Florence--A Whale of a Fish It better be!

[OuterBanker]

No one will want Florence, thank God all the models take her out to sea. This thing is a monster now, could be the first major as a very large hurricane. This thing is so large that if it did approach the US mainland its effect could be felt days in advance. Believe me, no wishcaster would want anything to do with her.

[CrazyC83]

No one will want Florence, thank God all the models take her out to sea. This thing is a monster now, could be the first major as a very large hurricane. This thing is so large that if it did approach the US mainland its effect could be felt days in advance. Believe me, no wonderful forecaster would want anything to do with her.

Forgotten about Bermuda? That lies in the crosshairs of most models...also it could easily be far enough north to hit Atlantic Canada.

[gatorcane]

also it looks like Maine could also be in its path and last time I checked that was in the U.S -

so maybe not a fish afterall.

[Derek Ortt]

the chances of Florence being a fish are becoming close to non existent

Bermuda may very well get cane conditions (TS at least), Canada looks to take a significant landfall, and New England may have TS winds due to the very alrge size of the system then

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

God I hope not. Living here in SW New Brunswick, near the Maine border. I hope Florence stays far away. Last time we had a cat 1 hurricane, as a cat 1, was Gerda back in 1969, almost 37 years ago. Last two cat 2 were Ginny in 1963, and no doubt Enda in 1954. Basically what I'm saying is most people are not use to hurricanes around these parts, and as such it could get ugly.

[CrazyC83]

How about a Category 3 as the CMC model suggests?

[Derek Ortt]

it doesn't suggest a major hurricane

It suggests a broad, spread out storm, that would make Katrina seem small in size. Thus, the pressure gradient would be weaker. My guess it CMC is showing a cat 1 or 2

[gatorcane]

make Katrina seem small in size?

[Derek Ortt]

if the globals are correct, even Wilma at Miami will seem small in size compared to this thing.

The models are depicting an extremely large system in 3-5 days

[cpdaman]

what is the estimation of tropical force or hurricane force distances from center based on interpretation of models

300 ts ?

100 hurricane?

[gatorcane]

Florence is really getting large. She is this huge monster covering the central Atlantic...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

How about a Category 3 as the CMC model suggests?

Last time would be 1869 the "September Gale", also the "Saxby Gale" that same year caused cat. 3 damage in Maine and cat 2 damage in Mass, and thus could have been a cat 3 as well at landfall.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

make Katrina seem small in size?

Ditto

[Meso]

Yeah... It's realling pulling in moisture from everywhere.... Could end up huge

[timeflow]

Just looking at NOGAPS between 120 and 144 hours in the 12Z run, that appears as a very large area with a big pressure gradient getting the squeeze play as the storm pushes right into the heart of the high pressure. Incredible looking...