how far west does Flo Jo go b4 the turn?

[Josephine96]

Since she does not "appear" to be a threat to Florida or anybody. here's my question..

How much further west will she go before she curves..?

65? 70? even 75? surprising us and not curving at all?

I wish we'd get a long tracker that would actually make it all the way across the Atlantic.. Flo Jo's actually starting to bore me, She's not a hurricane yet.. She's 99/100 gonna be a fish..

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Can't see her getting past 75 West at the absolute most, unless something changes dramatically in the models (i.e. missing the First Trough for example).

[terstorm1012]

I'd be very surprised to see her even get to 70 west. I anticipate the turn between 65 and 70, based on the trough coming in.

[Josephine96]

I'm thinking she'll curve between 65-70..

[storms in NC]

JIMO
past 75 as she makes her turn.

[cpdaman]

i say she stays weak and slow and makes it to about 68 as a big weak fish

[Windtalker1]

Going out on a limb and say 78 and curves up the coast of FL like an Floyd Track only closer to Florida (let the bashing begin)

[Lowpressure]

I would just say be very careful of a 700 nm wide weak system. It will trend west under this scenario, how far and for how long is the unknown.

[terstorm1012]

good point lowpressure...if i recall correctly ,weaker storms tend to resist the urge to move poleward because they're more shallow, is that right?

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Two things to keep in mind, is that all model guidance and most other forecasts are assuming two things:
First, remember how strong the models had Florence today when they ran three days ago 970mb cat three?

Second, the models almost always have a "poleward bias." Flo is not strong.

. . . She has moved more W with time and is not "officially" past 55W w/o going past 20N. None, or few, of the models anticipated the forming of the invest off the NC coast.

Therefore, I watch the models and all forecasts with skepticism, at this time. That said, and with a front off the EC, she could make it past 65W and not turn N all that much.

I would love to see plot maps of pressures in the Atl. and compare them today as to what was forecast three days ago. Stronger heights might mean stronger ridging than anticipated.

We shall see if the blind are leading the blind.

[SouthFloridawx]

Two things to keep in mind, is that all model guidance and most other forecasts are assuming two things:
First, remember how strong the models had Florence today when they ran three days ago 970mb cat three?

Second, the models almost always have a "poleward bias." Flo is not strong.

. . . She has moved more W with time and is not "officially" past 55W w/o going past 20N. None, or few, of the models anticipated the forming of the invest off the NC coast.

Therefore, I watch the models and all forecasts with skepticism, at this time. That said, and with a front off the EC, she could make it past 65W and not turn N all that much.

I would love to see plot maps of pressures in the Atl. and compare them today as to what was forecast three days ago. Stronger heights might mean stronger ridging than anticipated.

We shall see if the blind are leading the blind.

Just might be able to do that for you...

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=072hr

[quaqualita]

How far West before the turn, seems to be the question for most tropical systems - at least for us here on the north coast of Hispaniola. I just hope that all models and forcasts are right this time and Flo will turn long before 70W - that's where I am .

[sunnyday]

S Fl met said that Flo will be due east of us but 750 miles from our coast.

[Josephine96]

I don't know if I like her getting all the way to 78 before turning If she gets that far.. she may as well just come and visit the state..

[george_r_1961]

I would just say be very careful of a 700 nm wide weak system. It will trend west under this scenario, how far and for how long is the unknown.

One reason why residents of the mid altantic and SE coasts shouldnt let their guard down just yet. Im not saying Florence affecting that area is likely, merely saying it is not impossible given the large size. Residents of New England ,especially the Cape Cod area and upper Maine, need to pay close attention to Florence as well as residents of the Maritime Provinces. Residents of Bermuda should be prepared for a strong TS or minimal cane of long duration. Regardless of whether or not Florence directly affects the mid atlantic states there will be rough surf with beach erosion and possibly some tidal flooding from the Carolinas northward.

[fci]

I say she turns between 65 and 68

[TampaSteve]

I'd be very surprised to see her even get to 70 west. I anticipate the turn between 65 and 70, based on the trough coming in.

Ditto...I just want to see her start gaining latitude...don't want another Jeanne...

[jenmrk]

Is a Jeanne track even a consideration at this point or any if Florence doesn't make the expected turn soon?

[Rainband]

Is a Jeanne track even a consideration at this point or any if Florence doesn't make the expected turn soon?

no. Jeanne did a loop before hitting florida.

[Lowpressure]

No, but Isabel type track is possible.