CPC Update=Neutral next 1-2 months,Weak El Nino end of 2006

[cycloneye]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... _advisory/

Any comments about this September Update from Climate Prediction Center about ENSO can be posted here.

I know that my friend Jim Hudges will have something to say about this.

[Frank2]

It's hard to deny that we are already in an El Nino period, based on their observations, and, really helps to explain what has happened in the Atlantic this hurricane season...

[LarryWx]

It is my strong belief that the solidly -SOI of this entire summer, associated with the developing El Nino, has been having a significant negative effect on the ferocity (only 1 H and no MH to date) of the current season to date. However, we are still near normal in # of NS. My prediction back in June was for 9/4/2 based on my prediction back then of a developing El Nino.

[canegrl04]

I think 2007 will see a moderate to strong El Nino.I rememeber it was the spring of 1997 when the El Nino really began to intensify,and California began to feel the affects in the fall of that year. 2007 will notbe a good year for cane developement

[AussieMark]

I have posted this image in a few threads now

but check out the subsurface warming ove ther last few months

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/result ... 06/Sep.gif

now compare that to other el nino episodes like

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/result ... 04/Sep.gif
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/result ... 02/Sep.gif

not as bad as 2002 at this point but comparable to 2004

[HurricaneBill]

I think 2007 will see a moderate to strong El Nino.I rememeber it was the spring of 1997 when the El Nino really began to intensify,and California began to feel the affects in the fall of that year. 2007 will notbe a good year for cane developement

All the years ending with a 7 seem to be quiet years.

1957: 6/3/2

1967: 8/6/1

1977: 6/5/1

1987: 6/3/1

1997: 7/3/1

1977 was a rather odd year. Not only was the Atlantic quiet, so was the EPAC and WPAC.

However, it should be noted that all of these years saw a landfalling hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

1957: Audrey

1967: Beulah, Fern

1977: Anita, Babe

1987: Floyd

1997: Danny

[Andrew92]

I think 2007 will see a moderate to strong El Nino.I rememeber it was the spring of 1997 when the El Nino really began to intensify,and California began to feel the affects in the fall of that year. 2007 will notbe a good year for cane developement

All the years ending with a 7 seem to be quiet years.

1957: 6/3/2

1967: 8/6/1

1977: 6/5/1

1987: 6/3/1

1997: 7/3/1

1977 was a rather odd year. Not only was the Atlantic quiet, so was the EPAC and WPAC.

However, it should be noted that all of these years saw a landfalling hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

1957: Audrey

1967: Beulah, Fern

1977: Anita, Babe

1987: Floyd

1997: Danny

But there were 1887 and 1947 too. 1887 was one of the most active years on record, and while 1947 was only a little above average, it was a VERY destructive year for Florida and the Gulf Coast, at least.

I'm gonna wait and see what the El Nino forecasts for 2007 are like. It seems like the El Nino's usually dissipate around the spring, and I think we've got a weak El Nino right now (WAY negative SOI, long-lived Ioke, other strong storms in the EPAC, struggling Atlantic, etc.) Am I wrong in my guess that this El Nino may do the same? Just trying to learn, I'm no expert on El Nino.

-Andrew92