TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[Stormavoider]

19N 53W based on this.

[Evil Jeremy]

another center relocation?

[Thunder44]

WOW.

FLORENCE IS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES...650 KM FROM THE
CENTER. A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH.

Not suprised. Told you guys it was getting bigger.

so here goes a supid question pending it does the turn thing then at what point west would it have to get for fla to feel some part of her if shes already soooooooooooo big?

It doesn't need to get any farther west than 74W to bring TS force winds to the South FL East coast. That's assuming it continues going straight WNW, which I doubt it will highly.

[Stormavoider]

another center relocation?

Most likely not. I'm not sure about the times on those quickscats.

[curtadams]

Curtadams don't know where you are coming up with this wrapping up into a relatively small system?

There's a huge low-level circ. But I don't expect most of that to feed into Florence for quite some time. I expect it will mostly do what it's been doing - generating scattered convection not related to the core of the system. Right now Florence is just the blob at 55W 21N - not all that big. The rest of it is effectively a surface low which has been generating TS force winds.

[curtadams]

19N 53W based on this.

That's fairly old - 9Z, or about 11 hours ago (check the purple times on the bottom for the pass times - number on top is the report time). That's about where the LLC was, based on what you could see on visible. Said LLC is now under the convection around 21N 55W. - you could watch it all day.

[Stormavoider]

19N 53W based on this.

That's fairly old - 9Z, or about 11 hours ago (check the purple times on the bottom for the pass times - number on top is the report time). That's about where the LLC was, based on what you could see on visible. Said LLC is now under the convection around 21N 55W. - you could watch it all day.

Thank you. I thought I was not getting the time right on those.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I don't really trust the center fixes in all that mess. Hell looks like there could be several transient centers rotating around a common point to me. I'll put much greater faith in them once recon actually gets in there.

[storms in NC]

do I see a eye comeing though that blob?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks to me that convection has fired over a center, and the center has started to develop a central core. Overall this thing go from 45 to 62 west/15-22 north.

Every lat is 60 miles so you have 10=600 miles. 60x17=1,020 miles across...Plus you got it from 15-22 north which is another 7 degres...Or 420 miles. That is assuming that that clouds to its east is part of the system. I think the system is starting to become alot better organized.

[Thunder44]

do I see a eye comeing though that blob?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

No, you are seeing the reflection of sunset on the high cloud tops from thunderstorms blow-up up around the center.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its organizing nicely now...Convection firing over the huge LLC.

[marcane_1973]

Florence looks awful and is still getting sheared and dry air is getting into the system as you can clearly see on water vapor. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg I do not think this will be much of a big dealio for Bermuda as they have seen much worse storms in the past. This is not a forecast by any means. I just take 1 day at a time and Florence at the moment looks no where near as good when Ernesto was just off the NC. S.C. border. I think the future intensity on this strom is a little over done in my opinion. Hopefully Bermuda will only be looking at a CAT 1 Hurricane and the storm will continue to struggle till she gets near there.

[Sanibel]

As Florence recurves more north it will put the large ULL to its SW where it will vent. Should see a big change when that happens.

[Trugunzn]

So is it going WNW still? What do u think?

[gatorcane]

So is it going WNW still? What do u think?

looks like it is trying to bend W to me...where is the turn?

[wxman57]

So is it going WNW still? What do u think?

looks like it is trying to bend W to me...where is the turn?

It continues moving toward about 295 degrees this evening. Not much change in direction for another 48 hours. I estimate the center to be near 21.3N/55.6W at 00Z. Can't really see it on IR satellite, but extrapolation over the past couple of hours places it near the eastern edge of the convective complex.

18Z dynamic models shifted eastward and are now centered over Bermuda. Looks very unlikely it will be any threat to the east U.S. Coast. Bermuda could see a major hurricane, though.

[Trugunzn]

just came out

[Derek Ortt]

this would probably be much worse than fabian 3 years ago if it scores a direct hit on Bermuda due to the size, which would result in significantly higher tidal surges and waves, plus a longer duration of destructive winds

[Epsilon_Fan]

looks like Flo is finally starting to wrap herself up after all this time