No Recurvature???

[Frank2]

More than likely, this afternoon's model runs will indicate this turn even more than earlier model runs...

Frank

P.S. As for Franklin's hedge, well, he's wise when it comes to never saying never in this life...

[CrazyC83]

It's hard to see now how it won't recurve now by looking that latest water vaper loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

You can see a large trough carving out along the east coast and ridge already being eroded over the West Atlantic. The storm would have to stay around where it is now, for about 5 days or so, to wait for the synoptic pattern to change again to allow it move towards the East Coast. Or the ULL to the NW can rip it apart and leave a LLC behind drifting west.

I believe the threat is greatest to Bermuda, than maybe Newfoundland. I think it will steer well clear of the US. It will probably be a large and intense hurricane, so we could see large swells on east coast beaches early next week.

That is what I am thinking too. The CMC models bring a Category 4 hurricane into Newfoundland...is that even possible?

[Thunder44]

That is Not the trough they are putting the weight on in their forecast.

The "deep-layer trough" is forecast by models to remain along the east coast as other shortwaves come down from Canada to reinforce it.

[Frank2]

Yes - in fact, it might be the first genuine cool weather for Florida since late March...

Frank

[gatorcane]

Yes - in fact, it might be the first genuine cool weather for Florida since late March...

Frank

Could be. I am actually predicting the hurricane season will end a bit early this year as the EC troughs have dominated all summer it seems.
could be a colder than normal winter I'm afraid.

[Damar91]

Yes - in fact, it might be the first genuine cool weather for Florida since late March...

Frank

Cool weather in Sept? Lived here all my life and I never remember anything about Florida resembling cool in Sept. I guess there is a first for everything.

[gatorcane]

Yes - in fact, it might be the first genuine cool weather for Florida since late March...

Frank

Cool weather in Sept? Lived here all my life and I never remember anything about Florida resembling cool in Sept. I guess there is a first for everything.

Actually not true. I grew up over in the Tampa area (before coming from New Jersey) and back in the 80s the first cooler air came through by Sept 15th or so - but it seems that lately that doesn't happen anymore (I think it is global warming)

Now in South Florida certainly we usually have to wait until late Oct to really get some cool/pleasant air here.

[Damar91]

Yes - in fact, it might be the first genuine cool weather for Florida since late March...

Frank

Cool weather in Sept? Lived here all my life and I never remember anything about Florida resembling cool in Sept. I guess there is a first for everything.

Actually not true. I grew up over in the Tampa area (before coming from New Jersey) and back in the 80s the first cooler air came through by Sept 15th or so - but it seems that lately that doesn't happen anymore (I think it is global warming)

Now in South Florida certainly we usually have to wait until late Oct to really get some cool/pleasant air here.

I can believe that because Central Florida is always cooler than down here in the fall. Growing up in Davie, it was never cold until maybe Dec.

[gatorcane]

Yes - in fact, it might be the first genuine cool weather for Florida since late March...

Frank

Cool weather in Sept? Lived here all my life and I never remember anything about Florida resembling cool in Sept. I guess there is a first for everything.

Actually not true. I grew up over in the Tampa area (before coming from New Jersey) and back in the 80s the first cooler air came through by Sept 15th or so - but it seems that lately that doesn't happen anymore (I think it is global warming)

Now in South Florida certainly we usually have to wait until late Oct to really get some cool/pleasant air here.

I can believe that because Central Florida is always cooler than down here in the fall. Growing up in Davie, it was never cold until maybe Dec.

its called the Gulf stream! It's the reason whey Palm Beach south to Miami on the East coast is always the warmest part of the state in the winter.

[Damar91]

Yes - in fact, it might be the first genuine cool weather for Florida since late March...

Frank

Cool weather in Sept? Lived here all my life and I never remember anything about Florida resembling cool in Sept. I guess there is a first for everything.

Actually not true. I grew up over in the Tampa area (before coming from New Jersey) and back in the 80s the first cooler air came through by Sept 15th or so - but it seems that lately that doesn't happen anymore (I think it is global warming)

Now in South Florida certainly we usually have to wait until late Oct to really get some cool/pleasant air here.

I can believe that because Central Florida is always cooler than down here in the fall. Growing up in Davie, it was never cold until maybe Dec.

its called the Gulf stream! It's the reason whey Palm Beach south to Miami on the East coast is always the warmest part of the state in the winter.

I know Gator, just trying to make conversation.

[gatorcane]

Yes - in fact, it might be the first genuine cool weather for Florida since late March...

Frank

Cool weather in Sept? Lived here all my life and I never remember anything about Florida resembling cool in Sept. I guess there is a first for everything.

Actually not true. I grew up over in the Tampa area (before coming from New Jersey) and back in the 80s the first cooler air came through by Sept 15th or so - but it seems that lately that doesn't happen anymore (I think it is global warming)

Now in South Florida certainly we usually have to wait until late Oct to really get some cool/pleasant air here.

I can believe that because Central Florida is always cooler than down here in the fall. Growing up in Davie, it was never cold until maybe Dec.

its called the Gulf stream! It's the reason whey Palm Beach south to Miami on the East coast is always the warmest part of the state in the winter.

I know Gator, just trying to make conversation.

Yeah I know.....

[Damar91]

Actually, back in 1989, I was living in Winter Haven, I remember on Christmas Morning, eveything was covered in ice and it was about 13 degrees. That's the coldest I ever remember being in here in Florida.

[Frank2]

I remember that outbreak - we had a high of 45 in Miami on Christmas Day...

Frank

[Frank2]

Not many here would remember when most of Lake and Orange County were nothing but citrus groves - no more, due to the freezes in '83, '86 and '89...

Frank

[hial2]

I remember that outbreak - we had a high of 45 in Miami on Christmas Day...

Frank

Frank, i think that the record high/low? of 45 was set in 1977...The day it snowed in Miami...

[Damar91]

I remember that outbreak - we had a high of 45 in Miami on Christmas Day...

Frank

Frank, i think that the record high/low? of 45 was set in 1977...The day it snowed in Miami...

I remember that day! I was 5 years old, and my Dad called my Mom at home and told her to look outside, that she wouldn't believe what she would see. My Dad still has the clipping from the Herald that day.

[gatorcane]

Christmas of 1989 saw snowfall across much of the Tampa Bay area. Some of this snowfall actually stuck too.

[hial2]

[quote="gatorcane"]Christmas of 1989 saw snowfall across much of the Tampa Bay area. Some of this snowfall actually stuck too.[/quote

That day it got so cold that my dog got stuck to the hydrant..

[gatorcane]

Christmas of 1989 saw snowfall across much of the Tampa Bay area. Some of this snowfall actually stuck too.[/quote

That day it got so cold that my dog got stuck to the hydrant..

Alright maybe we should get back on the topic.

[JonathanBelles]

Christmas of 1989 saw snowfall across much of the Tampa Bay area. Some of this snowfall actually stuck too.

snow again snow again!