TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

[SouthFloridawx]

Well I saw this mornings Quickscatt pass and it looked as though this thing is very large and very broad. Eventhough it is looking disorganized now... is it really possible for something so big to just stop... All the sudden the ciculation just dissapates. I don't think so. This thing is far from dead and it is being sheared from the upper low to its west.

You can see how large the circulation is on this loop.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[cpdaman]

to me it seems there is some mid level southerly shear and some fantom upper level ENE shear creeping in (per latest visual with t'storms blown off to the WEST (or just south of west.

maybe a PROMET could chip in and determine wether i'm off the wall with this 1.

however if that was the case and there was shear coming in opposite direction at opposite levels than this thing could have more stuggles than forecast

[Thunder44]

There really isn't much upper-level or mid-level shear affecting the system. It's pretty much under a ridge aloft now. Just a lack convergence over the center, as wxman57 said, although that appears to be increasing somewhat this afternoon. There are some thunderstorms firing up west of the broad center and starting to wrap around again. The system is also getting larger.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[cpdaman]

thunder in the visible it shows t'storms blowing off to the northeast on the northwest side of the storm and t'stomrs blowing off to the west on the south east side of the storm. what could this be from if not shear?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

does this not look like a system getting torn apart

from the 11 am disc:

SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR

i very well could be wrong i just don't see things adding up

[storms in NC]

The center is almost due west with a north wobble.IMHO

[Derek Ortt]

it is also entraining some of the SAL now. Was able to see that at the HRD briefing

[Bailey1777]

May be the start of something finally, deep convection to the West of the system and actually looks like it might get wrapped. Food for thought.

[cpdaman]

i give up time to sit back and watch and learn

[rainstorm]

it looks horrible. it looks like it is becoming an elongated trough. is it really a ts?

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif

[Thunder44]

thunder in the visible it shows t'storms blowing off to the northeast on the northwest side of the storm and t'stomrs blowing off to the west on the south east side of the storm. what could this be from if not shear?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

does this not look like a system getting torn apart

from the 11 am disc:

SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR

i very well could be wrong i just don't see things adding up

That's all outflow. You have the ULL ventilating the system to the northwest. There may be a some dry air entraining on the south side, but that's only helping to aid more convergence around the center.

[Bailey1777]

Man those tops warmed up quick. I don't know anymore????I feel like you cpdaman.

[Evil Jeremy]

it looks like the NW turn has begun http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

also, the entire south side of it Florence has been sheared off!

[Thunder44]

You all need to step back and look at the Central Atlantic Image. This is storm is becoming a large system. It's getting too large for the floater now.

[Derek Ortt]

may pass east of Bermuda based upon some of the 12Z guidance. A fairly substantial shift right

[rainstorm]

it looks like a big trough right now

[storms in NC]

it looks like the NW turn has begun http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

also, the entire south side of it Florence has been sheared off!

I don't know what you are looking at but it is going W-NW all morning. You can see it on that loop you just posted. I am sorry to disagree with you. And I don't mean any harm. Just the way I see it. Maybe I need new glasses LOL

[curtadams]

There's an enormous LL circulation readily visible on RBG. There's definitely a surface low, and a big and strong one at that. Basically low clouds over the entire floater are doing a nice CCW rotation.

[jimpsummers]

Florence is by far the biggest, ugliest tropical storm I have seen! What a complete mess! Thankfully this season has been almost the opposite of last season. Last season everything developed and quickly, this season nothing develops even when it seems as though it should.

[Bailey1777]

On visible it is definetly moving NW now.

[wxman57]

thunder in the visible it shows t'storms blowing off to the northeast on the northwest side of the storm and t'stomrs blowing off to the west on the south east side of the storm. what could this be from if not shear?...snip

What you've identified is upper-level anticyclonic flow over Florence, an indication of favorable winds aloft, not shear.

I actually think it's FINALLY beginning to look better organized this afternoon. The center appears to be reforming northwest of the previous position, close to those squalls along 55w. That little vortex which was near about 19.4N/53.5W earlier has raced to near 20.5N/54.2W. I believe it'll tuck itself under the convection tonight and Florence will begin to consolidate and intensify.