No Recurvature???

[Robjohn53]

Well the way we in Florida have been getting wacked this year, i would not rule nothing out for florida till that fat lady sings. Seems everything has been coming our way alot this year. So I don't trust anything till it's well past us.. just my 2 cents

[boca]

Nothing is all clear since Ernesto look what that storm did to the models.

[Josephine96]

I even had someone at work today she's got a bad feeling Flo Jo is coming straight 4 us..

She doesn't believe the cold front/trough scenario.. I think she may still be paranoid from 04.. but we'll see..

[Acral]

Good points, we are a long ways out, and history is on our side for a deep sea swimmer... (won't say "fish" yet, as several island combinations could see some action).

To give any U.S. interests an "all clear" at this point would be foolish in my opinion.

[Josephine96]

I still say this heads for the SE Coast from Florida-Carolinas.. I think if she does get picked up by a trough..

She'll be on her way to the Carolinas because she'll be close to the coast already. {just thoughts, please don't take this a forecast thank ya }

[Robjohn53]

From alot that i have read thos far this year with the models and this year being so wierd at times nothing would supprize me at all. And after Enesto,,, seems like anything is possible and to guess anything this far away would be foolish. And we all can use another fish...

[NCWeatherChic]

I still say this heads for the SE Coast from Florida-Carolinas.. I think if she does get picked up by a trough..

She'll be on her way to the Carolinas because she'll be close to the coast already. {just thoughts, please don't take this a forecast thank ya }

While I'm thinkin' FL to SC. I hope she is a fish! I love tracking storms at a distance, but don't want them visiting. Geesh, sounds like my in-laws, nice to chat over the phone long distance, but want it to stay that way! Distance being the key word here

Angela

[TampaSteve]

it sounds like some are given florida the "alls clear" already.

please understand I am not -removed- but thats what it sounds like.

Florida will not be clear until Flo gets North of 30...it's not about attitude, it's about LATITUDE...

[canegrl04]

Flo is a fish

[dixiebreeze]

I would be very surprised if Florence curves as dramatically as the models currently suggest. There's something wrong with this picture.

[sma10]

I would be very surprised if Florence curves as dramatically as the models currently suggest. There's something wrong with this picture.

I would not be surprised if Florence curves as dramatically as the models suggest. There is no strong ridge to keep Florence from turning poleward. There's nothing wrong with this picture at all.

[Frank2]

Let's quote the latest TCD, please:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.
THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE. THIS COULD IMPART
MORE OF A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS INDICATED
BY THE GFDL MODEL...BUT THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS
AS FLORENCE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE MOMENT...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TURN.

Note - the deep-layer trough mentioned has also been mentioned many times by NWS forecasters since Monday, so, apparently this is a significant weather system - thankfully...

Frank

[KWT]

I still think this has a mammoth chance of re-curve but I think it'll probably be between 70-75W before finally turning completely north, i think the ridge won't break down quite as fast as expected.

[bobbutts]

well nobody will remember if you correctly predict a fish, so it is much more likely in the forum environment to predict an EC hit. I'll jump on the bandwagon and call for the big one in NYC!

[Brent]

I would be very surprised if Florence curves as dramatically as the models currently suggest. There's something wrong with this picture.

It's happened many times before.

[Rainband]

I see no reason to doubt the forecast.

[Steve H.]

But They are inserting the doubt. Notice that Franklin says...."At the moment the models are in excellent agreement." How much more ambiguous can you get by inserting that. They are implying that the models don't have a handle on this. If it was Stewart writing this I would understand....but this is Mr. Conservative

[Thunder44]

It's hard to see now how it won't recurve now by looking that latest water vaper loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

You can see a large trough carving out along the east coast and ridge already being eroded over the West Atlantic. The storm would have to stay around where it is now, for about 5 days or so, to wait for the synoptic pattern to change again to allow it move towards the East Coast. Or the ULL to the NW can rip it apart and leave a LLC behind drifting west.

I believe the threat is greatest to Bermuda, than maybe Newfoundland. I think it will steer well clear of the US. It will probably be a large and intense hurricane, so we could see large swells on east coast beaches early next week.

[Steve H.]

That is Not the trough they are putting the weight on in their forecast.

[Frank2]

I agree with rainband and thunder's posts - this trough has been mentioned in many NWS forecast discussions since Monday, so, it's a significant trough, and, as the old saying goes, a trough over Florida is good news, when it comes to helping to steer any hurricane to our east...

Frank