Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[cycloneye]

750
WTNT21 KNHC 080230
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
0300 UTC FRI SEP 08 2006

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 56.1W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......350NE 250SE 0SW 250NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 100SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 56.1W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 55.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.3N 58.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...325NE 250SE 0SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.7N 60.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 85NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 250SE 60SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...275NE 275SE 100SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 42.0N 58.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 56.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

449
WTNT41 KNHC 080229
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 07 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLORENCE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED
WITH AN ELONGATED SHAPELESS CLOUD PATTERN WHICH IS NOT VERY TYPICAL
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT..CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB
AND TAFB DO NOT SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER...
USING CONTINUITY AND QUIKSCAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

I CANNOT FIND ANY REAL GOOD REASON WHY FLORENCE HAS NOT YET
INTENSIFIED SINCE THE INGREDIENTS COMMONLY USED TO FORECAST
STRENGTHENING ARE PRESENT. THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM...ABOUT 29
DEGREES CELSIUS ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND
THERE IS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEGUN TO
BACK OFF A LITTLE. THE ONLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INTENSITY CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL ARE THE TEMPERATURES
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AND THE HUMIDITY. HAVING SAID THAT...I HAVE
NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING AGAIN.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN....HOWEVER...I AM
CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND WITHIN WELL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...FLORENCE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE TRACK MODELS. THIS FORECAST WOULD BRING
THE CYCLONE NEAR BERMUDA IN A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 21.3N 56.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 22.3N 58.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 23.7N 60.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 25.0N 62.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 26.5N 64.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 30.0N 65.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 42.0N 58.0W 90 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

[Josephine96]

So this dang thing is still @ 50 mph huh?

[AnnularCane]

I CANNOT FIND ANY REAL GOOD REASON WHY FLORENCE HAS NOT YET
INTENSIFIED SINCE THE INGREDIENTS COMMONLY USED TO FORECAST
STRENGTHENING ARE PRESENT. THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM...ABOUT 29
DEGREES CELSIUS ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND
THERE IS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEGUN TO
BACK OFF A LITTLE. THE ONLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INTENSITY CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL ARE THE TEMPERATURES
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AND THE HUMIDITY. HAVING SAID THAT...I HAVE
NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING AGAIN.

I'm confused. Wasn't she struggling against unfavorable conditions all day?

[Josephine96]

Can we put this 1 in the morale lifting discussions

[cycloneye]

I CANNOT FIND ANY REAL GOOD REASON WHY FLORENCE HAS NOT YET
INTENSIFIED SINCE THE INGREDIENTS COMMONLY USED TO FORECAST
STRENGTHENING ARE PRESENT. THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM...ABOUT 29
DEGREES CELSIUS ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND
THERE IS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEGUN TO
BACK OFF A LITTLE. THE ONLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INTENSITY CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL ARE THE TEMPERATURES
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AND THE HUMIDITY. HAVING SAID THAT...I HAVE
NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING AGAIN.

I'm confused. Wasn't she struggling against unfavorable conditions all day?

I want to clarify that I didn't wrote that at the quote. It's a portion from the 11 PM discussion.

[Rieyeuxs]

I CANNOT FIND ANY REAL GOOD REASON WHY FLORENCE HAS NOT YET
INTENSIFIED SINCE THE INGREDIENTS COMMONLY USED TO FORECAST
STRENGTHENING ARE PRESENT. THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM...ABOUT 29
DEGREES CELSIUS ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND
THERE IS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEGUN TO
BACK OFF A LITTLE. THE ONLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INTENSITY CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL ARE THE TEMPERATURES
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AND THE HUMIDITY. HAVING SAID THAT...I HAVE
NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING AGAIN.

You get the feeling that the NHC is finding this season just a tad frustrating too?

[Josephine96]

LOL.. I like "I can't find any good reason why Florence has not yet intensified"

[Josephine96]

NHC: "why aint this darn thing a Cat 1/2 like we forecast" "Come on Flo Jo, lets go! {Max or Stewart slams fist while sitting at computer}

[Meso]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 080847
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM AST FRI SEP 08 2006

...FLORENCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE WILL LIKELY ISSUE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST OR ABOUT 445
MILES...720 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
830 MILES...1340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH FLORENCE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES...650 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...22.1 N...57.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

067
WTNT31 KNHC 081439
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 08 2006

...FLORENCE APPEARS TO BE READY TO STRENGTHEN...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE WILL LIKELY ISSUE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES...675 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
730 MILES...1175 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES...650 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.0 N...59.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

620
WTNT41 KNHC 081440
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006

THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SHAPELESS WITH VERY ASYMMETRIC
CONVECTION...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 35 KNOTS. I
WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER THE INTENSITY BUT I WILL HOLD IT AT 45 KNOTS
FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY AND BASED ON SEVERAL..BUT LESS RELIABLE
HI-RES QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS ON THE EDGE OF THE SWATH. FLORENCE
HAS REFUSED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IN THE TROPICS...LIKE MOST THE
SYSTEMS SO FAR THIS YEAR. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY
TO DO SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND BEFORE THE
SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD BECOME AN
INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR FLORENCE
SEEMS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT THERE MUST BE ONE
GIVEN THE LARGE AND WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION OF THE STORM. THE
AVERAGE MOTION OF THE LARGE GYRE IS ESTIMATED AT 300/15. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND FLORENCE CONTINUES
MOVING AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE
IS CLUSTERED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...ALL MODELS SHOW
THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN BUT THEY VARY ON THE FORWARD SPEED.

DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...THE
BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE WILL LIKELY ISSUE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
LATER TODAY.

NOTE: LAST TWO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES PRIOR TO SENDING THIS
ADVISORY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION.
IF THIS TREND TOWARD ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...SCIENCE WILL HAVE
PREVAILED.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 23.0N 59.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 23.8N 60.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 25.5N 63.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 27.0N 64.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 28.5N 65.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 39.0N 60.0W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1200Z 48.0N 49.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tro ... OUS42.KNHC

Here is the plan of the day for saturday and sunday.

No changes about the first mission that will depart at the same time it was said before,and that will be at 11:30 PM EDT tonight from St Croix.

[CrazyC83]

Question: once north of Bermuda in the north Atlantic and threatening land, where do flights originate from?

[Nimbus]

They could find a hurricane Saturday. In any event the data will help the model runs predict the future effects on Bermuda.

[Droop12]

Haha, that 11am discussion is a good one. Note the very end.

[CrazyC83]

Could a special advisory be issued if an eye is indeed forming?

[cycloneye]

045
WTNT31 KNHC 082030
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM AST FRI SEP 08 2006

...FLORENCE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...BUT IT COULD TONIGHT...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST OR ABOUT 645
MILES...1040 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FLORENCE IS LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 375 MILES...600 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...23.9 N...60.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



013
WTNT21 KNHC 082030
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2006

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 60.1W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......325NE 250SE 0SW 250NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 250SE 100SW 325NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 60.1W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 59.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.9N 61.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 250SE 50SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.5N 63.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 250SE 60SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...275NE 275SE 100SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 42.0N 57.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 47.1N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 60.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA