TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[skysummit]

Glad you posted that map 57. Not sure where everyone was getting these model movements to the west...

It's the 06z tropical models that moved west. Plus, all those models in the map are already incorrect since they're all showing a more current northwest motion which everyone knows is not happening right now.

Glad you posted that map 57. Not sure where everyone was getting these model movements to the west...

It's the 06z tropical models that moved west. Plus, all those models in the map are already incorrect since they're all showing a more current northwest motion which everyone knows is not happening right now.

??

These are all 6z

Only the very few you posted show a turn west...

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/op ... tracks.png

Yea....and the ones I posted are the tropical models. Those are the ones people are talking about. I know, wxman57, that you shouldn't use the BAMs with a system moving out of the deep tropics. I was just pointing out which models people are talking about moving west.

[boca]

According to the 6z Florence will only be a threat to Bermuda not the states even though the storm is moving almost due west and the 06Z initialization is already off the mark.

[cinlfla]

It doesn't ake the models invalid, simply that the curver may occur a couple of degrees further west then they expect, still the same general idea but prehaps just slightly too far east.

Heres my concern there are Islands out ahead of this storm, if you will pull up the Visable Loop the center looks to be diving a little to the south when according to those mdels it should right now at this point be pulling NW and its not this is the center 18.On that I'm tracking.

[boca]

It doesn't ake the models invalid, simply that the curver may occur a couple of degrees further west then they expect, still the same general idea but prehaps just slightly too far east.

Heres my concern there are Islands out ahead of this storm, if you will pull up the Visable Loop the center looks to be diving a little to the south when according to those mdels it should right now at this point be pulling NW and its not this is the center 18.On that I'm tracking.

Which islands are you referring too the only island in its path is Bermuda and Florence would have to travel 10 degrees west to be a threat to the Caribbean islands.

[cinlfla]

It doesn't ake the models invalid, simply that the curver may occur a couple of degrees further west then they expect, still the same general idea but prehaps just slightly too far east.

Heres my concern there are Islands out ahead of this storm, if you will pull up the Visable Loop the center looks to be diving a little to the south when according to those mdels it should right now at this point be pulling NW and its not this is the center 18.On that I'm tracking.

Which islands are you referring too the only island in its path is Bermuda and Florence would have to travel 10 degrees west to be a threat to the Caribbean islands.

Look to the southwest are those the leeward Islands I'm probably not spelling it right but you know what I'm talking about. If this storm continues to move, wobble, whatever its doing to the west or south any it looks to me that those Islands should have some concern

[boca]

Cinlfla here's the visible loop and the whole mass is moving WNW due to the upper low but the center towards the SW is hard to see what direction is going in.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Thunder44]

The storm seems to be under upper-level westerly shear of 15kt to 20kts, that's being caused by the ULL to the WNW:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

This will cause the storm to remain weak for now, and the LLC will probably be steered with the low-level flow to the west for awhile. While the MLC to the NW under the convection goes more WNW. As long as this shear continues it will probably keep going west. This will probably shift the track further south and west then most models are showing.

[Damar91]

Good Morning all, Honestly I thought some things would be cleared up by this morning. It seems that they are as uncertain as last night. Should be an interesting next couple of days.

[Josephine96]

well.. I'll be waiting for the shifts..

[Damar91]

Ya know, after looking at the latest sat. images, it really doesn't look like she is moving at all. Now that could be a problem, for if she slows down or stops, she could miss the trough all together. Seems like that has happened before recently.

[Josephine96]

lets not start bringing up stalls now

[Thunder44]

Ya know, after looking at the latest sat. images, it really doesn't look like she is moving at all. Now that could be a problem, for if she slows down or stops, she could miss the trough all together. Seems like that has happened before recently.

She doesn't seem to moved much further west in the last couple hours. But I'm starting to see more convection fire around the center, so the shear may decreasing some and it may resume a WNW movement soon.

[skysummit]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060906 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060906 1200 060907 0000 060907 1200 060908 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 50.6W 19.6N 52.5W 20.9N 54.5W 22.1N 56.8W
BAMM 18.3N 50.6W 19.2N 52.5W 20.2N 54.4W 21.4N 56.4W
A98E 18.3N 50.6W 19.1N 52.6W 20.3N 54.6W 21.8N 56.8W
LBAR 18.3N 50.6W 19.4N 52.5W 20.5N 54.7W 21.7N 57.0W
SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 59KTS 67KTS
DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 59KTS 67KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060908 1200 060909 1200 060910 1200 060911 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.4N 59.3W 25.7N 63.9W 28.3N 67.2W 30.7N 68.6W
BAMM 22.5N 58.4W 25.3N 62.7W 28.2N 66.5W 30.5N 68.1W
A98E 23.4N 59.3W 26.4N 64.3W 29.0N 67.1W 32.0N 66.8W
LBAR 22.6N 59.6W 24.5N 64.7W 27.0N 67.9W 29.6N 68.8W
SHIP 75KTS 87KTS 94KTS 97KTS
DSHP 75KTS 87KTS 94KTS 97KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 50.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 17.7N LONM12 = 48.7W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 46.8W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 250NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 100NM

$$

[teal61]

Lokks pretty much stationary.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... m8vis.html

[storms in NC]

JIMO it is south of the track. Does any one see that? I just ran a Vloop with track on and you can see it is south of it

[Rainband]

Actually the convection is e and ne of the "center". As for the shear it once again seems to depend on the ULL to the west.

[wxman57]

I have it crossing 20N near 57.5W in 36 hours. That's about 100-120 miles southwest of the NHC track. Should keep the squalls and TS force winds NE of the Caribbean, though, as it passes nearly 300 miles away. Have it recurving between 67-68W and passing west of Bermuca in 5 1/2 days.

[Thunder44]

12z model plot

18.3N 50.6W 290 degrees is still west, but just as about as close to WNW as you can get.

Winds are up 45kts.

[Damar91]

Just a dumb question from a rookie; aren't the cloud movements ahead of the system an indicator of which direction the storm is headed?

[boca]

Does everyone remember the early stages of Ernesto when all the models had the storm moving thru the Yucactan channel towards the upper Texas coast then all the models shifted east towards Florida. Point I'm making is that all the models show recurevature doesn't mean it can't recurve off are coastline or just continie moving west and defy all the models.