Florence (Forecast 10 Posted); extratropical in 2-3 days

[ncweatherwizard]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.


From Nencweather.com

Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable always first consult
and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This
forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional
source of information except nencweather.com.

Forecast 1:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... 6/six.html

The general track idea here seems pretty straightfoward; however, nailing down the forward speed might be a challenge for the first couple of days. Obviously, long term intensity is quite unsure and will depend largely on how the storm fares over the next couple of days with higher shear.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 3:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... 6/six.html

Sorry about not getting around to posting yesterday's forecast--it was a busy day. Anyhow, intensity for this one is more conservative, but given the broad circulation, I imagine it can withstand a bit of shear--enough so that it can regenerate convection if shear subsides in a couple of days.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 4:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... rence.html

Intensification should begin soon; center is becoming better organized and shear is lessened. Possible Bermuda threat.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 5:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... rence.html

Very little change to the forecast; minor downward adjustment on intensity.

Scott

[artist]

always enjoy reading your analysis.

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 6:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... rence.html

The track is faster, and the intensity is bumped down a little more--I must say I don't know why strengthening has not already occurred, but it is evident that banding is just now starting to take shape.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 7:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... rence.html

Bumped back up to Category 3 peak intensity since organization is looking better--in any case, this will be a large and powerful hurricane.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 8:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... rence.html

Internal dynamics are throwing us off here. Looks like the anticyclone that should have helped the storm is actually keeping it from strengthening.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 9:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... rence.html

Hopefully, the worst of the storm will past just west of Bermuda--but if not, it certainly won't be devastating or anything. Still a powerful extratropical cyclone possible for Canadian maritimes, namely Newfoundland.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 10:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... rence.html

Getting some help from southerly and southwesterly flow this morning. Strong shear ahead, but it'll be extratropical in a couple of days.

Scott