TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm having fun reading some of the posts so far.

"OH PLEASE PLEASE DROP THE UNANIMOUS MODEL CONSENSUS AND COME UP MY DOORSTEP!!"


I'm just kidding everything this far out is hard to guess at. But generally The NHC is very good at forecasting recurvature and if all model guidance supports the same idea, it's almost good to take it to Vegas.

Of course Center reformations and the like change a storm's path...alot of water for this to travel and who knows, maybe even another surprise ULL will pop up and shear this girl to death.


But in all seriousness I think everyone living on the East Coast of Florida can pretty much rest easy at this point. The probabilities of landfall for them are rather dismal, and probably gonna stay that way.

(But just in case, remember I said probably)

[Damar91]

Does everyone remember the early stages of Ernesto when all the models had the storm moving thru the Yucactan channel towards the upper Texas coast then all the models shifted east towards Florida. Point I'm making is that all the models show recurevature doesn't mean it can't recurve off are coastline or just continie moving west and defy all the models.

Very true boca, with little exception, after Ernesto, I don't give much credence in those models. Let's just wait and see.

[bucman1]

How far west do you think models will shift?

[skysummit]

Does everyone remember the early stages of Ernesto when all the models had the storm moving thru the Yucactan channel towards the upper Texas coast then all the models shifted east towards Florida. Point I'm making is that all the models show recurevature doesn't mean it can't recurve off are coastline or just continie moving west and defy all the models.

Yea, but people rely way too much on model guidance. Uh Oh....now I'm going to get slammed with "yea, but this is a totally different scenario".

[Damar91]

How far west do you think models will shift?

Don't think they will shift at all unless she keeps moving west as she is doing right now.

[cinlfla]

I agree with the other poster it does look stationary now, or else its crawling to the west. Was this forecasted by the models? I don't remember seeing anything that showed a stall. If thats whats happaning.

[boca]

Does everyone remember the early stages of Ernesto when all the models had the storm moving thru the Yucactan channel towards the upper Texas coast then all the models shifted east towards Florida. Point I'm making is that all the models show recurevature doesn't mean it can't recurve off are coastline or just continie moving west and defy all the models.

Yea, but people rely way too much on model guidance. Uh Oh....now I'm going to get slammed with "yea, but this is a totally different scenario".

I think Florence will be a bit easier to forecast then Ernesto due to no land and mountainous land interaction.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060906 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060906 1200 060907 0000 060907 1200 060908 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 50.6W 19.6N 52.5W 20.9N 54.5W 22.1N 56.8W
BAMM 18.3N 50.6W 19.2N 52.5W 20.2N 54.4W 21.4N 56.4W
A98E 18.3N 50.6W 19.1N 52.6W 20.3N 54.6W 21.8N 56.8W
LBAR 18.3N 50.6W 19.4N 52.5W 20.5N 54.7W 21.7N 57.0W
SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 59KTS 67KTS
DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 59KTS 67KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060908 1200 060909 1200 060910 1200 060911 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.4N 59.3W 25.7N 63.9W 28.3N 67.2W 30.7N 68.6W
BAMM 22.5N 58.4W 25.3N 62.7W 28.2N 66.5W 30.5N 68.1W
A98E 23.4N 59.3W 26.4N 64.3W 29.0N 67.1W 32.0N 66.8W
LBAR 22.6N 59.6W 24.5N 64.7W 27.0N 67.9W 29.6N 68.8W
SHIP 75KTS 87KTS 94KTS 97KTS
DSHP 75KTS 87KTS 94KTS 97KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 50.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 17.7N LONM12 = 48.7W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 46.8W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 250NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 100NM

A little more stronger,45kts.This run has it moving at 290 degrees.

[carve]

Just a dumb question from a rookie; aren't the cloud movements ahead of the system an indicator of which direction the storm is headed?

Thats what i thought...and they seem to be moving west and sw

[Zardoz]

It's tough to get a read, but there appears now to be some movement north indicated on this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html

[Damar91]

Well, according to those runs, it has Florence at 19.6 North in 12 hours. That would be a big jump North from where it is now. Something is not Kosher. (As my Grandmother always used to say)

[carve]

?..If it is stalling,and i say if....would that not give the ridge out of canada time to build thus pushing florence west and maybe a bit south?

[boca]

If it is stationary or just crawling that trough along the east coast wil continue lifting out on its merry way and all the models will be wrong because their basis is on that trough causing the recurvature.

[Damar91]

It's tough to get a read, but there appears now to be some movement north indicated on this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html

IMO. What you are seeing is the convection being sheared to the north, not the actual center.

[skysummit]

The tropical models are back with the rest of the crew....

[carve]

If it is stationary or just crawling that trough along the east coast wil continue lifting out on its merry way and all the models will be wrong because their basis is on that trough causing the recurvature.

Thanks

[jpigott]

could it be that LLC we see out in front of the main convective mass is just a vorticy? It appears to go SE in the last few frames. If this ultimately turns out to be the LLC and Florence continues to experience trouble stacking, then won't this travel further west what is currently being depicted by the models?

[carve]

Is the trough continuing to lift out as we speak..or is florence being influenced by this?

[Damar91]

If it is stationary or just crawling that trough along the east coast wil continue lifting out on its merry way and all the models will be wrong because their basis is on that trough causing the recurvature.

Yeah, and that trough is about to exit the east coast. Who will get there first?............

[boca]

I have to go to work so lets see if the models change by this evening.