TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[Lindaloo]

Okay folks, let's not get into the snide and rude comments. And please do not bash the good folks of Florida. They come here for information like everyone else. Don't make a darn where it goes, the same applies to everyone, myself included.

[storms in NC]

Promets I need some help here. If you look at the Vloop you can see that the east side of Florence is being separated from the center. Looks like it is try to do some raping around the center. Am I seeing things wrong? trying to learn sorry if a dumb question.
Here is the loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[caribepr]

Although all models and TWC charts continue to push this into off-coast recurve the actual surface center itself continues to crawl directly due west and towards the north shore of the islands. I expect it will recurve and official sources are just saying so in advance to project calm for people fearful of a Hugo-type track. But right now it is creeping due west.

I think we have found 2006's "sweet spot" here to the NE of the Antilles. (Similar to 2003)

Well, since I am not an expert and don't even play one on tv, only someone watching the position of this storm from a selfish point of view...it seems to have not gone due west, but is creeping north...as the stated position is now 18.4 and yesterday it was hanging around 17.7 or so...which for ME makes a LOT of difference while it is making its way along. It could dip again, it could flip, it could do lots of things but those tiny little increments north sound good to me

[gatorcane]

looks like convection on the NE side is starting to warm (cloud tops) and the SW side is picking up some steam, again I really hope the center does not end up on teh SW side.

[theworld]

Certainly appears to be relocation to SW w/covec building.

looks like convection on the NE side is starting to warm (cloud tops) and the SW side is picking up some steam, again I really hope the center does not end up on teh SW side.

[terstorm1012]

If she is stalling right now, or has drasticly decreased forward speed, could the following system "catch up?" and combine with her?

I think that's possible...and that might be why the models were making Florence so big yesterday. Just a thought.

[Sanibel]

Just came back from the WV loops. - This one is going to recurve - no doubt about it - so save any "This will miss the connection etc" posts. The trough over CONUS is huge and fall-like. It will most certainly kick Florence away and out to sea like a World Cup 30 meter shot on goal.


The reason Florence is sheared is because a ULL is right on top of its WNW quadrant.

I think 91L behind Florence will wipe out and be absorbed (or "combine" - yes).

[Evil Jeremy]

it doesnt look like it has a WNW movement! more like west to me.

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 061430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 06 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-099

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLY BEGIN 12 HOURLY FIXES
NEAR 23.5N 60.5W AT 08/1800Z.

Recon will start to fly towards Florence on thursday afternoon.

[MiamiensisWx]

Looking closely at the LLC movement on this loop, the movement still does not seem to be quite truly west-northwest, though it is very close and is moving just north of due west, in my opinion (between due west and due west-northwest). This is from looking at the mean LLC rotation at the lower levels.

[Brent]

This is defintely a recurving storm to me as well.

[Thunder44]

NOUS42 KNHC 061430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 06 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-099

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLY BEGIN 12 HOURLY FIXES
NEAR 23.5N 60.5W AT 08/1800Z.

Recon will start to fly towards Florence on thursday afternoon.

That's Friday Afternoon.

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 061430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 06 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-099

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLY BEGIN 12 HOURLY FIXES
NEAR 23.5N 60.5W AT 08/1800Z.

Recon will start to fly towards Florence on thursday afternoon.

That's Friday Afternoon.

oops yes.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

-as long as the front clears the coast and enters the atlantic at its southern leg. my concern with the front is that the tail "stalls" and doesn't keep progressing east, but is held back in GA. the trough and the ULL then pull out to the Northeast, leaving the tail end behind to dissipate while the ridges merge behind the vacating trough and the atlantic ridge then shifts back towards the west in its SW corner, essentially closing the door on northerly movement of the system. the system will still be able to gain some latitude, but wouldn't be abel to be shunted to the NE in thsi scenario. It would slowly head wnw to nw until it encountered land.

at thsi time of year, even if a front looks strong, in a few days it may not be so strong along its entire length. the southern ends seem to flatten out and fizzle. later in the fall, they hold firm and clear the CONUS.

[skysummit]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM AST WED SEP 06 2006

...FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST OR ABOUT 800
MILES...1290 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1295 MILES...2090 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...18.3 N...50.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[SouthFloridawx]

-as long as the front clears the coast and enters the atlantic at its southern leg. my concern with the front is that the tail "stalls" and doesn't keep progressing east, but is held back in GA. the trough and the ULL then pull out to the Northeast, leaving the tail end behind to dissipate while the ridges merge behind the vacating trough and the atlantic ridge then shifts back towards the west in its SW corner, essentially closing the door on northerly movement of the system. the system will still be able to gain some latitude, but wouldn't be abel to be shunted to the NE in thsi scenario. It would slowly head wnw to nw until it encountered land.

at thsi time of year, even if a front looks strong, in a few days it may not be so strong along its entire length. the southern ends seem to flatten out and fizzle. later in the fall, they hold firm and clear the CONUS.

I heard someone talking about the exact same scenario that you are mentioning, last night. Stewart was mentioning this as a possibility part of the long range. That the trough may not be strong enough to break down the ridge as much.

[Sanibel]

More likely a large trough like this one creates a strong southerly flow in front of it that pushes the Atlantic ridge east taking all systems north and into the giant weakness. We've already seen this with Ernesto.

[Brent]

[cycloneye]

[WmE]

What a big storm!! TS force winds extend 250 nm form the center!