TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

[cycloneye]

imo don sutherland over hipes a lot of things.

Explain why you say that about donsutherland?

[wxman57]

Here's a nice McIDAS image of Florence with 1-deg lat/lon lines. I circled the center in yellow. Doesn't appear to be too much inflow into it. I wouldn't say Florence is strengthening at this point. That upper low to its west is causing a good bit of SW shear:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence14.gif

[TampaFl]

11:00AM position:

[kenl01]

Looks like a big fish coming up with Florence ! At least for the United States !
Looks like climo plus GFS and other models have the right idea of turning this system straight north and out to sea within 96 hrs. It could brush portions of Newfoundland on it's western fringe down the road, but otherwise I don't expect much in the US from Florence. Reminds me of 1981 when most hurricanes turned out to sea.

I'm not surprised given the pattern this year !

[cpdaman]

wxman how could this thing be expected to strenthen at all over the next day, could this shear be strong enough to destory it?

[storms in NC]

I will try later to fix it

[cycloneye]

Bermuda Public Forecast
Issued at 11:30 am - Wednesday, September 06, 2006Headline - Mostly sunny
Public Synopsis - Mainly sunny and dry conditions with just one or two passing showers are expected over the next few days. Tropical Storm Florence should be closely monitored as it may affect our weather this weekend or early next week.

Today - Mostly sunny, a shower possible... Winds southerly light... High near 30°C/86°F.
Tonight - Partly cloudy... Winds southerly light... Low near 23°C/75°F.
Thursday - Mostly sunny... Winds south-southeasterly light... High near 30°C/87°F.
Friday - Mix of sun and cloud with isolated showers... Winds southeasterly light, veering east-southeasterly overnight... Low near 25°C/77°F, high near 30°C/86°F.
Saturday - Sunny breaks with isolated showers... Winds east-southeasterly moderate, increasing moderate to strong overnight... Low near 24°C/76°F, high near 30°C/86°F.
Sunday - Mix of sun and cloud with isolated showers... Winds east-southeasterly moderate to strong, increasing strong... Low near 24°C/76°F, high near 30°C/86°F. Climate data recorded Tuesday, September 05, 2006, at the Bermuda International Airport -
Hours of sunshine: 5.9
Temperatures
Maximum: 30.1°C/86.2°F
Minimum: 25°C/77°F
Sea Surface: 28.2°C/82.8°F
Precipitation
Yesterday: mm/TR"
September to date: 87.9mm/3.46"
Past 30 Days: 188.5mm/7.42"
The next scheduled forecast will be issued at 4:30 pm

- Meteorologist: Declan O'Connell, Observer: Chris Black

http://www.weather.bm/

[Windsurfer_NYC]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1457638#1457638



I recomend the members who are not convinced about Florence being a fish to read what donsutherland has to say in a complete analysis about the future track is concerned.By the way,if Florence affects Bermuda the term "Fish" does not applie.

That's a great analysis by donsutherland, thanks for pointing that out. Wouldn't you say, though, that the 12Z update leans more toward a "landfall" case as outlined by donsutherland, where we see anomalous ridging over the Hudson Bay sliding eastward, as opposed to the "recurve" case which shows deep troughing over Hudson Bay and Eastern Canada?

12Z update --> http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 4_usbg.gif

[Evil Jeremy]

I still think that the track takes Flo more northward then it will actually go.

[wxman57]

wxman how could this thing be expected to strenthen at all over the next day, could this shear be strong enough to destory it?

The shear looks quite strong and increasing on WV loops. Florence looks weaker than it was 12 hours ago, now. Could well get ripped apart if the upper low doesn't weaken and move off as forecast. The low IS moving, but Florence is keeping pace with it. Very good chance that Florrence will be barely hanging onto TS strength by tomorrow morning. I may be lowering my intensity forecast, but I like my more W-WNW track for the next 48 hrs.

[Zardoz]

this is why I think it will miss the troff. But it may just pick it up at the end of it. hard to tell right now.

[img=http://img354.imageshack.us/img354/9824/huvshm7.jpg]

Bad link!

[Stratosphere747]

wxman how could this thing be expected to strenthen at all over the next day, could this shear be strong enough to destory it?

The shear looks quite strong and increasing on WV loops. Florence looks weaker than it was 12 hours ago, now. Could well get ripped apart if the upper low doesn't weaken and move off as forecast. The low IS moving, but Florence is keeping pace with it. Very good chance that Florrence will be barely hanging onto TS strength by tomorrow morning. I may be lowering my intensity forecast, but I like my more W-WNW track for the next 48 hrs.

57...

There are a few other well respected mets out there, that see Flo possibly dissipating or barely hanging on as well...

Sure does look to be struggling right now.

[cpdaman]

ok

[gatorcane]

wxman how could this thing be expected to strenthen at all over the next day, could this shear be strong enough to destory it?

The shear looks quite strong and increasing on WV loops. Florence looks weaker than it was 12 hours ago, now. Could well get ripped apart if the upper low doesn't weaken and move off as forecast. The low IS moving, but Florence is keeping pace with it. Very good chance that Florrence will be barely hanging onto TS strength by tomorrow morning. I may be lowering my intensity forecast, but I like my more W-WNW track for the next 48 hrs.

ah just when you though fish all the way - perhaps it will stay weak and miss the trough. Wouldn't that just be a 2006 moment at its best

[jpigott]

wxman57 - isn't there always the chance that the conditions remain unfavorable long enough that Florence or its remanents keep moving west with the lower level flow, thus allowing Florence to move into the bears trap (70W). The longer Florence stays weak, unstacked, naked swirl, etc. the greater the chance we could see a CONUS landfall?

[Damar91]

wxman how could this thing be expected to strenthen at all over the next day, could this shear be strong enough to destory it?

The shear looks quite strong and increasing on WV loops. Florence looks weaker than it was 12 hours ago, now. Could well get ripped apart if the upper low doesn't weaken and move off as forecast. The low IS moving, but Florence is keeping pace with it. Very good chance that Florrence will be barely hanging onto TS strength by tomorrow morning. I may be lowering my intensity forecast, but I like my more W-WNW track for the next 48 hrs.

Which could through the models out the window, right? Because the models are insisting that Florence strengthens right away.

[Eyewall]

wxman how could this thing be expected to strenthen at all over the next day, could this shear be strong enough to destory it?

The shear looks quite strong and increasing on WV loops. Florence looks weaker than it was 12 hours ago, now. Could well get ripped apart if the upper low doesn't weaken and move off as forecast. The low IS moving, but Florence is keeping pace with it. Very good chance that Florrence will be barely hanging onto TS strength by tomorrow morning. I may be lowering my intensity forecast, but I like my more W-WNW track for the next 48 hrs.

The LLC looks like its falling apart
it looks like its stalling or maybe re-forming to the NE

[x-y-no]

No surprises so far in the 12Z run of the GFS (out through 84 hours).

It's pretty much splittling the difference between the 0Z and 6Z runs.

[cpdaman]

last question WXMAN (i know you are very busy) NHC says

" THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE. THIS COULD IMPART
MORE OF A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS INDICATED
BY THE GFDL MODEL.

i noticed the nhc said could not shoud (wether i am reading into things to much or not) do u see the ULL as much of a stearing influence and if so do u see it as causing a more northerly temp tack or basically what is your take on the ULL as a sterring infuence ( a mute point?)

[gatorcane]

that ULL to the west is a similar setup to Ernesto. Wouldn't surprise me if the center keeps reforming more NE and it curves alot sooner like the GFDL suggests..