T.S Florence Models Thread

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SouthFloridawx
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#81 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:50 pm

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#82 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Sep 07, 2006 12:01 am

Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:26 am, edited 3 times in total.
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#83 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:27 am

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#84 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 07, 2006 6:35 am


937
WHXX04 KWBC 071132
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE 06L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.5 52.7 300./ 8.9
6 20.0 53.1 314./ 6.0
12 20.4 54.3 288./11.8
18 21.3 55.1 319./12.0
24 22.2 56.6 303./16.3
30 22.8 58.3 290./16.7
36 23.6 59.5 301./13.6
42 24.0 61.0 285./13.9
48 24.4 62.0 293./10.4
54 25.0 63.1 295./11.7
60 25.5 63.8 306./ 7.9
66 25.8 64.8 291./ 9.2
72 26.4 65.3 316./ 7.8
78 27.1 65.9 321./ 9.0
84 28.0 66.3 338./ 9.0
90 28.9 66.6 341./ 9.6
96 30.0 66.7 352./11.4
102 31.3 66.7 0./12.3
108 32.8 66.6 5./15.1
114 33.9 66.1 25./12.5
120 35.8 65.5 16./18.8
126 37.5 64.7 26./18.4

6z GFDL.
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#85 Postby bjackrian » Thu Sep 07, 2006 7:24 am

This looks to me like even if the storm follows the forecast track, there's a decent enough gradient along the east coast to get some decent winds, especially in eastern MA. Am I looking at this correctly?

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#86 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 07, 2006 12:43 pm

WHXX04 KWBC 071733
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE 06L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.5 53.2 297./ 6.0
6 20.0 53.8 309./ 7.1
12 20.7 54.5 315./ 9.6
18 21.5 55.7 303./13.8
24 22.7 57.2 309./19.1
30 23.1 59.0 282./17.0
36 23.4 60.3 283./11.7
42 23.4 61.0 272./ 6.7
48 23.9 61.4 323./ 6.5
54 24.8 62.3 314./11.7
60 25.2 62.9 304./ 7.5
66 25.7 63.6 308./ 7.6
72 26.4 64.0 330./ 7.9
78 27.3 64.6 322./10.1
84 28.1 64.8 346./ 8.3
90 29.0 65.1 345./10.0
96 30.3 65.0 3./12.5
102 31.8 64.6 14./15.5
108 33.6 64.1 17./18.7
114 35.9 63.6 12./23.0
120 38.2 62.7 20./24.3
126 40.9 61.5 24./28.1

12z GFDL.
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#87 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:01 pm



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.09.2006



TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 53.3W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 07.09.2006 19.7N 53.3W WEAK

00UTC 08.09.2006 21.1N 54.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2006 21.9N 56.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2006 23.8N 58.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2006 24.9N 61.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.09.2006 26.5N 63.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.09.2006 28.7N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.09.2006 31.2N 66.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.09.2006 34.0N 66.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.09.2006 38.0N 63.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.09.2006 42.0N 59.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL

12z UKMET.
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#88 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:12 pm

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#89 Postby storms in NC » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:16 pm

I see what the map is doing But it will not go though a High. And that is what it is showing. Unless the high moves to the east. But I am not a pro met either. :wink:
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#90 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 07, 2006 2:09 pm

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060907 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060907 1800 060908 0600 060908 1800 060909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.3N 54.3W 21.5N 56.8W 22.7N 59.1W 23.8N 60.7W
BAMM 20.3N 54.3W 21.2N 56.6W 22.3N 58.8W 23.4N 60.4W
A98E 20.3N 54.3W 21.6N 56.7W 22.5N 59.0W 23.3N 61.3W
LBAR 20.3N 54.3W 21.5N 56.6W 22.8N 59.2W 24.0N 61.9W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 58KTS 66KTS
DSHP 45KTS 50KTS 58KTS 66KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060909 1800 060910 1800 060911 1800 060912 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.8N 61.7W 26.9N 63.3W 31.1N 64.5W 38.6N 60.0W
BAMM 24.7N 61.7W 27.4N 64.0W 31.0N 65.7W 35.7N 63.6W
A98E 24.1N 63.5W 25.2N 67.0W 25.3N 67.2W 26.8N 64.4W
LBAR 25.1N 64.5W 27.4N 67.9W 29.6N 68.3W 34.6N 66.7W
SHIP 74KTS 88KTS 94KTS 92KTS
DSHP 74KTS 88KTS 94KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.3N LONCUR = 54.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 19.4N LONM12 = 52.5W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 18.7N LONM24 = 51.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 450NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 350NM RD34SE = 250NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 250NM

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#91 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 07, 2006 7:27 pm

WHXX04 KWBC 072328
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE 06L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.2 54.5 300./12.0
6 20.4 54.7 317./ 3.3
12 21.5 55.3 330./12.1
18 22.5 56.5 312./15.3
24 23.1 58.4 286./18.7
30 23.6 59.4 295./10.2
36 24.1 60.4 298./10.9
42 24.7 61.6 298./12.3
48 25.1 62.1 306./ 6.0
54 25.6 62.8 306./ 7.9
60 26.1 63.3 316./ 6.5
66 26.9 63.8 328./ 8.9
72 27.8 64.0 345./ 9.3
78 29.0 64.3 346./12.0
84 29.9 64.3 358./ 9.8
90 31.3 64.2 6./13.9
96 32.9 63.4 27./17.0
102 34.8 62.7 19./20.0
108 36.8 61.9 24./20.7
114 38.6 60.3 40./22.1
120 41.1 58.3 39./29.2
126 43.6 56.4 39./28.5

18z GFDL shifts a little more eastward.
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#92 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Sep 07, 2006 7:37 pm

GFDL is already too far east, by about 50NM

Slowed the thing down to 3KT for no good reason, toss that garbage out
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#93 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 07, 2006 7:49 pm

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060908 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060908 0000 060908 1200 060909 0000 060909 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 55.5W 22.4N 57.8W 23.9N 59.6W 25.4N 60.8W
BAMM 21.0N 55.5W 22.1N 57.7W 23.5N 59.4W 25.0N 60.9W
A98E 21.0N 55.5W 22.3N 58.0W 23.5N 60.2W 24.7N 62.3W
LBAR 21.0N 55.5W 22.5N 58.0W 23.9N 60.7W 25.3N 63.4W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 59KTS 68KTS
DSHP 45KTS 50KTS 59KTS 68KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060910 0000 060911 0000 060912 0000 060913 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.9N 61.4W 30.3N 62.0W 35.6N 59.4W 40.3N 51.5W
BAMM 26.6N 61.9W 30.0N 63.3W 33.9N 63.1W 36.5N 60.3W
A98E 26.2N 64.1W 29.5N 65.7W 32.7N 64.8W 34.2N 61.3W
LBAR 26.6N 65.6W 29.4N 67.6W 33.6N 66.8W 38.5N 62.9W
SHIP 76KTS 90KTS 94KTS 88KTS
DSHP 76KTS 90KTS 94KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.0N LONCUR = 55.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 53.2W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 19.1N LONM24 = 51.9W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 450NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 350NM RD34SE = 250NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 250NM

00:00z Models.Florence a little more faster moving 300 degrees at 13 kts.
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#94 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:17 am

WHXX04 KWBC 081128
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE 06L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 8

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.6 57.2 300./14.0
6 21.8 58.2 286./ 9.2
12 22.4 59.0 304./10.2
18 23.1 59.8 313./ 9.4
24 23.6 60.6 302./ 9.1
30 24.3 61.6 305./11.6
36 24.9 62.3 308./ 8.7
42 25.3 63.0 301./ 7.5
48 25.5 63.5 291./ 4.6
54 26.1 63.7 344./ 6.3
60 26.9 64.1 332./ 9.0
66 27.6 64.2 354./ 7.5
72 28.5 64.6 334./ 9.5
78 29.5 64.6 359./ 9.6
84 30.9 64.4 6./14.3
90 32.5 63.9 19./16.2
96 34.3 63.6 10./18.3
102 36.3 63.0 17./20.4
108 38.5 61.7 31./24.2
114 41.1 59.9 34./29.8
120 44.1 58.7 22./31.3
126 46.6 57.5 26./26.2

6z GFDL now tracks just East of Bermuda.
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#95 Postby Aquawind » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:32 am

6z GFDL now tracks just East of Bermuda.


That would be the best case scenario a possible recurve east of Bermuda and on the weaker side of Florence. Let's hope they all follow along for a quicker recurve at least to the east of Bermuda.
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#96 Postby jusforsean » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:34 am

why is xtrap not folowwing the others ????
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#97 Postby Aquawind » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:38 am

jusforsean wrote:why is xtrap not folowwing the others ????


It's not realy a model. It just shows the current direction.
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#98 Postby Meso » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:38 am

xtrap is just a straight line in the current direction the storm is deading..not meant for forecasting..

edit: and by Deading.. of course I mean heading
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#99 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:48 am

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060908 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060908 1200 060909 0000 060909 1200 060910 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.4N 58.2W 23.5N 60.2W 24.5N 61.5W 25.6N 62.0W
BAMM 22.4N 58.2W 23.6N 59.9W 24.8N 61.2W 26.4N 62.0W
A98E 22.4N 58.2W 23.7N 60.8W 24.9N 62.9W 26.2N 64.7W
LBAR 22.4N 58.2W 23.8N 60.5W 25.1N 62.8W 26.7N 65.0W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 61KTS 70KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 61KTS 70KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060910 1200 060911 1200 060912 1200 060913 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.7N 62.4W 29.8N 63.5W 33.3N 61.7W 35.2N 55.0W
BAMM 28.1N 62.6W 32.0N 62.8W 35.5N 60.7W 37.2N 54.4W
A98E 27.9N 65.8W 30.8N 66.3W 33.3N 64.0W 35.2N 57.7W
LBAR 27.8N 66.4W 30.9N 67.4W 35.1N 65.7W 39.7N 58.4W
SHIP 78KTS 89KTS 91KTS 87KTS
DSHP 78KTS 89KTS 91KTS 87KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.4N LONCUR = 58.2W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 55.5W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 19.7N LONM24 = 53.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 350NM RD34SE = 250NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 250NM

$$

No change in intensity.
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#100 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:38 am

283
WHXX04 KWBC 090532
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE 06L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 9

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.9 60.8 305./14.0
6 24.0 61.9 274./10.5
12 24.8 62.8 315./11.7
18 25.5 63.7 303./10.7
24 26.2 64.1 333./ 8.3
30 27.2 64.5 338./10.9
36 28.2 64.9 338./ 9.9
42 29.3 65.2 344./11.8
48 30.2 65.2 7./ 8.5
54 31.3 65.1 2./11.0
60 32.6 64.6 22./14.4
66 34.2 63.8 25./16.6
72 35.8 63.0 29./17.5
78 37.1 61.8 39./16.3
84 39.1 60.2 40./23.6
90 41.1 58.4 41./24.2
96 43.3 56.8 36./24.2
102 45.4 55.7 27./23.0
108 47.1 54.9 26./17.8
114 47.8 54.0 49./ 9.4
120 48.8 51.8 67./18.0
126 49.6 49.9 67./14.5

Image
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