TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

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skysummit
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#441 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:36 am

boca wrote:I have to go to work so lets see if the models change by this evening.


So what...do we have to wait for you to get back from work to continue discussion Florence? :lol:
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#442 Postby boca » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:37 am

Yes you do skysummit. :lol:
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#443 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:39 am

12z model position may be a little too far north. Probably closer to 18.0N. Unless that center is really just a vortex spinning around the main center further N:

Image
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#444 Postby Starburst » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:41 am

Florence is just barely drifting it appears

2006090606 40 18.1 -49.8 Tropical Storm
2006090609 40 18.4 -50.2 Tropical Storm
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#445 Postby storms in NC » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:41 am

Thunder44 wrote:12z model position may be a little too far north. Probably closer to 18.0N. Unless that center is really just a vortex:

Image
You know that could be true. Just keep a eye on it and maybe we can see if it is or not.
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#446 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:43 am

If that naked vortex is the true center, check out the new little flare up on the northern edge of it. Plus, those t-storms to the northwest look like they're trying really hard to continue to wrap, but they're having a difficult time doing so.
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#447 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:45 am

center is bit to the left of the NHC guidance...
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#448 Postby Steve H. » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:46 am

Of course the "naked vortex" is the center. Its being sheared from the SW. How can anyone possibly think anything else :roll:
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#449 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:47 am

Steve H. wrote:Of course the "naked vortex" is the center. Its being sheared from the SW. How can anyone possibly think anything else :roll:
\

Hey...here's a question....why do you have to be so freakin' rude?
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nws melbourne disco...

#450 Postby mel38 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:48 am

SAT-TUE...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SE AND WL PROVIDE AIRMASS DRYING
FOR THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY BEYOND. POP COVERAGE WL DIMINISH TO ISOLD
WITH LOW END SCT INLAND BY SAT WITH ISOLD COVERAGE BY SUN AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK DUE TO ONSET OF NE FLOW. THIS PATTERN WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN WITH IMPINGING HEIGHT RISES UPSTREAM WL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A
[b]LONGER TERM EVENT AS TC FLORENCE APCHS THE WRN ATLC BASIN. UNCERTAIN
TRACK CONTINUES AS LATEST GFS TRENDING MORE WEST WITH SYS.[/b]
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#451 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:48 am

its quite obvious that many people on here only track if it will impact land. As this looks like a fish I don't see many people on here. If that cone pointed at Florida this board would be slammed.
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#452 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:49 am

Let's see what happens when the 11AM comes out. If the storm is not at the latitude of the next forecast then we know that this one is taking the southern periphery of the track/guidance. The models have continually showed the weakness and eventual turn to the NW and then to the North. I find it hard to go against models in the long term that have repeated the same scenario over and over again. GFS 00Z showed a little farther west movement but, it has since corrected in the 06Z run.

We'll have to wait to see the evolution of the Ridge/Trough/Flo Intesity/ULL in order to get a better fix on the eventual track. IMO at this point we have not seen the evolution of such and should wait for the synoptics to take place to make that call to the north. Remember don't concentrate so much on the 4 & 5 days.
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#453 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:50 am

gatorcane wrote:its quite obvious that many people on here only track if it will impact land. As this looks like a fish I don't see many people on here. If that cone pointed at Florida this board would be slammed.


I think it's has more to do with it being still early in day, that's it's still a weak TS and way out in the Atlantic, that people are just no so concerned about it yet. I actually think they are plenty people here already, considering those factors.
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#454 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:54 am

gatorcane wrote:its quite obvious that many people on here only track if it will impact land. As this looks like a fish I don't see many people on here. If that cone pointed at Florida this board would be slammed.


I think for being wednesday morning a good crowd is in hand.

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But if Florence does something not expected you will see the attendance go dramaticly up.
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#455 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:57 am

Here are the previous advisory points...

21 GMT 09/03/06 14.6N 40.4W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 09/04/06 14.8N 40.4W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 09/04/06 15.6N 41.1W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 09/04/06 16.3N 42.7W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 09/04/06 16.9N 43.8W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 09/05/06 17.3N 44.8W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 09/05/06 17.7N 45.9W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 09/05/06 17.3N 47.3W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/05/06 17.4N 48.5W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/06/06 17.7N 49.5W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/06/06 18.4N 50.2W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
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#456 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:58 am

skysummit wrote:
boca wrote:I have to go to work so lets see if the models change by this evening.


So what...do we have to wait for you to get back from work to continue discussion Florence? :lol:



no we just have to wait for boca to release a forecast and then we will really know what is happening, until then we are in the dark. :D
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#457 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:00 am

Without being rude - it would be impossible to have any other center so close to the obvious one you are seeing in basic meteorology. So persons asking if that is the center are asking something that should already be understood.

Next, we are looking at a probable major here once it gets co-located because Florence shot a good solid core of black IR last night while displaced. That is a sure sign of strong energy waiting to get going. Also, today's diurnal pulse still has a prominent main convection area meaning this isn't losing much even during its minima.

Although all models and TWC charts continue to push this into off-coast recurve the actual surface center itself continues to crawl directly due west and towards the north shore of the islands. I expect it will recurve and official sources are just saying so in advance to project calm for people fearful of a Hugo-type track. But right now it is creeping due west.

I think we have found 2006's "sweet spot" here to the NE of the Antilles. (Similar to 2003)
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#458 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:04 am

cycloneye wrote:
gatorcane wrote:its quite obvious that many people on here only track if it will impact land. As this looks like a fish I don't see many people on here. If that cone pointed at Florida this board would be slammed.


I think for being wednesday morning a good crowd is in hand.

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But if Florence does something not expected you will see the attendance go dramaticly up.


interesting statistics, I think you are right if Florence does the unexpected. :eek:
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#459 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:07 am

At least if she decided to miss the connection with the trough, and her direction shifts to be an east coast threat afterall, it isn't Labor Day Weekend so folks will still be watching the news now and then and won't be caught completely off guard!

Personally, I think this will be a Carolina threat. And if it doesn't curve into Cape Fear and then head out through VA into the Atlantic, it will be a "missed the connection" scenario and then ... look out central to northern coast of Florida.
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#460 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:10 am

If she is stalling right now, or has drasticly decreased forward speed, could the following system "catch up?" and combine with her?
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