TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[wxman57]

Here are the 18Z model plots. 00Z soon:

[Stormavoider]

Looking at the NHC forecast track, It should soon start easing that steering wheel to the right about now.

[cycloneye]

07/2345 UTC 20.9N 55.7W T2.5/2.5 FLORENCE


wxman57,this time SSD is not in accord with you estimated position at 00z.But it's not too far.

[wxman57]

07/2345 UTC 20.9N 55.7W T2.5/2.5 FLORENCE


wxman57,this time SSD is not in accord with you estimated position at 00z.But it's not too far.

Like I said, can't really see the center, can only extrapolate. I believe the SSD will say that their estimate is within 60nm or so (a degree).

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 080014
A. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (SIX)
B. 07/2331Z (74)
C. 21.0N/3
D. 54.8W/7
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS -07/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

47A/ PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED
17NM INTO DG YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. FT BASED
ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.0 (SHEAR)

SCHAEFER

Air Force sat estimates.Wxman57,the Air Force position is more closer to your estimate.

[Derek Ortt]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds99.png

QS center is SW of the SSD position

[CrazyC83]

What is AODT?

Also, those purples on the Quikscat are winds in the 40s?

[Josephine96]

Looks like based on models.. it should start turning pretty soon..

[wxman57]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBds99.png

QS center is SW of the SSD position

QS pass was over 2 hours earlier, though. That would allow for about 0.4 to 0.5 deg movement between 22Z-00Z. 00Z estimate was around 21N. But all these estimates are just that, estimates. With mid and upper clouds obscuring the LLC, we're all just guessing until recon gets there tomorrow night or until an eye opens up.

[wxman57]

Looks like based on models.. it should start turning pretty soon..

The models don't show any change in course for 48 hours - Saturday night.

[Derek Ortt]

but by the same token, the center would be even farther west, more under the convection

Would also make the GFDL solution of east of Bermuda a little more absurred

Not to mention, good old GFS had the high too weak bvased upon 12Z Bermuda obs

[wxman57]

but by the same token, the center would be even farther west, more under the convection

Would also make the GFDL solution of east of Bermuda a little more absurred

Not to mention, good old GFS had the high too weak bvased upon 12Z Bermuda obs

Perhaps 21.1N/55.9W at 0045Z?

[Josephine96]

48 hours is still considered "pretty soon" in my book..

[shaggy]

she has got to be one of the weirdest storms i have seen i along time.So broad and as hard as it was to find her center lastnight along with her huge windfield almost had me thinking she was more of a hybrid type system by sat appearance.Models are all in good agreement so i am not worried but i guess theres always that spot in the back of my mind that is skeptical until i actually see the turn happen!

[f5]

WOW.

FLORENCE IS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES...650 KM FROM THE
CENTER. A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH.

imagine if she was a CAT 5 at that size

[AJC3]

What is AODT?

It's the acronym for "Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique", a method for estimating TC intensity from satellite imagery.


Original ODT Article
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/resea ... k/odt.html

Wikipedia article
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique

[pgoss11]

can anyone tell me if the center if circulation is under the area where the convection seems to be right now or is it off to the sw of that

[EDR1222]

Good grief! Just got home and read the 5 pm advisory. Winds extending outward 405 miles from the center. I know its only a tropical storm, but I don't recall seeing a storm that size before.

[HURAKAN]

A CHANGING FLORENCE!!!

[CrazyC83]

I'd say she has strengthened some.