling in slightly different directions.

Stratosphere747 · #386 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:11 am

Ding Ding Ding.....

We have a winner....

shaggy · #387 Postby **shaggy** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:12 am

some of the models still show a high building off the NE coast but all vary on size and strength of that high and i think thats going to be a big player in whether a full recurve occurs a stall out inbetween Bermuda and the US.Right now i am feeling slightly more at ease but i suspect that there will be some variations in the models the next few days!

Of one other note i saw that the 11pm postion last night was 17.7N and at 5am it was 18.4N but the cloud swirl that APPEARS to be the center is nowhere near that position but seems to be almost WSW Along with the overlay of the tropical storm position the center is going to miss the 12 hour forecast plot to the south by a decent amount.You'll have to excuse me if this is a wrong read on my part i am just getting off the graveyard shift!

#388 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:13 am

06/1145 UTC 18.0N 50.6W T2.5/2.5 FLORENCE -- Atlantic Ocean

Here is the center right now.

Josephine96 · #389 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:13 am

forgive me if I'm wrong.. but those "new models" look like their the same from last night..

If I'm wrong.. I apologize.. I think I'm still 1/2 asleep :lol:

#390 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:14 am

Josephine96 wrote:forgive me if I'm wrong.. but those "new models" look like their the same from last night..

If I'm wrong.. I apologize.. I think I'm still 1/2 asleep

They're correct. Look at the time stamps...all 06z and 00z models. The 12z should be out any minute.

shaggy · #391 Postby **shaggy** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:15 am

cycloneye wrote: 06/1145 UTC 18.0N 50.6W T2.5/2.5 FLORENCE -- Atlantic Ocean

Here is the center right now.

if thats the case luis then florence has moved slightly S of due west for a short time

#392 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:21 am

Don't have the 12Z models in yet, but the 6Z models are in strong agreement on recurvature and a track just west of Bermuda. ECMWF is in agreement, too:

Josephine96 · #393 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:22 am

Ok.. so I am still 1/2 asleep then..

Stratosphere747 · #394 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:23 am

Glad you posted that map 57. Not sure where everyone was getting these model movements to the west...

#395 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:25 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:Glad you posted that map 57. Not sure where everyone was getting these model movements to the west...

It's the 06z tropical models that moved west. Plus, all those models in the map are already incorrect since they're all showing a more current northwest motion which everyone knows is not happening right now.

#396 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:25 am

If it keep moving west we will have something to worry about. But right now I think we are okay. but wait a few days and see

#397 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:27 am

skysummit wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Glad you posted that map 57. Not sure where everyone was getting these model movements to the west...

It's the 06z tropical models that moved west. Plus, all those models in the map are already incorrect since they're all showing a more current northwest motion which everyone knows is not happening right now.

You can't use the BAM models on a system moving out of the deep tropics. They are generally pretty bad for a situation like this.

Stratosphere747 · #398 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:29 am

skysummit wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Glad you posted that map 57. Not sure where everyone was getting these model movements to the west...

It's the 06z tropical models that moved west. Plus, all those models in the map are already incorrect since they're all showing a more current northwest motion which everyone knows is not happening right now.

??

These are all 6z

Only the very few you posted show a turn west...

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/op ... tracks.png

cinlfla · #399 Postby **cinlfla** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:29 am

wxman57 wrote:
skysummit wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Glad you posted that map 57. Not sure where everyone was getting these model movements to the west...

It's the 06z tropical models that moved west. Plus, all those models in the map are already incorrect since they're all showing a more current northwest motion which everyone knows is not happening right now.

You can't use the BAM models on a system moving out of the deep tropics. They are generally pretty bad for a situation like this.

Yes but what about the fact that those models have the storm moving more to the nw and in fact the storm is still moving more to the w does that not make them invalid.

KWT · #400 Postby **KWT** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:31 am

It doesn't ake the models invalid, simply that the curver may occur a couple of degrees further west then they expect, still the same general idea but prehaps just slightly too far east.

TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

Who is online