TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

[wxman57]

ther eis only anti-cyclonic flow over the northern half of the system, indicative of southerly shear

I see outflow developing in all quadrants, except on the SW Quad. On water vaper the loop you can see the ULL backing away to the west, so it makes sense that an anticylone aloft is developing over it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

I concur, Thunder. Only southwest quadrant is restricted now.

[curtadams]

I'm not sure what everone is looking at, but Florence hasn't looked this "good" in days. The LLC appears to be relocating next to the convection, possibly near 20.6N/54.7W. That's a sign that the shear has dropped off and it's ready to deepen tonight. Finally looks like it's getting its act together.

But based on water vapor loop analysis, that pesky ULL is still there and you can see it entraining dry air into Florence. I don't expect any rapid strengthening or organization until that stops.

With a circ that size, entraining is nearly irrelevant if she gets going. Any intake will have hundreds of miles of stormy ocean to travel over. The intensity of the convection to the east over the past day indicates what is possible. If the convection to the west gets the LLC underneath, it will really take off.

[cpdaman]

i think your posts are a lot more similiar than they seem

sw quadrant being restricted is southerly shear which no matter how light is effecting that quad

no dry air that is another story imo

[CrazyC83]

Isn't it true though that very large cyclones are not very prone to quick changes in intensity as they are so widespread? Like with Hurricane Frances not being able to regain most lost strength despite favorable conditions...