TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[Derek Ortt]

continue here

[cpdaman]

does anyone see how the SW quad will fill in the next 24 hours given the WV loop and the dry air that i see IMO

[Hurricaneman]

Is it possible that if the storm stays weaker, it could miss the trough or delay the north turn by 150 to 200 miles

[clfenwi]

AFWA's position and intensity estimate.

TPNT KGWC 071845
A. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (SIX)
B. 07/1731Z (74)
C. 20.7N/9
D. 54.4W/3
E. THREE/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS -07/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

19A/ PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED
24NM E OF DG YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. FT
BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T3.4 (SHEAR)

BROWN/PRATO

And in case anyone missed it, the SSD's estimate was posted in the previous thread:

07/1745 UTC 20.6N 54.2W T2.5/2.5

[CrazyC83]

T3.0 translates into what intensity? 50 knots? (That is my estimate)

[skysummit]

775
WHXX01 KWBC 071907
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060907 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060907 1800 060908 0600 060908 1800 060909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.3N 54.3W 21.5N 56.8W 22.7N 59.1W 23.8N 60.7W
BAMM 20.3N 54.3W 21.2N 56.6W 22.3N 58.8W 23.4N 60.4W
A98E 20.3N 54.3W 21.6N 56.7W 22.5N 59.0W 23.3N 61.3W
LBAR 20.3N 54.3W 21.5N 56.6W 22.8N 59.2W 24.0N 61.9W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 58KTS 66KTS
DSHP 45KTS 50KTS 58KTS 66KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060909 1800 060910 1800 060911 1800 060912 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.8N 61.7W 26.9N 63.3W 31.1N 64.5W 38.6N 60.0W
BAMM 24.7N 61.7W 27.4N 64.0W 31.0N 65.7W 35.7N 63.6W
A98E 24.1N 63.5W 25.2N 67.0W 25.3N 67.2W 26.8N 64.4W
LBAR 25.1N 64.5W 27.4N 67.9W 29.6N 68.3W 34.6N 66.7W
SHIP 74KTS 88KTS 94KTS 92KTS
DSHP 74KTS 88KTS 94KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.3N LONCUR = 54.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 19.4N LONM12 = 52.5W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 18.7N LONM24 = 51.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 450NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 350NM RD34SE = 250NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 250NM

$$

[WxGuy1]

Is it possible that if the storm stays weaker, it could miss the trough or delay the north turn by 150 to 200 miles

You can read my 2cents on this HERE.

[wxman57]

T3.0 translates into what intensity? 50 knots? (That is my estimate)

T3.0 = 45 kts:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[gatorcane]

WxGuy I can't believe the cooler temps moving in behind the trough for next week. 40s in the upper mid-west and NE

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfs ... mp_144.gif


*edited by staff to make the image a link - it was too large and required scrolling to read each line on the page

[curtadams]

On the 18:45 navy image the LLC appears to have reached the convection to the west and is generating a spurt of convection. I don't expect it to fill in the SW side - we will now see a relatively small true cyclone form, surrounded by this huge area of diffuse low pressure and weak TS winds.

[PTrackerLA]

Very nice blow up NW of the LLC. Is all the convection to the east of Florence directly associated with it? Looks like one large feeder band. I don't think I ever remember a seeing a circulation this large (at least not in recent years). She could put on quite a show while staying a fish.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[WxGuy1]

WxGuy I can't believe the cooler temps moving in behind the trough for next week. 40s in the upper mid-west and NE

Remember that there is ambiguity when you only say "trough". You are referring to the area behind the upper-level trough, which is also in the area of surface ridging! The surface troughing reflection of the upper-level trough tends to be displaced about 1/4 wavelength downstream of the trough axis. In other words, the most conducive conditions of development and sustainance of a surface Low and/or trough is downstream of the trough (east of the trough axis in most cases in the northern hemisphere). Behind the upper-level trough axis (and ahead of the upper-level ridge axis), there tends to be surface ridging (owing to ageostrophic curvature convergence aloft -- don't worry about that). So, it's not so much the upper-level trough that's bringing the cooler air, it's the surface High.

Of course, the two are connected ('colder' air at the sfc temps to mean higher surface pressures and lower heights aloft), but this is a very general sense.

This just serves as a reminder for all this board to try to describe what "trough" or "ridge" you are addressing. Is it an upper-level trough? A surface trough? A mid-level ridge? These features are not always colocated with each other (in the three previous questions, they aren't ever really colocated with each other). At any rate, flow associated with these features can very drastically, so it does help to know if you are talking about upper-level trough or a low-level trough (for example).

[gatorcane]

thanks WxGuy for the explanation

[curtadams]

Very nice blow up NW of the LLC. Is all the convection to the east of Florence directly associated with it? Looks like one large feeder band. I don't think I ever remember a seeing a circulation this large (at least not in recent years). She could put on quite a show while staying a fish.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

I don't think any of the convection on that shot is associated directly with Florence. The burst near 55W 20N may be about to become directly associated with the LLC.

[wxman57]

Here's a nice McIDAS image. Center is tucking under the convection now.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florence18.gif

[storms in NC]

Very nice blow up NW of the LLC. Is all the convection to the east of Florence directly associated with it? Looks like one large feeder band. I don't think I ever remember a seeing a circulation this large (at least not in recent years). She could put on quite a show while staying a fish.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Here is a picture of Floyd see how BIG he was

http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/rsd/images/Flo ... 259_md.jpg

[whereverwx]

Her structure has changed a lot over the past day. It will be interesting to see what the next diurnal maximum will bring.

[storms in NC]

I don't know how you all do this but this is how I do. This morning it was 19.5N 52.4 W now is 20.6W 54.2 W so it has moved 1.1 north and 2.2 West that would be W-NW

[wxman57]

A 1945Z McIDAS close-up of the center. Center is now under the convection as indicted by the red circle:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence19.gif

[Derek Ortt]

This blob is lacking any banding features.

I am not sure that it is intensifying at the present time, though this burst may prevent it from weakening, as it appeared to be doing earlier.

I am also getting a center a little SW of your fix

http://www.nwhhc.com/florence.gif

well... I see the cursor did not stay up, my fix is near 20.3 and 55.4