Trough and Frontal System Across GOM

[Extremeweatherguy]

>>I agree that the GOM now seems to likely have shut down for the season

Not a chance. While there may not be any more systems this year (which I highly doubt), next year would be stacking up to crank. Even so, think Matthew, Lili, Wilma, etc. of the last few years (among others). Gulf season doesn't shut down until late mid-late October. And even still, June, July and most of August < October to begin with.

Steve

if you would have read on though, you would have seen I then wrote this:

I agree that the GOM now seems to likely have shut down for the season, but with that being said..I am in no way ready to let my guard down. The NWS is not forecasting any future fronts to affect the area over at least the next week. If our fronts shut off and are replaced by a ridge (which I have heard is a possibility), then we could be open for business once again.

It really all depends on how the next week or two plays out. By then we should be able to see if this is just a false start to fall or the real thing..

^^I doubt this is the real start though, because the HPC shows no more fronts over the next week, and JB thinks we are heading back to a 2006 June/July pattern but "late september style".^^

After reviewing more forecasts though, I am not sure if I even agree with my original statement of it being shut down anymore. With no more fronts in the forecast, I think the entire GOM could remian open for a few more weeks. Homegrown or caribbean storms look to be the key threat for the rest of September. However, I would also not be surprised if nothing else threatened the GOM this year. Really it is just a wait and see situation until something forms or not.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Though no fronts are forecasted, I think the latest Houston AFD is interesting. Here is part of it:

DEPENDING UPON MODEL
PREFERENCE...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A RATHER STRONG CF
BARRELING IN NEXT WEEK (PER GFSLR) OR A SLIGHTLY DRIER/SUMMER PAT-
TERN WILL PREVAIL (PER ECMWF). WILL LIKELY HEDGE A GREAT DEAL ATTM
BUT LEAN A BIT MORE ON THE DRY SIDE. SEPTEMBER IS STILL A TAD SOON
FOR THESE AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONTS (AND NOT TO MENTION BEING SLIGHT-
LY LEERY OF THE RATHER ABRUPT CHANGE THE GFS HAS PRODUCED FOR THIS
RUN IN THE EXTENDED).

Basically next week is up in the air. If the GFS is right, then a very strong front should barrel into the region, bringing an official change of seasons. However, if the ECMWF is correct, then we can expect a drier, hotter pattern similar to a typical September (meaning more of a tropical risk).

I guess we will have to see what ends up happening, but FTM the NWS is calling for the ECMWF to be correct.

[ROCK]

Though no fronts are forecasted, I think the latest Houston AFD is interesting. Here is part of it:

DEPENDING UPON MODEL
PREFERENCE...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A RATHER STRONG CF
BARRELING IN NEXT WEEK (PER GFSLR) OR A SLIGHTLY DRIER/SUMMER PAT-
TERN WILL PREVAIL (PER ECMWF). WILL LIKELY HEDGE A GREAT DEAL ATTM
BUT LEAN A BIT MORE ON THE DRY SIDE. SEPTEMBER IS STILL A TAD SOON
FOR THESE AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONTS (AND NOT TO MENTION BEING SLIGHT-
LY LEERY OF THE RATHER ABRUPT CHANGE THE GFS HAS PRODUCED FOR THIS
RUN IN THE EXTENDED).

Basically next week is up in the air. If the GFS is right, then a very strong front should barrel into the region, bringing an official change of seasons. However, if the ECMWF is correct, then we can expect a drier, hotter pattern similar to a typical September (meaning more of a tropical risk).

I guess we will have to see what ends up happening, but FTM the NWS is calling for the ECMWF to be correct.

I believe it....Just some food for thought even though this is la la land...

18z GFS 384hr

18z NAM 84hr

[Opal storm]

Uh...GOM shut down for the season?The two biggest hurricanes I have ever personally experienced in my life made landfall here DURING September and October (Ivan and Opal).I am not saying we are in for another storm like that this season,but usually the tropical activity in the Gulf doesn't come to a end until late October when the cold fronts start really coming down and clearing out the Gulf.It's still 90+ degrees outside everyday and the Gulf is as warm as a bath tub,it's still hurricane season here folks.

[TSmith274]

I agree that the GOM now seems to likely have shut down for the season

Come on now. Don't we all know enough not to say things like that?

[Stratosphere747]

LOL....

Only one person said anything about the GOM being "shut down" and that was more tongue-in-cheek, along with being directed at the WGOM.

The fact is as the season progresses, Texas continues to see the chances diminish of any significant system impacting the state. Always the possibility, but the target area definitely shifts to the NGOM, and especially west coast of Florida.

[southerngale]

The fact is as the season progresses, Texas continues to see the chances diminish of any significant system impacting the state. Always the possibility, but the target area definitely shifts to the NGOM, and especially west coast of Florida.

Yeah, I always start to feel better with each passing day of September, but I think it's too early to shake that Rita hit here on September 24th. That was pretty late for the Western GOM, but I will feel a lot better once we pass that timeframe. Everywhere I go, there are a lot of nervous people who cannot wait for Hurricane Season to end.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I agree that the GOM now seems to likely have shut down for the season

Come on now. Don't we all know enough not to say things like that?

Why are people leaving out all my other comments and only quoting this one? I clearly say after this that I am not letting my guard down just yet. Also, later on after doing a little more research I came back (with a new post) and said I no longer agree with that statement and that we should wait a few more weeks before calling the GOM season over.

I think I will go back and edit my first comment.

Overall though, my true opinion ATM is that we should continue to watch closely over the next few weeks and we can not let our guard down until October.

[Stratosphere747]

The fact is as the season progresses, Texas continues to see the chances diminish of any significant system impacting the state. Always the possibility, but the target area definitely shifts to the NGOM, and especially west coast of Florida.

Yeah, I always start to feel better with each passing day of September, but I think it's too early to shake that Rita hit here on September 24th. That was pretty late for the Western GOM, but I will feel a lot better once we pass that timeframe. Everywhere I go, there are a lot of nervous people who cannot wait for Hurricane Season to end.

Very true Kelly. Many of us understand that the potential exists and will always keep a weary eye out. But it takes a special type of set-up to see a true major head our way, later in the season. I'm hoping Rita will be "it" for the foreseeable future.

[Portastorm]

... and somehow my initial post about the WESTERN Gulf being closed for the season has evolved into the entire Gulf! Gang, I would never suggest that the entire Gulf is closed for this tropical season. No way, no how.

But I do insist that I would be highly surprised to see any significant tropical activity in the western Gulf this year. And I base my thoughts on observed patterns this season along with documented neutral-to-El Nino ENSO conditions and the historical analogs.

I provided some historical support in an earlier post that once September and October roll around with these kinds on ENSO conditions, the western Gulf is usually pretty quiet. I cannot and won't speak for the Central or Eastern Gulf. I'm just looking at primarily 94 degrees longitude and west of that.

Yes, we all konw about Rita ... but last season had different ENSO parameters at play as well as other conditions that fostered a positive environment for tropical cyclone development.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Though no fronts are forecasted, I think the latest Houston AFD is interesting. Here is part of it:

DEPENDING UPON MODEL
PREFERENCE...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A RATHER STRONG CF
BARRELING IN NEXT WEEK (PER GFSLR) OR A SLIGHTLY DRIER/SUMMER PAT-
TERN WILL PREVAIL (PER ECMWF). WILL LIKELY HEDGE A GREAT DEAL ATTM
BUT LEAN A BIT MORE ON THE DRY SIDE. SEPTEMBER IS STILL A TAD SOON
FOR THESE AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONTS (AND NOT TO MENTION BEING SLIGHT-
LY LEERY OF THE RATHER ABRUPT CHANGE THE GFS HAS PRODUCED FOR THIS
RUN IN THE EXTENDED).

Basically next week is up in the air. If the GFS is right, then a very strong front should barrel into the region, bringing an official change of seasons. However, if the ECMWF is correct, then we can expect a drier, hotter pattern similar to a typical September (meaning more of a tropical risk).

I guess we will have to see what ends up happening, but FTM the NWS is calling for the ECMWF to be correct.

I believe it....Just some food for thought even though this is la la land...

18z GFS 384hr

18z NAM 84hr

very interesting to see those two low pressure areas on the models. Hopefully they are not hinting at things to come..

[Johnny]

I understand what you are saying EWG. Do you need a hug? I'll get southerngale to give ya one.


I guess she had other plans. hehe just funnin' with ya man.

[HeeBGBz]

I keep watching the area around the Dominican Republic. It flares up then goes away a bit. Did that last night too. It's still moving westerly. No rotation, though.

[Robjohn53]

I don't trust anything just as of yet the calm always has somthing in store not sure where but it dose. It's like sleeping and when it wakes look out....I also tend to worry more about what i can't see then what i do... So ya never know just yet whats to come.....

[timNms]

Sorry Kat ... but you know I'm going to respectfully disagree.

No trouble, no home brew, no problem. Western Gulf is closed for the tropical season. See you next year.

Are you talking landfalls in the Western Gulf area, or something developing in the Western Gulf? In my opinion, landfalls in that area are becoming less likely. However, storm formation in that area can happen late in the season. I think Opal and Roxanne were in the Western Gulf at one time.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't trust anything just as of yet the calm always has somthing in store not sure where but it dose. It's like sleeping and when it wakes look out....I also tend to worry more about what i can't see then what i do... So ya never know just yet whats to come.....

I agree. If something does enter the GOM right now I don't think it will be a weak system. The GOM has major storm written all over it. The question is though...can something spin up in there before the season ends? If so, then watch out gulf coast!

[Portastorm]

Sorry Kat ... but you know I'm going to respectfully disagree.

No trouble, no home brew, no problem. Western Gulf is closed for the tropical season. See you next year.

Are you talking landfalls in the Western Gulf area, or something developing in the Western Gulf? In my opinion, landfalls in that area are becoming less likely. However, storm formation in that area can happen late in the season. I think Opal and Roxanne were in the Western Gulf at one time.

Mainly talking landfalls but I would probably include formation as well. You know, I wouldn't just say this in any old year because I am aware like the rest of you about what has formed in the western Gulf in years past. But if you look at similar years with similar ENSO conditions, you'll see what I mean. Talking about 1963, 1977, 1986, and 2004. All years had a neutral ENSO phase that transitioned into a mild El Nino in the fall ... which is what is happening now.

[Johnny]

After reading the discussion out of the Houston/Galveston office this morning, it looks like the ECMWF along with the GFS is picking up on a strong trough to push down by the middle of next week. Here's a clippet from this mornings discussion.


THE CHANGE IN TODAY'S MODEL RUNS TAKES
PLACE BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
ECMWF SHOW A SIGNIFICANT 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS.

[PTrackerLA]

After reading the discussion out of the Houston/Galveston office this morning, it looks like the ECMWF along with the GFS is picking up on a strong trough to push down by the middle of next week. Here's a clippet from this mornings discussion.


THE CHANGE IN TODAY'S MODEL RUNS TAKES
PLACE BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
ECMWF SHOW A SIGNIFICANT 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS.

I feel better and better every day. Looks like we'll get a year off thank god. Hopefully I'm right but things are so quiet right now I feel pretty good about that prediction. I'm only referring to Louisiana-westward.

[Stormcenter]

After reading the discussion out of the Houston/Galveston office this morning, it looks like the ECMWF along with the GFS is picking up on a strong trough to push down by the middle of next week. Here's a clippet from this mornings discussion.


THE CHANGE IN TODAY'S MODEL RUNS TAKES
PLACE BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
ECMWF SHOW A SIGNIFICANT 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS.

I feel better and better every day. Looks like we'll get a year off thank god. Hopefully I'm right but things are so quiet right now I feel pretty good about that prediction. I'

I'm only referring to Louisiana-westward.

Amen.