any possibilities of a Jeanne scenario..?

[SouthFloridawx]

Scratch that... Just went back and read some of the discussions. They orginally thought that Ivan was going to weaken the ridge enough for Jeanne to pull northward. When I say they I mean the models.

[Damar91]

Scratch that... Just went back and read some of the discussions. They orginally thought that Ivan was going to weaken the ridge enough for Jeanne to pull northward. When I say they I mean the models.

You don't happen to have a link for those Jeanne models do you? It would be interesting to compare.

[gatorcane]

I don't see one model that is supporting a Jeanne like scenario. Help me out here in how it could possibly happen.

[SouthFloridawx]

Scratch that... Just went back and read some of the discussions. They orginally thought that Ivan was going to weaken the ridge enough for Jeanne to pull northward. When I say they I mean the models.

You don't happen to have a link for those Jeanne models do you? It would be interesting to compare.

No but, here is the Jeanne archive of advisories and discussions.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/FRANCES.shtml?

Sorry here it is...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/JEANNE.shtml?

[vbhoutex]

What I am not seeing here is a discussion of the synoptics of Floyd vs Florence. That is the key to whether or not a similar situation will develop.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/1999/FLOYD.html

Here is the old Floyd Advisory Archive.

[TampaSteve]

What about...

[SouthFloridawx]

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 08 1999

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA THIS
AFTERNOON ARE NOW 55 KT...45 KT...AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS
STILL NOT MUCH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE BANDS...WHILE
IMPRESSIVE...ARE WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THE FLOPPY
FORM OF FLOYD...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY INCREASED TO 45 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN
THE STORM OVERNIGHT. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS VERY GOOD AND
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE INNER CORE BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED.

THE CENTER IS STILL NOT EASY TO LOCATE...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED AS 290/14. A MIDDLE LEVEL CUTOFF LOW NEAR BERMUDA...ALONG
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP FLOYD NORTH
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE LBAR AND GFDL. THE
BAM MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE KEY PLAYER WILL BE A
MAJOR TROUGH FORECAST TO BE MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.

FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 16.6N 51.7W 45 KTS
12HR VT 09/0600Z 17.4N 53.8W 50 KTS
24HR VT 09/1800Z 18.5N 56.1W 60 KTS
36HR VT 10/0600Z 19.5N 57.9W 70 KTS
48HR VT 10/1800Z 20.5N 59.5W 80 KTS
72HR VT 11/1800Z 22.0N 61.5W 90 KTS


NNNN

[gatorcane]

wow seems identical to this situation doesn't it.

[alan1961]

Nothing about Flo resembles Jeanne...She was a low tracker over PR..Got ruined by DR and then hung around for days before she came back west..

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7845030

I dont think we'll see flo jo doing a jeanne this time

Does anyone have the atlantic model at the time jeanne was around in september of 2004?

[Stratusxpeye]

Nothing about Flo resembles Jeanne...She was a low tracker over PR..Got ruined by DR and then hung around for days before she came back west..

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7845030

I dont think we'll see flo jo doing a jeanne this time

Does anyone have the atlantic model at the time jeanne was around in september of 2004?

That link says december 6th, 2006? I think MSNBC Needs to correct that

[fci]

While it is an interesting exercise to look at prior storms that "defied the odds"; I think it is merely an interesting walk down memory lane. Not exactly fun memories for many.

However, no prior storms in this position have gone on to hit the East Coast of the U.S.
This one also should not.

I hope that the rest of the season remains like this one where we look at history and learn from the past but merely wave as the storms pass us all by.

[alan1961]

Nothing about Flo resembles Jeanne...She was a low tracker over PR..Got ruined by DR and then hung around for days before she came back west..

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7845030

I dont think we'll see flo jo doing a jeanne this time

Does anyone have the atlantic model at the time jeanne was around in september of 2004?

That link says december 6th, 2006? I think MSNBC Needs to correct that

yes stratus it does..i tried to post the jeanne track for 2004 on it but it went to the current storm which is Florence

[cpdaman]

i bet floyd never had a pesky ull to deal with

[Blown Away]

With Floyd the previous discussions were implying out to sea, this was the breakpoint when they hinted possible W movement towards SFL.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/1999/di ... 9.010.html

[huricanwatcher]

and FLO is too far out to guarantee anything... the ridge may break and we are in deep doo doo once again .