TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

#461 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:24 pm

Florence is looking horrible right now - completely sheared to bits. Thanks ULLs of 2006

#462 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:24 pm

That is a real consensus of the Global models.

cpdaman · #463 Postby **cpdaman** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:25 pm

so i guess the models think the first trough on the east coast right now is going to lift this thing completly out

or should i put on my dunce cap for the 10'th time today

#464 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:That is a real consensus of the Global models.

Honestly you don't even need the models to tell you where she is going. A simple analysis of the water vapor loop imagery of the NW Atlantic tells the story.

Website · #465 Postby **Brent** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:27 pm

This pathetic excuse for something looks absolutely horrible, just like every other storm this year(minus Ernesto right at landfall). Why is it September 7th and we haven't had a decent storm yet?! :roll:

We can't even get a good fish which completely sucks.

#466 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:29 pm

Brent wrote:This pathetic excuse for something looks absolutely horrible, just like every other storm this year(minus Ernesto right at landfall). Why is it September 7th and we haven't had a decent storm yet?!

We can't even get a good fish which completely sucks.

I was thinking the same thing - so far this season is garbage. The atlantic storms look pathetic. They should ask the EPAC what the secret is :lol:

#467 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:32 pm

I'm not sure what everone is looking at, but Florence hasn't looked this "good" in days. The LLC appears to be relocating next to the convection, possibly near 20.6N/54.7W. That's a sign that the shear has dropped off and it's ready to deepen tonight. Finally looks like it's getting its act together.

#468 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:35 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm not sure what everone is looking at, but Florence hasn't looked this "good" in days. The LLC appears to be relocating next to the convection, possibly near 20.6N/54.7W. That's a sign that the shear has dropped off and it's ready to deepen tonight. Finally looks like it's getting its act together.

But based on water vapor loop analysis, that pesky ULL is still there and you can see it entraining dry air into Florence. I don't expect any rapid strengthening or organization until that stops.

Coredesat · #469 Postby **Coredesat** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:36 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

The visible shows the old LLC dissipating, but you can't really tell if a new one formed.

DESTRUCTION5 · #470 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm not sure what everone is looking at, but Florence hasn't looked this "good" in days. The LLC appears to be relocating next to the convection, possibly near 20.6N/54.7W. That's a sign that the shear has dropped off and it's ready to deepen tonight. Finally looks like it's getting its act together.

Yea wake me up when her eye pops out...I think we will all enjoy that sight...LOL

#471 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:37 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm not sure what everone is looking at, but Florence hasn't looked this "good" in days. The LLC appears to be relocating next to the convection, possibly near 20.6N/54.7W. That's a sign that the shear has dropped off and it's ready to deepen tonight. Finally looks like it's getting its act together.

07/1745 UTC 20.6N 54.2W T2.5/2.5 FLORENCE -- Atlantic Ocean

You got the latitud right but the longitud according to SSD is a tad more east.

Thunder44 · #472 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:37 pm

It's not the best looking system, I agree. But it's not being "sheared to bits". It's expanding and becoming a large and broad system, and it actually looks better organzied than this morning with thunderstorms on the west side of the center and increasing now. There is a large anticyclonic outflow aloft, that causing the system to expand. Just as models have been showing. But the increase in size is happening first, before there is intensification.

You guys are trying to look for something small and compact, but that's not what this system was ever forecasted to be by the models.

#473 Postby **Bailey1777** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:37 pm

That was my thought. I expect to see it ramp up now.

clfenwi · #474 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:40 pm

The eastward shift in the models is understandable when you think about how Florence has made less forward progress than previously forecast.

These were the forecasts from 12Z yesterday for the 12Z position today:

GFS 20.4 55.4
GFDL 21.2 54.0
NOGAPS 21.1 55.6
UKMET 21.8 54.9
Average 21.1 55.0

NHC 20.5 54.5

Verified 19.6 53.1

Overall, while there was a fairly large north bias, the west bias was even larger. Point being is that Florence won't be as far along west as expected when the gap in the ridge opens up.

Thunder44 · #475 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:40 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm not sure what everone is looking at, but Florence hasn't looked this "good" in days. The LLC appears to be relocating next to the convection, possibly near 20.6N/54.7W. That's a sign that the shear has dropped off and it's ready to deepen tonight. Finally looks like it's getting its act together.

Nice to see somebody professional agrees with me.

Derek Ortt · #476 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:43 pm

ther eis only anti-cyclonic flow over the northern half of the system, indicative of southerly shear

cpdaman · #477 Postby **cpdaman** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:45 pm

i am on the fence as to what this thing might do

i would like derricks opinion (u posted as i wrote this nevermind i knew there was southerly shear)

the wv and visible tell two different tails

wv shows very dry air entraining and becoming INCREASINGLY dry on the west and south sides

visible shows llc apparently tucked under where convection was trying to fire earlier

is this what happens when a unusually strong trough in the central atlantic (4 days ago) spits out a big ull and everyone is hoping to see a big hurricane that effects no one and the dry air or shear turn out to be a bigger issue than forecast (what else is new)?

#478 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm not sure what everone is looking at, but Florence hasn't looked this "good" in days. The LLC appears to be relocating next to the convection, possibly near 20.6N/54.7W. That's a sign that the shear has dropped off and it's ready to deepen tonight. Finally looks like it's getting its act together.

07/1745 UTC 20.6N 54.2W T2.5/2.5 FLORENCE -- Atlantic Ocean

You got the latitud right but the longitud according to SSD is a tad more east.

I'd accounted for another hour's movement in my estimate. That little vortex moved 51nm in 3 hours.

#479 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:51 pm

I can start to see convection forming on the SW side...at least on that satellite...

Thunder44 · #480 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:54 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:ther eis only anti-cyclonic flow over the northern half of the system, indicative of southerly shear

I see outflow developing in all quadrants, except on the SW Quad. On water vaper the loop you can see the ULL backing away to the west, so it makes sense that an anticylone aloft is developing over it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

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